I think we're at the "Obama fret" stage again, lots of articles focusing on Obama's "problems," but the thing is, the polls really haven't moved at all. (NYTimes Obama +6
, Quinnipac Obama +9
, Reuters/Zogby Obama +7
, ABC Obama +8 (.pdf
The NYTimes has a large, very troubling sounding front page article
about Obama and a racial divide, but there are two pretty big points there.
First, "Over all, Mr. Obama leads Mr. McCain among all registered voters by 45 percent to 39 percent."
Second, because of the racial makeup of the parties, you would expect a certain amount of a "racial gap" no matter who was running as the lilly white Republicans go against the Democrat. Democratic candidates always have something of a racial gap.
The one thing I think this does indicate is that the McCain campaign has had some success in turning this election into a referendum on Obama, so the press is carrying the questions.
The Obama challenge, which will become much more apparent as we get closer to the convention, is to return this election to a referendum on Bush/GOP rule.
The bottom line is that it's still Obama +5 to +8 across almost all the polling, and the fundamental campaign pieces still favor Obama, money, enthusiasm, state organizations, volunteers, etc.
So, although it will likely rise again and again, let's just put the Obama fret down for now and back away from the ledge, okay?Later
: Perhaps one of the better examples of the "Obama fret" is this ABC poll report (.pdf)
I just came across which begins with all of Obama's "problems" only to later reveal that he polls +8 at 50%.
Later still: Is this new round of "Obama fret" the result of new McCain campaign manager Steve Schmidt?