Obama still +5 to +8, yet the "Obama fret" returns
I think we're at the "Obama fret" stage again, lots of articles focusing on Obama's "problems," but the thing is, the polls really haven't moved at all. (NYTimes Obama +6, Quinnipac Obama +9, Reuters/Zogby Obama +7, ABC Obama +8 (.pdf).)
The NYTimes has a large, very troubling sounding front page article about Obama and a racial divide, but there are two pretty big points there.
First, "Over all, Mr. Obama leads Mr. McCain among all registered voters by 45 percent to 39 percent."
Second, because of the racial makeup of the parties, you would expect a certain amount of a "racial gap" no matter who was running as the lilly white Republicans go against the Democrat. Democratic candidates always have something of a racial gap.
The one thing I think this does indicate is that the McCain campaign has had some success in turning this election into a referendum on Obama, so the press is carrying the questions.
The Obama challenge, which will become much more apparent as we get closer to the convention, is to return this election to a referendum on Bush/GOP rule.
The bottom line is that it's still Obama +5 to +8 across almost all the polling, and the fundamental campaign pieces still favor Obama, money, enthusiasm, state organizations, volunteers, etc.
So, although it will likely rise again and again, let's just put the Obama fret down for now and back away from the ledge, okay?
Later: Perhaps one of the better examples of the "Obama fret" is this ABC poll report (.pdf) I just came across which begins with all of Obama's "problems" only to later reveal that he polls +8 at 50%.
Later still: Is this new round of "Obama fret" the result of new McCain campaign manager Steve Schmidt?
The NYTimes has a large, very troubling sounding front page article about Obama and a racial divide, but there are two pretty big points there.
First, "Over all, Mr. Obama leads Mr. McCain among all registered voters by 45 percent to 39 percent."
Second, because of the racial makeup of the parties, you would expect a certain amount of a "racial gap" no matter who was running as the lilly white Republicans go against the Democrat. Democratic candidates always have something of a racial gap.
The one thing I think this does indicate is that the McCain campaign has had some success in turning this election into a referendum on Obama, so the press is carrying the questions.
The Obama challenge, which will become much more apparent as we get closer to the convention, is to return this election to a referendum on Bush/GOP rule.
The bottom line is that it's still Obama +5 to +8 across almost all the polling, and the fundamental campaign pieces still favor Obama, money, enthusiasm, state organizations, volunteers, etc.
So, although it will likely rise again and again, let's just put the Obama fret down for now and back away from the ledge, okay?
Later: Perhaps one of the better examples of the "Obama fret" is this ABC poll report (.pdf) I just came across which begins with all of Obama's "problems" only to later reveal that he polls +8 at 50%.
Later still: Is this new round of "Obama fret" the result of new McCain campaign manager Steve Schmidt?
posted by mikevotes at
6:29 AM
6 Comments:
It's interesting to me that the Obama Fret thing is all about perceptions of race and political marketing, not about an actual fear of his policies or ideas.
Meanwhile, no one's "fretting" that McCain seems to be woefully ignorant about the middle east (not knowing sunni from shia, arab from persain), his seeming intellectual rut stuck in the cold war (referring to Czechoslovakia), his constant self contradiction and his penchant to simply blurt out made up "facts" to support his position du jour.
But I guess the corporate media is all about hairspray and makeup... not actual, you know, journalism.
By
-epm, at 9:16 AM
Good point. To some degree I would say there's an "inexperience" thing behind the "Obama fret", but, yeah, a good part of it lies in the way the 24 hour cables news thing is structured.
It benefits from fairly factless opinion/pontificating. It's a pretty poor medium for delivering information.
By
mikevotes, at 10:49 AM
Yeah. I thought about the "inexperience" "fear" after I posted my comment. I think his experience, or lack of it, is a legitimate issue. Obama has been addressing this since the beginning of the primaries. I think he's countered this to some degree by acting "presidential." When people are actually given the opportunity to see and hear his own words, they feel more comfortable, but the experience thing will probably be an issue throughout the campaign.
By
-epm, at 11:27 AM
And I think that the "experience" and less known aspects of Obama are one of the reasons the media is a little more apt to ask certain questions.
(But it is pretty funny how much trouble they're having believing a black man could win the presidency.)
By
mikevotes, at 12:46 PM
McCain's 'experience' is quite over-rated. The President is more like a CEO than the military commander the Republicans make the office out to be.
His age aside, how many major corporations would jump at the chance to hire a CEO that was computer illiterate and graduated fifth from the bottom of his class (about 40 years ago) and has failed to undertake any education since then?
But the bottom line is that all of McCain's 'experience' seems only to lead him to conclude that Bush was right about everything.
By
Todd Dugdale , at 5:41 PM
That's a really good point.
I wouldn't hire that guy.
By
mikevotes, at 6:57 PM
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