Obama "banks" up to 36 superdelegates

Marc Ambinder cites an Obama campaign source saying that they have begun to "bank" dozens of superdelegates for an announcement June 4 or 5 to put them over the top. (Pretty much a head count for after the last primary.)

And, Axelrod publicly hints at the story saying, "When the primaries end, I think, we'll be where we need to be. ... We'll be at the number we need to claim the nomination."

(Treat the first one more skeptically, but as for Axelrod's comments, the Obama campaign's public statements and estimates of delegates, pledged, super, predictions, etc, have generally been very accurate.)

The next major event is Saturday's Rules and Bylaws Committee meeting which will be deciding the Fla./Mich. issues. (I find it impossible to believe this meeting will begin without some sense of the likely outcome, so look for leaks later this week.)

The difference between "undecided" and "undeclared" and why many superdelegates must be growing to hate Hillary Clinton.

At this point in the process, I find it nearly impossible to believe there are that many "undecided" superdelegates left. For the most part, what we have left are superdelegates who have decided between Obama and Clinton, but, for political reasons of their own, have chosen not to publicly declare their intent.

Many of those who have not declared, have not done so because they face a tight reelection or fundraising fight, or, in the case of some of the national or state party figures, see a potential complication of their position or effectiveness were they to pick a side.

The bottom line is that there are many superdelegates who don't want to publicly pick a side in this heated contest even though their minds are already made up. They are just hoping this conflict will go away without them having to pay any cost.

But what's really weird, if you think about it, is that both campaigns have been courting these supers, talking to them in various forms and various voices for at least three months. These campaigns with their superdelegate shops and counters must must have a very good sense within five or ten what the final superdelegate count and distribution will likely be.

So, barring something incredible forcing a surge one way or the other, both campaigns know, they already know, how the final numbers will look, and yet it still goes on.

This is the vacuum in which the Hillary Clinton campaign survives for now. They know that many of these remaining superdelegates will not come forward until forced and are claiming this reticence as indecision, a space in which to continue their campaign, a campaign they almost certainly know they have already lost.

Her campaign subsists on these superdelegates' fears of endangering their own political futures.

So, how do you think those undeclared superdelegates feel about all this? Their hope is to get through all this mess without publicly declaring, to come out the other side without angering anyone, and yet the Clinton campaign goes on, likely forcing them into that public declaration that they have been so long avoiding. This could cost them their seat, job, or office.

How do you think they will feel about Hillary Clinton if she makes them pay that cost?

There are still some 165 elected and DNC superdelegates undeclared.

Picture of the Day

Helloooo, Puerto Rico!!!


(Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton waves as she arrives at the airport to campaign in Aguadilla, Puerto Rico Saturday, May 24, 2008.(AP Photo/Elise Amendola))

The McCain strategy to win the Iraq debate

The McCain camp is swinging big, attacking Obama for not visiting Iraq recently. You figure Obama will very likely take a trip to Iraq after the primary is over, so I would guess this memorable attack is an effort by the McCain camp to diminish that trip as political.

"He really has no experience or knowledge or judgment about the issue of Iraq and he has wanted to surrender for a long time," the Arizona senator added. "If there was any other issue before the American people, and you hadn't had anything to do with it in a couple of years, I think the American people would judge that very harshly."....

Over the weekend, Sen. Lindsey Graham, one of McCain's top surrogates, laid the groundwork for McCain's criticism in a television interview in which he noted Obama's absence from Iraq and floated the idea that Obama and McCain should go together to be briefed by Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, and Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.

Their goal seems to be to paint Obama's Iraq position as political expedience rather than the "toughness" and (unpopular) "judgment" of McCain. That's the ground where they want to fight over Iraq. Not right or wrong, but "moral" and "crass political."

They're trying to turn the Iraq debate from a policy issue into a character issue.

Later: (NYTimes) "Senator John McCain stood before hundreds of flag-waving veterans and their families on Monday and vowed not to waver in his support of the Iraq war. “Even,” he said, “if I must stand athwart popular opinion.”.....

Also: McCain goes hardline on N. Korea, blasting the Bush administration for being too soft.

Always bugs me.

As Bush travels to hold three GOP fundraisers, we pay.

In a time-honored practice by presidents on the trail, Bush has scheduled non-campaign events on his three-day, five-state trip, which helps defray the enormous costs of hosting the presidential entourage for which candidates must pay.....

Bush will help raise money in two key swing congressional districts on the trip: New Mexico's open first congressional district and Kansas' third district, where Republicans are trying again to knock out Democratic Rep. Dennis Moore.

Any way to know how much we're paying to help the GOP raise money for McCain and two Congressional candidates?

Picture of the Day - Photo op accomplished

On this Memorial Day morning, news organizations are not headlining with the traditional Memorial Day photos of remembrance of those who died in service to our country. Instead, they are headlining with this photo of Bush participating with the veterans group Rolling Thunder.

Photo op accomplished.

(REUTERS/Joshua Roberts)

The hard landing

The NYTimes has an article looking at the environment of a Hillary Clinton return to the Senate.

She'll return as a profile major player, if for no other reason than she now has a giant 50 state fundraising list,

But talk outside the Senate of Mrs. Clinton becoming majority leader is considered truly fanciful within the Senate, where it has also provoked unspoken irritation at the image of Democrats waiting for Mrs. Clinton to swoop in off the campaign to guide her waiting colleagues.

Also, in a WaPo piece on Clinton's quest for a popular vote "win,"

A decision about the fate of delegates from Michigan and Florida could come Saturday, when the Democratic National Committee's Rules and Bylaws Committee is scheduled to meet. If either side is dissatisfied with the outcome, the matter will move on to another subcommittee and could take until the end of June to resolve.

That next pertinent subcommittee meeting would be the Credentials Committee on June 29, although I doubt superdelegates, party members, etc would extend that level of patience.

The mumblings from the party folks, even those sympathetic towards Clinton, seem to be pointing to "some kind of sanction" against Fla and Michigan.

Obama +6 superdelegates, Clinton +1

As predicted by CQ almost two months ago, the add-on delegates are breaking to Obama. (The "available" superdelegates number still includes a good number of "add ons" which are not independent agents waiting to make up their minds, but chosen locally for a candidate by the state parties/conventions.)

Yesterday, Obama gets 3 add on superdelegates to Clinton's 1, and today Obama gets 3 more out of Hawaii.

(And, Don't look now, but Obama's up by 190 delegates.)

"If you just let me go to Pyongyang, I'll get you a deal..."

An interesting puff profile of Assistant Secretary of State Christopher R. Hill, and his battles, more inside Washington than Pyongyang, to get the nuclear deal with North Korea.

(No, it's not the best deal, but considering the efforts to undermine him at home, it's definitely an achievement.)

This is where the Clinton's are....

After saying that a Montana result might win Clinton the race (said in Montana,) Bill Clinton went on to say this,

"She can still be nominated. Don't let anybody kid you," Clinton said as the crowd of several hundred cheered. "All these superdelegates that have said they're for this one or that one or the other, they can all flip. So you do matter."

Seriously, Montana is gonna make 100 superdelegates flip?

Also: Hillary Clinton submits an editorial explaining the assassination comment and why she continues to run, "I am running because I still believe I can win on the merits."

But here's the weird thing. This editorial, which you would think would be a big deal, gets placed in the NYDailyNews, not the NYTimes, WaPo, etc. Curious, eh?

Picture of the Day

I'm out for a good part of the day (beach), so I thought I'd leave you with this for contemplation.

(Supporters of U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Senator Barack Obama wait before a town hall meeting at the B'Nai Tora Congregation in Boca Raton, Florida, May 22, 2008. (REUTERS/Carlos Barria))

He's not as nice as he looks.....

Obama lets Clinton off the hook for the RFK comment, only after letting her twist for a full day and after assuring it will be fodder on the Sunday morning talk shows.

McCain's problems

The NYTimes has a story out on the GOP establishment's worries about chaos in the McCain campaign.

Think about where McCain is. He's someone who had always assumed he would run as a reformer/outsider, as an agent of "change," who now finds himself facing Obama, saddled with lobbyist problems and the most unpopular president in modern history.

His plan was to run from the right into the middle, but no matter how hard he tries, he will have to constantly throw breadcrumbs to the right on religious/social issues, immigration, taxes, etc. He will always be harnessed with the need to feed his right wing.

His fundraising gaps may be managed by big donors pouring money into the RNC and 527's, but I still am not seeing any real grass roots push, any group that is wedded to the dream of a McCain presidency. Without that, where does he get volunteers?

Last, this is not a man who has been tremendously successful headlining big campaigns. He was kneecapped and collapsed in 2000. In 2007, he created a campaign structure that collapsed under its own weight, and now he's trying this very dubious model of ten autonomous regional directors with local control of money, advertising, organization, and to some degree, message.

And all of this doesn't even mention the underlying "passion gap" of the political landscape this year which will likely drive Dems to the polls at much higher rates.

There're a bunch of challenges facing McCain. I just think that needs to be out there.

Picture of the Day - 2

John McCain, seen here on May 22, 2008. (Getty/Justin Sullivan)

The Pakistanis offer to turn over the "US's terrorists" to Iran

Jundullah is a terror group against Iran, with admitted US ties, and the new Pakistani government appears to be serving up several members to Iran which may soon have a much better grasp of what has been going on along their southeastern border.

In another sign of growing tensions with the United States, Pakistan is threatening to turn over to Iran six members of a tribal militant group Iran claims are "spies" for the CIA......

The CIA has denied any direct ties with the group, but U.S. officials tell ABC News U.S. intelligence officers frequently meet and advise Jundullah leaders, and current and former intelligence officers are working to prevent the men from being sent to Iran.

The six Jundullah members were taken into custody by Pakistani authorities last week, and the Iranian Mehr News Agency reported Pakistan would soon extradite the men to Iran, where they would likely be put on trial as spies and face execution.

And, the new Pakistani government is pushing ahead with its tribal area peace deals over the US's strenuous objections.

Pakistan is quickly swinging away from the US.

Forcing the fat kids to fight

I think it says alot that the US and Iran are both unhappy that Israel and Syria have entered into potential peace negotiations.

How dare they make peace......

Picture of the Day

This is the official photo of regret......

















But here are a few more of Clinton entering the event.

The Clinton plan to win

Yes, this is the NYPost, but did Hillary Clinton really say she's staying in because....

"We all remember Bobby Kennedy was assassinated in June in California. I don't understand it...."

With all the history and all the crazies, is this really a proper thing to say?

Later: Yup, she really said it. (video)

Later still: She apologizes (to the Kennedy's and "the nation," not to Obama.)

Bottom line: She said she's staying in the race, among other reasons, just in case some crazy assassinates Obama.

Did you hear that crazies? Hillary Clinton just (unintentionally) told you how to help her win.

I'm sure she would know who you were then......

This is just unbelievable.

Question on tactics of Clinton as VP

If the Obama camp doesn't want Clinton as VP, why not ask her to begin the vetting process? In that scenario, the Obama campaign has alot of power.

Does Bill Clinton really want to release all his personal financial info? What about the donors to his foundation? Couldn't the Obama camp very reasonably make "transparency" a condition of her VP candidacy?

They could just hint around at this and turn the whole thing back on her.

Picture of the Day

(President Bush kisses Erika Wyckoff, who's husband Sgt. Charles Wyckoff, died in the line of duty in Iraq, and was honored, Thursday, May 22, 2008, during the 82nd Airborne Division Review at Fort Bragg, N.C.(AP Photo/Gerry Broome))

Sistani sanctions attacks on US troops

There has been another shift in Iraqi politics,

Iraq's most influential Shiite cleric has been quietly issuing religious edicts declaring that armed resistance against U.S.-led foreign troops is permissible — a potentially significant shift by a key supporter of the Washington-backed government in Baghdad.

Maliki and Sistani met Thursday.

There's a fair argument that this is just part of the broader intraShia politics. Sistani affirmed Maliki and "adherence" to the law, and then issued these edicts which will cut into Sadr's support, but still, when Sistani does this it has impact.

Juan Cole has a looong post on Sistani and his motivations.

(Later: Todd notes in the comments that I'm painting this too simplistically and too black and white. He's right. It's more about Sistani positioning himself relative to the broad Shia politics and against the US occupation than about Maliki/Sadr.)

Clinton as VP

We have a second report (NYTimes) that Bill Clinton is the one strongly pressing for Hillary Clinton as VP. (That doesn't necessarily mean Hillary Clinton doesn't agree, just that Bill Clinton is the one pushing.)

CNN's Suzanne Malveaux says the Clinton campaign has "reached out" to the Obama campaign and lays out the options the Clinton camp are pushing. (Be aware that this sounds like it is all sourced from the Clinton campaign. This is what they want out in public.)

To me, alot of this seems like the Clinton campaign trying to reverse the withdrawal pressure and lay it all at the feet of the Obama campaign.

And I do think Obama's public beginning of his VP search is intended to put an end to the Clinton as VP talk.

Later: It appears the Clinton camp has decided to push hard for the VP invitation. (Also note that once again a Clinton fundraiser is threatening withholding money.)

(Also, New York Gov. David Paterson, a strong Clinton supporter, calls Clinton "desperate" and runs down her Fla and Mich claims.)

Taking the Christians for granted

Two stories/thoughts today. 1) John McCain threw overboard not only John Hagee but also televangelist Rod Parsley for their controversial comments.

2) In the highly publicized McCain meetings with possible VP candidates this weekend, McCain's apparent shortlist contains none of the Christian Right's preferred. (Romney (Mormon,) Jindal (Indian/Catholic,) and Crist (rumored "not that there's anything wrong with that."))

I definitely think the Christian Right votes for McCain, but he seems to be giving them very little affirmative reason to be passionate about his campaign, and without the fundies, who are the volunteers and groundstaff for the fall?

How different it could have been....

If only the Clinton's had listened to the outsiders a little more..

When Clinton was assembling her campaign team in late 2006, strategist Joe Trippi sat down with Clinton advisers for a job interview. Trippi, who would later run John Edwards' campaign, suggested that Clinton center her campaign on a Web-based effort to collect $100 each from 1 million women around the country. Clinton's staff rejected the plan, opting to mix some online solicitations with a more traditional pitch to big donors.

I think that woulda worked.

They're trying it now, but it's just too late.

Picture of the Day

I don't agree with the overall analysis, but I think this is right on.

Each of these complaints (from the Clinton campaign) springs from a common premise - Hillary could not have lost a fair fight for the nomination.

But she did.....

(Bill Clinton holds one-year-old Shaelyn Tolleson-Knee after speaking in Missoula, Mont., Wednesday May 14, 2008. (AP Photo/James Snook))

Hiding the old?

This does smell like they're trying to hide something,

Senator John McCain is set to release 400 pages of medical records, including documents related to his melanoma surgery in August 2000, to a tightly controlled group of reporters on the Friday before Memorial Day weekend.....

On Friday, the campaign will allow a small pool of reporters access to the records from 7 a.m. to 10 a.m. Pacific time in a conference room at the Copper Wind Resort in Phoenix, near the Mayo Clinic Scottsdale. The reporters will be allowed to take notes but not remove or photocopy the records.

So, just a few reporters, just a few hours, no medical expertise in the room, done the Friday before Memorial Day weekend. Hmmm...

Dangerously irrelevant

To some degree this was inevitable. If you hew to an ideological rather than realist foreign policy, there will always be an inertial drag back towards realism as the players manage their own interests.

When your administration is weakened and discredited, they're going to stop listening to you, and you lose control of how things shape out.

Just days after President Bush returned from the Middle East, the Middle East is moving beyond the Bush administration.

Two major peace efforts -- a surprise announcement of indirect talks between Israel and Syria brokered by Turkey and an eleventh-hour deal to prevent a new Lebanese war brokered by Qatar -- were launched without an American role, and both counter U.S. strategy in the region....

The United States is not playing a role in other critical Middle East initiatives, Ottaway noted, including an Egyptian effort to reconcile the two major Palestinian parties, Fatah and Hamas, and negotiations between Iran and the Gulf Cooperation Council sheikdoms. The Bush administration is absent "across the board," she said.

And, further east......

Pakistan's new government has signed a peace deal with Islamic militants in a valley of northwestern Pakistan, in a process that Western officials worry could take the pressure off Taliban and al Qaeda hardliners.

Indeed, part of it is lame duck, but, I would argue that an equal part is all the political capital and goodwill wasted on ideological fantasy policies and the perception of a US weakened by overextension in Iraq and an overextended economy.

The provinces are defying the weakened empire.

Panic?

(AP) Oil jumped above $135 briefly. (WaPo) Up "18 percent so far this month and more than one-third so far this year...."

(WSJ) "The world's premier energy monitor is preparing a sharp downward revision of its oil-supply forecast, a shift that reflects deepening pessimism over whether oil companies can keep abreast of booming demand."

(Reuters) "Record high oil prices at $135 a barrel deepened worries about inflation on Thursday...."

Funny, funny, funny..... tragic

Check out this 2000 election gem,

Gov. George W. Bush of Texas said today that if he was president, he would bring down gasoline prices through sheer force of personality, by creating enough political good will with oil-producing nations that they would increase their supply of crude......

.

On Clinton as Obama's VP

As disciplined as the Obama campaign has been, when a senior adviser talks to the Politico's Roger Simon anonymously about "his personal views and not the official view of the campaign" as to why Hillary Clinton would not make a good VP choice, you really have to assume it's campaign authorized in some form.

And, according to Tumulty,

Her husband, for one, seems to have a pretty clear idea what he thinks she should get as a consolation prize. In Bill Clinton's view, she has earned nothing short of an offer to be Obama's running mate, according to some who are close to the former President. Bill "is pushing real hard for this to happen," says a friend.

The general consensus from both campaigns still seems to be that there will not be a Clinton VP.

Later: The Obama camp lets it be known that they're beginning a VP search, implying it's not Clinton.

Poisoning the Florida well

Alot has been said recently about how Hillary Clinton's tone has changed recently to stop attacking Obama, but isn't this latest Michigan/Florida push damaging as well.

I understand she's trying to keep the balls in the air, but by shouting disenfranchisement in the way that she is, and pointing a finger directly at Obama and the Democratic party, isn't she just inflaming Floridians against her party and the nominee? By her own campaign's assertion, these two states are critical in the fall, so aren't her actions damaging Democratic chances?

Picture of the Day - 2

(Republican presidential candidate, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., gives a thumbs up as he drinks a coffee at Cafe Versailles on Tuesday, May 20, 2008, in Miami. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu))

Political bits

(HuffPo) Another ugly Hagee quote comes around saying that Hitler was just doing god's will to help form the state of Israel.

(AP) Clinton threatens to go to the convention over Fla and Mich.

(Politico) Axelrod talks about conceding ground to get a deal.

(Does anyone really think that Clinton is going to get all the delegates out of Fla and Mich? I think all of this is negotiating. My hunch is there will be a deal before the meeting.)

(FirstRead) Last night, Chuck Todd was talking about a nascent deal for the states to have half the delegate votes.

And, (NYTimes) John McCain is hosting an informal weekend at his home for several of his likely VP choices. Crist, Jindal, Romney. (Maybe he should do it like The Bachelor?)

McCain campaign bribing commenters

They really don't get it, do they? By offering prizes and gifts for planting pro-McCain comments on big blogs, the McCain campaign has just undermined any and every legitimate McCain commenter out there, turning anything pro-McCain into the equivalent of spam.

Pay Attention

The oil mess may be about to get a whole lot worse.

Neil McMahon, of Sanford Bernstein, said: “Peak oil views – regardless of whether right or wrong – are seeping into the market and supporting high prices.”....

That trend was exacerbated by T. Boone Pickens, the influential investor who believes world oil production is about to peak as aging fields run dry. He warned that oil prices would hit $150 a barrel by the end of the year.

Personally, I'm a believer in peak oil, although I don't have any way to know if we're there right now. This may just be traders pushing the theory for their own gain, but it makes me nervous.

Picture of the Day

(Hillary Clinton gets a kiss from her campaign manager Terry McAuliffe at an election night rally May 20 in Louisville, Kentucky. (AFP/Getty Images/Scott Olson))

Not election related, but five interesting reads....

(NYTimes) "In 2002, as evidence of prisoner mistreatment at Guantánamo Bay began to mount, Federal Bureau of Investigation agents at the base created a “war crimes file” to document accusations against American military personnel, but were eventually ordered to close down the file, a Justice Department report revealed Tuesday...."

(CNN) Gates: U.S. 'stuck' in Guantanamo: "The brutally frank answer is that we're stuck, and we're stuck in several ways...."

(Radar) "There exists a database of Americans, who, often for the slightest and most trivial reason, are considered unfriendly, and who, in a time of panic, might be incarcerated. The database can identify and locate perceived 'enemies of the state' almost instantaneously." He and other sources tell Radar that the database is sometimes referred to by the code name Main Core. One knowledgeable source claims that 8 million Americans are now listed in Main Core as potentially suspect. ...."

(NYTimes) "The military’s elite Special Operations Command has quietly stepped back from a controversial plan that gave it the authority to carry out secret counterterrorism missions on its own around the world."

And, after all the Bush/McCain, Obama, talking to Iran flap, Robert Gates slowly begins to walk his comments back.

Quote

Roger Simon in a piece on the state of Clinton's race.

When you are in a place where your victories don’t matter, then you are in a very bad place.

.

Backtracking a little.....

Okay, now that is sexist.

Stray thought

I find it interesting that on election nights the Obama camp sends out surrogates to the cable networks (Dodd, McCaskill, etc,) while the Clinton camp sends out campaign staff (McAuliffe, Wolfson.)

On the one hand, you're trusting your message to surrogates, but on the other hand, nobody in the campaign has to go on the record on difficult questions in the heat of the battle.

Burning Joe Lieberman at the stake.

No, I'm not calling for violence against Joe Lieberman, but after you read his oped in the WSJ today, you may be.

Some figures out of the fundraising reports

Per the AP, April was Obama's worst fundraising month of the year at $31 million. Clinton has only had one month over $30 million, and I don't think John McCain has broken $20 million yet.

In April, Obama $31 million, Clinton $21 million, McCain $18 million (all McCain gets in a first month as the presumptive nominee?)

Per the LATimesblog, "Clinton's campaign debt has now soared to nearly $31 million, according to numbers crunched early this morning by The Times' campaign finance guru, Dan Morain....."

Also, The Clinton camp claimed to raise $10 million in the 24 hours after Pennsylvania which means they only raised $11 million for the entire rest of the month.