If Russia and China are the main obstruction to further UN sanctions against Iran, how would they feel about an attack on Iran?
At first blush, you'd think they'd be against it, but walk through the post bombing scenario from their side.
With sanctions in place from everyone else, the Russians and Chinese get the reconstruction contracts. The Russians get the critical military reconstruction which would likely keep several of their manufacturers above water, while the Chinese get increased access to Iranian oil.
Although many of the Sunni governments will silently support the US action, the broader centerpoint of world opinion will likely move against the US, and with the likely Iranian reaction, the US's crusade/overstretch into the region is likely to be exacerbated.
Yes, the US is doing the work for the Saudi and Sunni governments, but after another US attack on a Muslim country, how much support could they offer?
I could be wrong, just thinking out loud, but it seems to me that beyond the short term disruptions, Russia and China win the "bomb Iran" scenario.
(You could certainly argue that the US loses in a "nuclear Iran" scenario, too, but let's remember that the Russians are the ones who offered cover as Iran started on the nuclear road.
, what's the US deal with the Saudis on nukes? You know the Saudis and Egyptians will not accept Iran having nukes while they don't, so, what's the back room deal? Protection under the US umbrella, or an offer to flood nuke technology later if they hold off now? Do you give it at all?