Kerbala today

5 US soldiers died in one event in Kerbala today, 3 wounded. After reading all the articles, what happened isn't completely clear.

From what I can gather, there was a meeting in a provincial governor's office involving local authorities, US and Iraqi forces to coordinate security for an upcoming Shia pilgrimmage. This gathering was attacked from several sides by 20-30 heavily armed militiamen supported by indirect fire.

(NYTimes) "Iraqi state television reported that at least two dozen gunmen assaulted the building, getting inside, and drawing a response from American troops who were dropped by helicopter onto the roof."

(Just to complicate it all, (AP) "Earlier Saturday, Karbala governor Akeel al-Khazaali had said the U.S. troops raided the provincial headquarters looking for wanted men but left with no prisoners, apparently unable to find their target.")

This is very hot close combat that we don't usally see anywhere outside Anbar, and almost never from Shia forces against the US. (Did they know they were attacking US personnel in the building?)

UPDATE, Sunday AM: This story is getting weirder and weirder.

The gunmen who killed five U.S. troops in the Shiite holy city of Karbala wore military uniforms and used vehicles commonly driven by foreign dignitaries — an apparent attempt to impersonate Americans, Iraqi officials said Sunday.....

In Karbala, provincial Gov. Akeel al-Khazaali, who was not at the security meeting....

"The group used percussion bombs and broke into the building, killed five Americans and kidnapped two others, then fled," the governor said, adding that Iraqi troops later found one of the SUVs with three bodies dressed in military uniforms......

There's just something about this that seems important.

Picture of the Day - 2

Maj. Gen. Ronald Johnson, left, presents Judith Bubeck with the flag from the casket of her son, Sgt. John T. Bubeck, of Collegeville, Pa., during funeral services at Arlington National Cemetery in Arlington, Va. Tuesday, Jan. 9, 2007. Bubeck died of wounds suffered when an improvised explosive device detonated near his vehicle during combat operations Dec. 25 in Baghdad, Iraq. (AP Photo/Kevin Wolf)

Pakistan, "our ally"

The NYTimes has this large piece collecting anecdotal accounts that the Pakistanis and the ISI are still protecting and supporting the Taleban.

As awful as failure in Iraq would be, the failure of Musharraf in Pakistan would be 10 times worse.

SUNDAY AM: Pakistan vigorously denies the charge.

Iraq

(AP) A US helicopter went down in Diyala killing all 13 on board. "The brief U.S. statement lacked the customary comment that the aircraft was not shot down, indicating it may have come under fire by insurgents."

(McClatchy) Kurdish Iraqi soldiers are deserting to avoid the conflict in Baghdad.

(Newsweek) Bush's surge is opposed by 68%. (Approval 31.)

(NYTimes) Another report that the Iraqi oil law is closer. (I'll believe it when I see it.)

(LATimes) In this article on the coming Iraqi battle over their national budget, there's this little fact. Iraq is budgeting approximately $6.6 billion of Defense and Interior all next year. (The US is spending $8.4 billion a month.)

(On Sunday night, National Geographic Channel is running a special on contractors in Iraq.)

Brownback blows it on the first day

Dear Mr. Brownback, How can I take you seriously when your statement declaring your presidential bid contains this, "My family and I are taking the first steps on the yellow brick road to the White House?"

So, is he looking for a brain or a heart?

(I really want him around for the early debates.)

Picture of the Day

Iraq, after a carbombing.

Perhaps most tellingly about the situation there, I can't remember which one.

Silly little things around the internets

8 bullet points outlining "The Powell Doctrine." (per wikipedia.) (Also interesting, the Weinberger Doctrine.)

(WaPo) Bush has now spent 365 days at Camp David. (405 in Crawford.)

And, (Time) Air Force One is incapapable of mid air refuelling? (Sure hope that nuclear war ends in 8 hours.....)

Question

Reading this article about the sinking dollar not affecting the trade deficit, a question popped into my mind.

If the goal is, in fact, to reduce the trade deficit, wouldn't the anti-terror recommendation to screen every cargo container help accomplish that goal?

I recognize that's not the best way to do it, but wouldn't it act as a de facto tariff while, you know, making us safer?

China filling the gaps

It's not as simple as all this, but the fact that this can even be discussed shows just how much US influence has fallen.

With lengthy white papers, energetic diplomacy and generous aid policies, Chinese officials have taken pains in recent years to present their country as a new kind of global power that, unlike the United States, has only good will toward other nations.

In reality, the Chinese "goodwill" is largely a hands off policy so long as nations cooperate with them economically. In some cases this is fairly benign, Saudi, Venezuela, etc, but let's remember that this "goodwill toward other nations" also includes support for the governments of Sudan and Myanmar.

Picture of the Day - 3

Carol Haag, of Princeton, stands grim-faced as she strikes a brass bowl in front of the Statehouse in Trenton, N.J., Wednesday, Jan. 3, 2007, to accent the reading of the names of the 52 members of the military from New Jersey who have died in Iraq since the war began 46 months ago. (AP Photo/Mel Evans)

Another attack in Pakistan carried out by the US

The pattern is bcoming strikingly familiar. A strike on a target in Pakistan. Claims it was carried out by the Pakistanis and that it killed a key Al Qaeda target. Then, slowly, the story backs down.

The US conducted the latest strike in Pakistan, not the Pakistanis as was claimed.

How long can Musharraf maintain control with the US bombing his country?

Quickhits

(USNews) Jenna Bush looking for a book deal. (I was just too overwhelmed with possibilities. Insert your own snark here.)

(LATimes) The Pentagon "red teams" Bush's Iraq plan. (I would love to see that report.)

(Time) The 500th Iraq amputee hits US shores.

(AP) General Casey predicts "surge" troops could come home by Summer. (Not so bold. The way the rotation is set up, they will likely have to come home by summer.)

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Rice Pays Lip Service to Middle East Peace

I'm not at all a fan of Donald Trump, but his recent criticism of Condi Rice, that she travels from place to place waving but not accomplishing anything really is pretty apt.

Read this AP article and tell me she's not just showing up for the appearance.

Springing up like mushroom (clouds)

The Jordanian King (who must be democratically elected because the Bush administration supports him) talked to Haaretz.

"But, the rules have changed on the nuclear subject throughout the whole region. Where I think Jordan was saying, 'we'd like to have a nuclear-free zone in the area,' after this summer, everybody's going for nuclear programs.

"The Egyptians are looking for a nuclear program. The GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council] are looking at one, and we are actually looking at nuclear power for peaceful and energy purposes. We've been discussing it with the West. "

Picture of the Day

Does anyone else appreciate the grim irony of the White House Correspondents' Association telling Rich Little not to make fun of Bush or Iraq.

Wasn't this little "Nope no WMD under there" joke at the correspondents' dinner?

"They don't want anyone knocking the president. He's really over the coals right now, and he's worried about his legacy," added Little, a longtime Las Vegas resident."

What Carl Levin was doing today

During the Gonzales hearing today, Carl Levin made a very big point to establish that the Bush administration was not abandoning its claim of executive power that enabled them (they claim) to enact the illegal wiretapping around the FISA court.

His contention, affirmed by Gonzales, was that if they maintained the claim to that power, then, despite their current return to the FISA court, they could, at any time, abandon the process and return the program to its previous status.

Why this is important is outlined in this fascinating NYTimes analysis piece. If the remedy is already enacted, then any case before the courts is automatically moot. However, if the administration's position is that that executive power still exists and could be reimplemented, all of the existing court cases are still relevant and will proceed.

Without Levin, that claim to power might not have ever been made so explicitly. Freakin' brilliant.

Picture of the Day - 3

A woman wounded in a mortar attack stands outside her damaged house in Baghdad January 14, 2007. One civilian was killed while six others were wounded in the attack, police said.

(REUTERS/Mohammed Ameen)

The AP greets the Mahdi arrests with the proper skepticism

I'm still going with "a tactical and propaganda feint" until we see more follow through.

Mahdi Army fighters said Thursday they were under siege in their Sadr City stronghold as U.S. and Iraqi troops killed or seized key commanders in pinpoint nighttime raids. Two commanders of the Shiite militia said Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has stopped protecting the group under pressure from Washington and threats from Sunni Muslim Arab governments.

The two commanders' account of a growing siege mentality inside the organization could represent a tactical and propaganda feint, but there was mounting evidence the militia was increasingly off balance and had ordered its gunmen to melt back into the population....

The militiamen said al-Sadr himself had apparently gotten wind of the coming assault and ordered a reshuffling of the Mahdi Army command structure, transferring many leaders to new districts and firing others who were of suspect loyalty.

I do find it suspect that it's Mahdi commanders telling us how tough Maliki has become. That's awfully politically convenient for Maliki right now.

(Again, I think these arrests may be the drug baron and the dirty cop. Sadr has to give up a certain number of arrests to Maliki for politics, so he's using the opportunity to clean house.)

FRI AM: The big headline is that the Iraqis arrested a Sadr aide, but there seems to be alot of conflicting reports thus far, some saying it was US, some saying it was Iraqi forces. The BBC tells the Sadr line that he was the Baghdad media director.

We'll have to wait and see.

Dissenters against the Iran line

This article doesn't make clear the depth, breadth, or motivation of the skepticism over the level of Iranian involvement in Iraq, but it's quite interesting that it's there.

Yet some sources indicate that elements inside the U.S. government -- in the U.S. intelligence community, in particular -- are trying to head off a possible administration move to escalate the confrontation with Iran over its suspected actions in Iraq. Some officials reportedly have doubts about the precise nature of the evidence indicating Iranian involvement in Iraq. ...

Contrary to some initial reports that American troops had found damning maps and documents on the detained Iranians, some U.S. government sources indicate that the Hakim raid did not produce definitive proof of Iranian involvement in supplying Iraqi militants. "They are trying to walk this back," one U.S. official said. "There are no smoking guns about Iran in Iraq," said another knowledgeable U.S. source. "That's the problem. Sort of like the WMD."

(The article broadly points to the idea that Iranian interference in Iraq is now being emphasized because rgional powers weren't acting on the adminitration's emphasis of a nuclear threat.)

The Power of Majority

I'm not altogether convinced that the Democratic investigations will ever directly lead to much. However, the power to hold hearings is a major tool to drive the news cycle.

If the Dems hold a hearing, the news services all send people, and those young reporters are then obligated to write stories.

All eyes were on the Gonzales hearing today, but I think this is a better example: Retired Generals Criticize Bush’s Plan for Iraq.

Odds on, these generals have harbored misgivings for awhile, but this story would never have been written without the hearing.

Related: Waxman is calling Bremer before a House hearing on Feb. 6. How will he defend himself without throwing the Bush administration under the bus a la Michael Brown?

Picture of the Day - 2

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice reacts as she arrives at the military part of Tegel airport in Berlin on Wednesday, Jan. 17, 2007. (AP Photo/Markus Schreiber)

(This is a real, undoctored photo. I don't know what she's "reacting" to. Maybe it's Maliki's statement that she's "boosting the terrorists.")

Iraq

(NYTimes) The Maliki government claims to have arrested 420 Mahdi militiamen. (Mahdi denies this. These may be renegades or disloyals that Sadr is giving up.)

(AP) The Iranian ambassador says he has been assured by the Iraqis that the 5 Iranians captured in Irbil will soon be released.

(AP) Iraqi state TV says that 100 (Sunni) insurgents were killed in NE Baghdad. (Same article, a raid three days ago netted 1,959 Katyusha rockets?)

(Rawstory) US forces raid a Kurdish refugee camp. (Looking for PKK? Iranian support?)

(Reuters) Sudan claims 9 US soldiers "raided" its embassy in Baghdad.

US spurned Iranian deal in 2003.

Not too surprising, but still.....

Iran offered the US a package of concessions in 2003, but it was rejected, a senior former US official has told the BBC's Newsnight programme. .... Vice-President Dick Cheney's office rejected the plan, the official said.

Probably Larry Wilkerson, but when in 2003?

Maliki says Bush language emboldening the terrorists

This is too damn funny. Maliki says Condi Rice's lack of faith emboldens the terrorists!!!!

In a sign of the tense relations with Washington, he (Maliki) chided the US for suggesting his Government was living on “borrowed time”. Such criticism boosted Iraq’s extremists, he said,...

“I wish that we could receive strong messages of support from the US so we don’t give some boost to the terrorists and make them feel that they might have achieved success. I believe that such statements give moral boosts to the terrorists and push them towards making an extra effort and making them believe that they have defeated the American Administration, but I can tell you that they haven’t defeated the Iraqi Government.”

He's taking lessons from Tony Snow and Dick Cheney.

(This is just a clip from a much more significant article. Maliki, looking at the likelihood of a mid term US drawdown and ensuing open civil war, is trying to twist the US into uparming the Iraqi security forces (Shia) before they withdraw.

Maliki is trying to capitalize on US antiwar sentiment to get the Shia weapons.

I wonder if he is extorting against Bush's security plan.)

Picture of the Day

A resident looks at a crater on a road at the scene of a roadside bomb attack in Baghdad January 14, 2007. The attack in al-Tayaran square killed one civilian and wounded six others, police said. REUTERS/Thaier al-Sudani

Fishing in the small pool

From the Libby pretrial, (AP) "Cheney's credibility has emerged as a key issue, with defense lawyers looking for a panel that can trust the vice president."

I'm guessing they get paid by the hour.

Picture of the Day - 2

"So, those are the poll numbers, huh?"

(REUTERS/Jim Young)

True or not, Karzai plays dirty

I have no idea if this allegation here is true, that Mullah Omar is living in Quetta protected by the ISI, but within the context of the Karzai-Musharraf fight, this is big.

Take a look at how this came out: Muhammad Hanif was captured and interrogated by the Afghanis just yesterday. Then, today, "Afghanistan's intelligence agency distributed copies of the video CD to journalists on Wednesday."

That seems a bit unusual doesn't it?

A Must Read?

This isn't a must read, but it is interesting, Richard Engel passing on what one of his stringers out of Baquba said. Al Qaeda/Sunnis have taken over large parts of Baquba; it is far less safe than Baghdad.

But what grabbed me was the stringer talking about the Sunnis cutting off entire villages from food, power supplies, etc. I maintain that that is merely a smaller fractal of the broader Sunni effort to isolate at the capitol. If you'll notice, all of the towns where Sunnis are making territorial/control gains are located on the major access routes to Baghdad.

(Also: From the KR stringer blog: Very, very sad.)

Spinning a weak position into silk

The Bush administration announced today that it will begin running wiretaps through the FISA court. Hooray! That's all we ever wanted, but I'm fascinated by the political play here.

The administration is laying this out as if it is their idea, when in reality, it resulted because they're looking straight down the barrel of an investigation of this likely illegal program.

The letter from Mr. Gonzales came a day before he is to appear before the Senate Judiciary Committee, some of whose members have been hostile to the administration’s arguments in favor of the program.

(I can't wait for someone to dig out all the administration quotes from last year detailing how this was the wrong way to go.)

Picture of the Day

"I can see them taking off now, zoom, zoom... off to Iran, zoom, zoom, zoom,... carrying their tiny little nukes...."

(or) Cheney's new bathtub toy.

(U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney is pictured behind a scale model of the new U.S. Navy aircraft carrier at the naming ceremony of the USS Gerald R. Ford, January 16, 2007. REUTERS/Jason Reed)

Our Egyptian allies

Deep in a pretty interesting NYTimes article about the Sunni nations fuelling anti-Shiite sentiments,

An Egyptian-government controlled satellite service, called Nilesat, has been broadcasting across the Arab world Al Zawraa, a television station that shows what is billed as heroic footage of the Sunni insurgency in Iraq, American soldiers being killed and wounded, and unflattering images of Shiite leaders.

Our ally al-Hakim

(BBC) Powerful Shia/Sciri leader al Hakim is calling for the Iranians arrested in Irbil to be released.

The underplayed SOTU

I'm amazed at how little prepress we're seeing on the State of the Union speech coming in less than a week. You would think that the administration would be pushing it as a further platform for Bush's Iraq plan. (I'll be so curious to watch the Congressional reaction/applause lines.)

Last year, the speculation started in mid-December as the White House pressed it as a major agenda restart. (I don't know if anybody else remembers all the articles with that godawful "President clearing brush"/New Agenda metaphor.)

This year, not a peep with the first real press mention being that Jim Webb will give the rebuttal. (By the way, good casting by the Dems.)

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President Bush embraces Marine Lance Cpl. Chad Watson of Mt. Zion, Ill., who lost his lower right leg in Iraq , during a ceremony honoring the 2006 World Series Champions St. Louis Cardinals. (AP Photo/Charles Dharapak)

Intriguing Quickhits - Saudis mulling sending troops into Iraq.

(WSJ-WashWire) The Saudi Foreign Minister "went on to deliver a less than ringing endorsement of the new Bush Iraq plan, saying he agreed with its “objectives”—a cohesive and peaceful Iraq—but could not necessarily support “the means.”

(MSNBC) "Saudi Arabia believes the Iraqi government is not up to the challenge and has told the United States that it is prepared to move its own forces into Iraq should the violence there degenerate into chaos, a senior U.S. official told NBC News on Tuesday."

Laura Rozen hypothesizes about the reported "non-official" Israel-Syria discussions and why they broke down.

Josh Marshall discusses the recent replacement of a number of US Attorneys. (Most interesting is the dangling question, "Now, why would Karl Rove want his top opposition researcher being the US Attorney in Arkansas for the next two years?")

(AP) Now, they're talking about extending deployments in Afghanistan.

Last, (Iraqslogger) Remember the Chicago based ex-Iraqi minister who was busted out of an Iraqi prison by US contractors, flown to Jordan by Secret Service officials on a US plane, and is still under suspicion regarding $2 billion of misappropriation. Well, he's now back in Chicago, safe and Chalabi-like.

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(AP Photo/Karim Kadim)

The balance of power in Iraq and the bombings today

There were several bombings across Baghdad today, the largest being a carbomb outside a university that killed 65.

The reason I'm posting is that I take issue with the characterization I'm seeing in the alot of the press.

"in what appeared to be a final spasm of violence ahead of an imminent security operation by the Iraqi government and U.S. forces to secure the capital."

(Updated link.)

I don't think that's it at all.

I would guess that these attacks are related to the latest "crackdown," but not as a last effort to "get in some violence" before the US gets in place. That assumes a mindlessness to the attacks when all past evidence is that the Sunnis are using these attacks for specific tactical ends.

The Maliki government is trying to construct this new security operation in such a way as to leave the Mahdi Army intact while degrading his/their Sunni factional opponents. In the interim, Sadr and Mahdi have agreed to "go quiet," leaving them with a substantially lower presence on the street.

The key to this is that Sadr/Mahdi have risen to prominence specifically because they are perceived as offering protection for the Shia civilians against their Sunni attackers.

By conducting these horrific attacks, one of them in Sadr City itself, the Sunnis have placed Sadr/Mahdi in a major political bind.

Do they lose their main cause of support by not returning to the streets?

Or do they return to the streets to protect their people increasing the probability of conflict with the US and greatly complicating Maliki's one sided implementation of the security plan?

Terrorism is a "tipping point" strategy. It is intended to force an alteration of decisions or policy through the use of horror. That's its sole use.

The violence in Iraq, at least that conducted by the large groups, is not random. It is conducted to achieve specific purposes, and in this case, the goal appears to be to complicate Maliki's plan to use the US to fight the Sunnis for him.

(Sorry for the long rant, but I think this is a very important point.)

Picture of the Day - 2

A hospital cleaner moves past the bodies of people discovered around Baghdad, Iraq, and brought to Yarmouk's hospital's morgue, Saturday Jan. 13, 2007. Police recovered dozens of bodies, apparent victims of sectarian violence in the capital. (AP Photo/Khalid Mohammed )

Quickhits - Fighting Blogger

I'm tired of fighting Blogger this morning, so, I'm going to dump it all in a quickhits post.

(Reuters) Iraqi rebels make $1 billion a year from refinery.

(UPI) The US is changing its rules and will allow local Sunnis to serve in the Iraqi Army in Anbar. (It will help get above the 50% fill rate, but I would think infiltration will be huge.)

(UPI) Iraqi troops will receive a $150/month bonus for deploying to Baghdad. (That is a big money bribe in today's Iraq.)

(Reuters) Pakistan bombed a camp in the S. Waziristan border region. (There are already suspicions it was the US again.)

(AP) The attack came (coincidentally) on the same day Gates visited Afghanistan.

And, I found this story on the Republican backbiting over Mel Matinez being put up for "general chairman" of the Republican party quite entertaining. Immigration is the issue, and already they're using the coded language against Martinez, "Outsourcing our leadership at this critical time is not an option."

Iran asks Saudi for help with US?

If true, this is very interesting.

A Saudi official said on Monday Iran had asked Saudi Arabia, a U.S. ally, to help ease tensions between the Islamic Republic and the United States, as Washington held out the possibility of "engagement" with Tehran if it changed tack in Iraq.

An Iranian newspaper on Tuesday quoted a foreign ministry official denying a request for mediation.

Both Rice and Prince Saudi played down talk of mediation. "There is no need for mediation between the United States and Iran," Rice said, referring to a standoff over Iran's nuclear program, which she said was between Iran and the United Nations not Washington.

"There is no need for mediation," Saud al-Faisal said, but added: "Our relations with the United States are longstanding ... Iran is a neighbor of Saudi Arabia, so obviously we hope to avoid any conflict."

Do I assume this is exactly as presented? (You would think it would be worth at least a headline.)

Why did the Saudis want this out there? Was this a Saudi effort to pressure the US into talks? To make the Iranians look weak?

Also: The WaPo reports on the cool response the Saudis are giving Rice and the "new" plan.

The BBC says that Ahmadinejad has come under significant pressure in the last week with hardline newspapers criticizing his stance.

And, check out this quote from the Guardian,

The defence secretary, Robert Gates, told reporters that the decision to deploy a Patriot missile battalion and a second aircraft carrier to the Gulf in conjunction with a "surge" of troops in Iraq was designed to show Iran that the US was not "overcommitted" in Iraq.

Picture of the Day

In this undated photo released by the U.S. Air Force at Hill Air Force Base, Senior Airman Elizabeth A. Loncki, 23, of New Castle, Del., Tech Sgt. Timothy R. Weiner, 35, of Tamarac, Fla., and Senior Airman Daniel B. Miller Jr., 24, of Galesburg, Ill., are shown. All three airmen from Hill Air Force Base were killed in Iraq after a car bomb exploded, the U.S. Air Force said Monday, Jan 8, 2007. (AP Photo/U.S. Air Force via Standard-Examiner)

The House leadership not imposing disclipline on Iraq plan?

Maybe lost today was this quote.

“Voters will recognize a phony and a fraud,” said Representative Tom Cole of Oklahoma, who is leading the Republicans’ 2008 efforts to gain back the majority they lost in the House. “If you believe the president is right you should say so. If you have a legitimate and honest difference with the president, you shouldn’t hesitate to draw that difference.”

The Republican (minority) leadership is greenlighting dissent?

The duplicitous "Saint" John McCain

I'm now embarassed to admit it, but I'm still on the McCain mailing list. (I was a supporter in 2000.)

The reason I admit this now is because I want to call bullshit on McCain's statement regarding the surge,

"I have presidential ambitions, but they pale in comparison to what I think is most important to our nation's security. If it destroys any ambitions I may have, I'm willing to pay that price gladly," McCain said."

On the night of the Bush speech, I received not one, but two calls from McCain's political operation. One before the speech, and one after. I didn't exactly hear what the "volunteers" were seeking because I was too busy shouting obscenities into the phone.

Then, a couple days later, I received a mailer from the McCain Exploratory Committee (asking for money, of course.)

These are the first contacts I've had in over a year.

I just want to point out that for all his public protestations about his "costly" position, he sure is trying to use his current prominence as "surge spokesman" to full advantage.

(BTW - I'm never getting off this list, am I? I've called, I've written, but they just keep sending me stuff.)

Caesar, the legions are not with us.

I guess we now know why the press wasn't allowed in the room when Bush "met with the troops" the other day.

A group of more than 50 active-duty military officers will deliver a petition to Congress on Tuesday signed by about 1,000 troops calling for an end to the U.S. occupation of Iraq. “Any troop increase over here will just produce more sitting ducks, more targets,” said Sergeant Ronn Cantu, who is serving in Iraq.

(After the Fort Benning meeting, the soldiers who met with Bush were also barred from speaking to the press.)

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Maj. Gen. Glenn K. Rieth, Adjutant of the New Jersey National Guard, answers questions at the New Jersey National Guard armory in Bordentown, New Jersey, January 13, 2007, where family members of soldiers deployed in Iraq learned details about the extension to their deployment orders. Approximately 150 soldiers from New Jersey will have their tours of duty extended for an additional 125 days in Iraq. REUTERS/Chip East

Iraq has not been lost by a lack of American "patience" or "will"

This war has not been lost by an American "lack of patience," although that is how the administration will try to spin it. The reality is that the mainstream America has not lost patience with the war, they have lost patience with this administration's prosecution of the war.

I think it's certainly fair to debate whether the US could have ever "won" Iraq (I tend to fall on the "no" side,) but if America was to have won Iraq, it could not have made all the mistakes this administration has made.

It is not the American people who will lose this war by calling for withdrawal. I would argue that calling for withdrawal is their only option in the face of incompetence.

And, what does it say about the public's assessment of the prosecution of this war that they would prefer "defeat" to continuing to allow the Bush administration to run this war?

The dynamics in Iraq have changed

One of the more fundamental shifts I haven't seen discussed much is the idea that, despite the Bush administration's dogged insistence, there is a growing understanding in Iraq that the US adventure is now on borrowed time. This mostly unstated understanding appears to be informing decision making on all sides.

From the US side, I think this explains the political over military nature of "the surge;" it's designed to assure the various actors that the US will stay for the long term. This plan is more about stopping a shift in the thinking and behavior of Iraqi politicians and power brokers than it is about substantially altering the situation on the ground. On the ground, it's a huge gamble.

The Shia and Kurds do appear to be preparing themselves by aligning themselves more closely with Iran. (There is no indication of an end of Iranian influence.)

Watch very closely how the various Iraq actors play this surge. Early reports are, that Sadr will try to play this "surge" smart waiting out this final US ploy.

(In the Iraqi press, the guidance being issued by Sadr is "follow the orders of the Americans until the storm passes."

"Storm." Maybe violent, but very temporary.)

The Iraqi government is in a trickier position as it cannot be perceived as directly contradicting the US's will, but at the same time, must attempt to construct a future situation where Shia interests are intact. Its plan appears to be to complicate and structurally undermine the US effort in such a way as to both preserve their power and protect their factional allies for the day when the US withdraws.

The unknown at this point is how long the Sunni Gulf states will withold themselves from similarly, openly supporting the Sunnis.

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A traffic policeman looks at police propaganda posters on a wall in Baghdad January 14, 2007. The posters read 'We will do our best for the sake of Iraq, our pride and glory'. REUTERS/Namir Noor-Eldeen

The failure is on the front pages

On the front page of the Washington Post, Bush says that his Iraq plan is going forward.

On the front page of the NYTimes, US military officials in Baghdad report that the plan that will be implemented will not be what Bush envisions.

And, if it doesn't work?

(AFP) Top administration officials are however adamant that contemplating an alternative would simply doom the current plan to failure.

"I don't think you go to plan B. You work with plan A," Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Thursday, explaining why the administration had no contingency plans lined up.

"You work with plan A and you give it the possibility of success, the best possibility of success."

Picture of the Day

Burnt vehicles lie on a road after a car bomb attack in Baghdad January 13, 2007. Three civilians were wounded in the attack, police said. REUTERS/Ali Jasim

But what if the Iraqis want the Iranians there?

Bush's plan is to crack down on the Iranians who are "destabilizing" Iraq. I know I keep repeating this, but what if the Iraqis want them there?

The Iraqi government called Sunday for the release of five Iranian officials accused by the U.S. military of being linked to an organization that provides weapons to Iraqi militants and supports violence against U.S. troops.

The US policy appears to be to try and blunt Iranian political influence through the use of force.

Administration officials say the goal is limited to preventing Iranians from aiding in attacks on American and Iraqi forces inside Iraq. But in recent interviews and public statements, senior members of the Bush administration have made it clear that their agenda goes significantly further, toward foiling Iran’s dream of emerging as the greatest power in the Middle East.

The problem is that the Shia and Kurds are considering two offers, not just one, and right now, the Iranian plan looks alot more attractive to them than the US plan.

The administration now views Iraq as a war of influence against Iran.

(With Iran being a neighbor with strong ties into the dominant Shia groups, how would you ever "win" that conflict?)

Picture of the Day - 3

Vice President Dick Cheney arrives for an interview with FOX News Sunday at their offices in Washington, Sunday, Jan. 14, 2007. (AP Photo/Haraz N. Ghanbari)

Bush's magical defense

I can't help but think how Bush's latest "To oppose everything while proposing nothing is irresponsible," is almost impenetrable.

As the alternate position recognizes that "victory" is no longer possible, and Bush refuses to concede that point, there is no alternative that would be deemed an acceptable argument.

Therefore, his delusion guarantees him protection.

A little busy

Sorry if the blogging is a little rough, but I finally picked up a new dog at the SPCA yesterday afternoon, and right now we're getting acquainted, learning the house rules, trying to communicate, etc.

Picture of the Day - 2

(US Senator Robert Byrd is approached by Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman, Senator Carl Levin during a full committee hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC. (AFP/Tim Sloan))

More spying on Americans

The top story is that the US military has been looking into US coporate and individual financial records using National Security Letters.

That seems to be already garnering alot of coverage, so I thought I might highlight this one, instead.

Deep into an updated Army manual, the deletion of 10 words has left some national security experts wondering whether government lawyers are again asserting the executive branch’s right to wiretap Americans without a court warrant.

The deletion changes the requirement from going through FISA to “or upon attorney general authorization.”

So, what's the conversation at Camp David?

Both the House and Senate Republican (Minority) leadership are meeting with Bush this weekend at Camp David. I'd be really curious about that conversation. As the Washington Post points out in a couple of articles, their control is slipping.

Regarding the troop "surge," "within hours, several Republican letters of opposition were circulating in the House..."

But, perhaps more interesting have been the defections on the domestic agenda in the 100 hours campaign,

"The closest vote last week -- Friday's push to require the federal government to negotiate lower drug prices for Medicare -- pulled 24 Republicans. The Democrats' homeland security bill attracted 68 Republicans, the minimum wage increase 82."

The 2006 midterm rattled them and as members look to their own political futures, discipline is breaking down.

Lame Duck. It's what's for dinner.

Picture of the Day

A man walks past the bodies of people discovered around Baghdad, Iraq, and brought to Yarmouk's hospital's morgue, Saturday Jan. 13, 2007. Police recovered dozens of bodies, apparent victims of sectarian violence in the capital. (AP Photo/Khalid Mohammed )