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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Friday, January 19, 2007

Springing up like mushroom (clouds)

The Jordanian King (who must be democratically elected because the Bush administration supports him) talked to Haaretz.
"But, the rules have changed on the nuclear subject throughout the whole region. Where I think Jordan was saying, 'we'd like to have a nuclear-free zone in the area,' after this summer, everybody's going for nuclear programs.

"The Egyptians are looking for a nuclear program. The GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council] are looking at one, and we are actually looking at nuclear power for peaceful and energy purposes. We've been discussing it with the West. "

2 Comments:

  • I heard this on the BBC on the way into work today.

    While there certainly were many events leading up to this point, I'd have to say three recent forces have moved the switch further toward a nuclearized second world.

    A) Pakistan and India developed and tested nuclear weapons, AND THERE WAS NO PENALTY TO PAY. The world, including Clinton who just sort of shrugged off the whole thing, gave a tentative pass to anyone interested.

    B) The US invasion of Iraq coupled with the non-action against North Korea. Here we proved the axiom that nuclear weapons can be a deterrent against foreign invasion.

    And C) (or maybe it's B1) Iran's going toe-to-toe with the West and so far only suffering limited sanctions.

    America has demonstrated its vision of neo-manifest destiny vis-à-vis the Muslim world. Also America's military is "all-in" in Iraq with little actionable ability to insinuate itself elsewhere, hence "while the cat's away..."

    By Blogger -epm, at 9:13 AM  

  • If I were forced to make an argument, I would probably say it's the shift from diplomacy to aggression (your B) summed up in the utterance of the "axis of evil" speech that set this off.

    When the US invaded Iran's neighbors Iraq and Afghanistan, Iran was pretty much forced along the nuclear path for defense.

    For decades Israel and the US have held the advantage with their nukes, that put a long standing pressure that was released by the US reaction to 9/11.

    (And, I would also importantly add the technological improvements which have made the whole thing easier. Not only the proliferation network of AQ Khan, deriving directly from Pakistan's unchallenged program, but also the rise in computing power and materials science that has made design and production much easier. You no longer need a supercomputer and the materials are now within normal high manufacturing standards.(Plus, alot of the core science is more broadly available in textbooks and internet.))

    The scary thing is that we're going to face roughly the same situation on bioweapons in about a decade as the technology becomes simpler and methods more widespread.

    Mike

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 10:30 AM  

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