The AP greets the Mahdi arrests with the proper skepticism
I'm still going with "a tactical and propaganda feint" until we see more follow through.
I do find it suspect that it's Mahdi commanders telling us how tough Maliki has become. That's awfully politically convenient for Maliki right now.
(Again, I think these arrests may be the drug baron and the dirty cop. Sadr has to give up a certain number of arrests to Maliki for politics, so he's using the opportunity to clean house.)
FRI AM: The big headline is that the Iraqis arrested a Sadr aide, but there seems to be alot of conflicting reports thus far, some saying it was US, some saying it was Iraqi forces. The BBC tells the Sadr line that he was the Baghdad media director.
We'll have to wait and see.
Mahdi Army fighters said Thursday they were under siege in their Sadr City stronghold as U.S. and Iraqi troops killed or seized key commanders in pinpoint nighttime raids. Two commanders of the Shiite militia said Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has stopped protecting the group under pressure from Washington and threats from Sunni Muslim Arab governments.
The two commanders' account of a growing siege mentality inside the organization could represent a tactical and propaganda feint, but there was mounting evidence the militia was increasingly off balance and had ordered its gunmen to melt back into the population....
The militiamen said al-Sadr himself had apparently gotten wind of the coming assault and ordered a reshuffling of the Mahdi Army command structure, transferring many leaders to new districts and firing others who were of suspect loyalty.
I do find it suspect that it's Mahdi commanders telling us how tough Maliki has become. That's awfully politically convenient for Maliki right now.
(Again, I think these arrests may be the drug baron and the dirty cop. Sadr has to give up a certain number of arrests to Maliki for politics, so he's using the opportunity to clean house.)
FRI AM: The big headline is that the Iraqis arrested a Sadr aide, but there seems to be alot of conflicting reports thus far, some saying it was US, some saying it was Iraqi forces. The BBC tells the Sadr line that he was the Baghdad media director.
We'll have to wait and see.
posted by mikevotes at
5:28 PM
3 Comments:
Also missing -- unless I missed it -- was any condemnation of al-Maliki as a puppet of Bush, or what have you, by the Mahdi people. As reported, the Mahdi Army commanders appear to be very matter of fact about the entire ordeal.
There is an inkling in the article, however, that al-Maliki may be willing to play the Pontius Pilot role and wash his hands of Sadr City and let the Americans surge in -- as long as we let the Iraqi military take the lead elsewhere.
Is it possible al-Maliki and al-Sadr are willing to "sacrifice" Sadr City to appease Bush's "retaking of Baghdad" in order to have Bush declare victory, deescalate and then re-emerge? Is it possible al-Maliki is using Sadr City as a container for American troops -- to get the U.S. to but the bulk of it military eggs in that one basket -- while insurgents melt into other areas of Baghdad?
By
-epm, at 6:00 PM
Also, just as a broader observation, when's the last time you hear the term "Coalition forces?" Have the media given up that little charade?
By
-epm, at 6:03 PM
I think he would be willing to let the Americans into Sadr City, but I don't think that's necessarily a washing of hands. If Sadr gets warnings, every significant mission (led by the Iraqis after all,) would be tipped. Sadr is getting plenty of warning to move all the top guys and suspects out of the area, into other neighborhoods, down to Basra.
I don't think they have to sacrifice anything. If the US troops roll in, they lose a little face, but the security will be OK, and with warning, there will be no significant loss to the organization. I don't see the US being allowed to establish anything but temporary bases.
As for "tying down" US troops, somewhat. If the Us guards Sadr City, it frees Mahdi from the obligation. If they want, they've suddenly got an extra 15,000 fighters available to move wherever they want.
After all, they really don't want to fight the US; they want to fight the Sunnis. So, "territory" is not as important except from a PR point of view. Their key is freedom of movement.
So long as Mahdi knows what's coming, they can use it to their advantage.
Just opinion/speculation.
By
mikevotes, at 9:10 PM
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