Fundraising

We're coming to the close of another '08 fundraising quarter with Clinton and Obama looking to be around the $20 million mark, but there's some interesting questions on the Republican side.

First, this healthy sounding analysis of the Republican field,

"It looks like Rudy Giuliani's going to lead this quarter, Mitt Romney's going to have to write another check to himself, John McCain is not going to break out like he was hoping he would, and Fred Thompson is going to be challenged, because he doesn't have a finance structure in place yet," predicted Scott Reed, a GOP consultant, who ran Bob Dole's 1996 presidential campaign.

Second, the revelation that Fred Thompson is still largely fundraising in his homestate of Tennessee. (That money should come in with less effort.)

"If you look at what he's doing in fundraisers this week, he's doing Tennessee," Reed said. "That isn't exactly a knock'em, rock'em, sock'em roll out of fundraising. You'd think he'd be doing New York, Chicago, Miami, L.A., Dallas."

And, third, what to make of this?

There’s also a significant infusion of new blood on the GOP side: Among Republican givers, 89 percent of donors did not give to President Bush in his 2004 reelection race.

I might argue that many of the missing Bush donors are "winner chasing." If you look at Republicans across the board, their fundraising is down now that they can guarantee less for their donors.

Will the Bush donors step in when a nominee is chosen, or are they "smart money," only laying out when they see a potential return on investment?

Diminished opposition fundraising is one of the unexplored elements of the Clinton "inevitability" push.