On polling: State of the race

There's a new ABC/WaPo poll, Obama 53/43, that's likely going to make waves today, but, it's just one poll, etc, and it's my hunch that it was conducted right at Obama's peak late last week, so I think it's probably a point or two high.

However, in the broader polling, the race seems to have very much settled into a remarkably stable pattern with Obama right around 50% and McCain steady in the low 40's.

(McCain is still trapped below that extremely hard ceiling at 45%. All year, even at his peaks, McCain hasn't bee able to get enough independents to break 45%. That's the number I'm watching. Until McCain beaks 45, it's a guaranteed loss.)

Anyway, I kinda wanted to look at the internals, here. From the WaPo version, McCain's main attack lines are failing,

On taxes, an issue that often benefits Republicans and that McCain has worked aggressively to highlight, Obama holds a significant lead for the first time as voters gave the Democrat an 11-point edge on whom they trust to handle tax policy....

McCain's efforts to portray Obama as a risky choice do not appear to have worked, either. In fact, voters are likelier to describe the Republican candidate that way.....

Yet on the broader question of leadership, voters gave Obama a 14-point advantage, saying, by 54 percent to 40 percent, that he is a "stronger leader" than McCain.

Also, from the ABC version, this would seem to indicate why the polls are fairly fixed,

Given the critical elements at play, attention to the contest is extraordinary. Ninety-two percent of registered voters are following the election closely, 59 percent "very" closely – both mid-October records in ABC and ABC/Post pre-election polls back to 1988.

And, the enthusiasm gap is back,

Just 29 percent of his own supporters are "very enthusiastic" about his campaign, the fewest since August and down a sharp 17 points from his post-convention peak. By contrast, 63 percent of Obama's backers are very enthusiastic, steady since September.

Related: Read the last section of this "Focus on White Voters" to get some idea of where the McCain camp sees their road back into the election.