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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Monday, September 08, 2008

White women

I think this is probably the talking point of this round of polling. The upcoming ABC/WaPo poll shows McCain picking up 20% in two weeks among white women. Let's wait and see the raw data before we commit to argument, but, if that bears out in other polls, even to a lesser degree, that's a biggish deal. (And it will be certainly pinned on Palin.)

On the bright side, depending on how that demographically breaks down, some sections of "white women" are extremely responsive on economic issues where Obama holds a clear advantage.

It's still too early to make any broad pronouncements, but the polls seem to have come out of the Republican convention even. If the bounce just got them even, I'm reasonably happy, but, honestly, we just need to take some time to see how the polling bears out.

Afterthought: The sample size on "white women" inside the ABC Poll is likely pretty small, so don't make too much out of this unless we see it broadly confirmed.

Plus, I don't know the numbers, but, if he did really pick up +20 among "white women" to get to these numbers, doesn't that mean he probably didn't really gain in any other group? And if so, isn't one group easier to target than across the board?

Again, it may be statistical noise. Wait a week.

6 Comments:

  • Something tells me most women haven't had the time to really look into her issues yet. They're still excited over her impressive speech last week and that she went so hard after Obama.

    I mean, CNN just posted a story I blogged about last week regarding her Master's Commission address.

    Once her positions start getting scrutinized, I bet a lot of women will change their tune when they realize just how staunchly anti-choice she is.

    By Anonymous jeff, at 8:50 PM  

  • Jeff, that's kinda my hunch, but, we do have to divide "white women" also into all the subgroups, by income, married-nonmarried, religious, etc.

    Also, I would figure that the sample size for "white women" within poll sample of 1,000 (?) is likely small enough to come with alot of variability.

    I'm trying not to make too big a deal bout this one subfinding on one poll, but, if it bears out in other samples, it would be notable.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 9:02 PM  

  • Sarah Dearest believes the world is 6,000 years old. She is against choice even in the cases of rape and incest, she asks that we “respect” her daughters “decision” BUT would see that judges are appointed that would REFUSE to allow my daughter the right to “choose.” She believes the war is a challenge from “God.” She says “God” SUPPORTS her choice for a pipeline in Alaska and asks us to pray to Him to support her.

    The woman is not STUPID she is just OUTRAGIOUSLY IGNORANT. Surely, America has had enough of ignorant.

    By Blogger Mylegacy, at 9:19 PM  

  • You would think........

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 10:08 PM  

  • "Surely, America has had enough of ignorant."

    You're being funny, right? Most of America is too ignorant to recognize ignorant. Indeed, there are pockets where ignorance is championed as wisdom.

    The question is, will the ignorant be more motivated to vote than the informed, the cynical, and the apathetic?

    By Blogger -epm, at 7:41 AM  

  • I think it's more a question of whether the McCain campaign can separate voters from the issues they care about.

    I don't see it as two camps, informed and non-informed, I see it as a shaping of the decision making process.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 8:07 AM  

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