New voter Registration
The AP is reporting 2 million new Dem voters registered in 28 states that track party ID (Republicans -344,000.) For context,
So, the Dems are plus 2 million in only 28 states off nationwide base numbers of 42 million Dem, 31 million Repub.
Notes: It's impossible to tell how many of those were crossover registrations just to vote in the Dem primaries.
Second, no breakdown of which states which may matter alot.
Third, the Obama camp has generally played very tight with the specifics of their voter registration program (ie how many and which states) which could be judged as good news, bad news, or a strategic effort to keep the McCain campaign guessing.
Despite all that, broadly, you have to consider this good news for Obama. This is the great unknown in this race, how many they've registered, and how the Obama turnout looks come election day.
Also, (WaPoBlog) Virginia registers 49,000 new voters in August alone, 36,500 in July. No party ID in registration.
Nationwide, there are about 42 million registered Democrats and about 31 million Republicans, according to statistics compiled by The Associated Press.
So, the Dems are plus 2 million in only 28 states off nationwide base numbers of 42 million Dem, 31 million Repub.
Notes: It's impossible to tell how many of those were crossover registrations just to vote in the Dem primaries.
Second, no breakdown of which states which may matter alot.
Third, the Obama camp has generally played very tight with the specifics of their voter registration program (ie how many and which states) which could be judged as good news, bad news, or a strategic effort to keep the McCain campaign guessing.
Despite all that, broadly, you have to consider this good news for Obama. This is the great unknown in this race, how many they've registered, and how the Obama turnout looks come election day.
Also, (WaPoBlog) Virginia registers 49,000 new voters in August alone, 36,500 in July. No party ID in registration.
posted by mikevotes at
7:18 AM
8 Comments:
I've read reliable reports saying 255K new registered voters by the Obama campaign since the primaries.
Ohio has changed their election laws to allow early voting, and their Sec. of State is a Democrat this time.
With the notable exception of Indiana's "Real ID" law, it has become easier to register and vote early in at least four states that I can think of off the top of my head. And most the "states which may matter a lot" have Democratic SOS, so electoral trickery is made more difficult.
The downside for the Obama campaign is that the stupid "battleground model" has meant giving up on almost half of the states as far as organising, so all lists, databases, and organising efforts must be built from scratch. But they have had enough time, money, and people to do that.
As for the much-vaunted Republican database used in 2000/2004, I have spoken with several IT professionals over the past 2 years that worked on it in five different states, and the word is that it is a mess.
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Todd Dugdale , at 10:17 AM
I thought I'd seen a report that they'd gotten 200K in Florida alone, but I don't have a cite.
Targeting new voters, the new breadth and availability of early voting may have a real impact. You don't have to try and talk the college kids into it on election day, but can instead, check in with them every week or so to see if they've voted yet.
And, that's a really interesting point on the database. Yes, all those people are now turning to Palin-McCain, but now they're going to be scrambling to try and get them into the system.
They've lost so many months of casual contacts that would have reworked that db, and now they're going to have to go with more of a last minute affair.
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mikevotes, at 10:35 AM
This comment has been removed by the author.
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Todd Dugdale , at 12:09 PM
I've read reliable reports saying 255K new registered voters by the Obama campaign since the primaries.
uhh..that should have read:
I've read reliable reports saying 255K new registered voters by the Obama campaign in Virginia since the primaries.
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Todd Dugdale , at 1:38 PM
Todd, first off for your last comment, yeah, that's the kinda registration numbers I've been seeing. Not enough to win everywhere, but enough to win close states if a good percent of those new voters turnout.
Second, working backwards, that would be a huge change if the db and contact process associated with it was that bad. In 2004 they were getting rave reviews not so much about their db, but for the way they used it. They were talking 10 years til the Dems caught up.
Now, the Obama campaign has been so "tech good" that it wouldn't surprise me if they had surpassed, but to read those quotes you're giving me in relation to what was considered state of the art just 4 years ago is mindblowing.
I could certainly believe that the McCain folks aren't necessarily tech friendly, but that would be a real step back.
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mikevotes, at 1:54 PM
McCain and Obama might not be on the ballot in Texas.
"The certification deadline which passed at 5 p.m. on August 26th – before the nomination of Barack Obama and even before John McCain selected a running mate – was clearly missed by both major party candidates."
Looking at the documents, the case seems shaky, but it's interesting.
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Todd Dugdale , at 1:59 PM
Oh, and I'm not questioning the veracity of your quotes, just a bit mindboggled by them.
THEORY: Up until Palin, the McCain campaign had pretty much given up on the ground game altogether (no volunteers,) so maybe the tech operation was underfunded under- attentioned because they saw little point in having the lists if they couldn't call them, door knock them, etc?
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mikevotes, at 2:00 PM
That would be huge, but I would also imagine that would be an unbelievable overlook for both campaigns.
I know the Barr people might want to hope, but I find it impossible to believe that both campaigns wouldn't have known the deadline was passing.
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mikevotes, at 2:34 PM
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