Dog bites man
There's a USAToday/Gallup poll this morning that's going to get a lot of press, McCain +4, 50-46.
It would be really notable if McCain really blew past that 45% ceiling he's been suffering for, wel, forever, but I'm going to wait a day or two and get the whole collection of polls and read some of the expert analysis from Charlie Cook, Larry Sabato, Chuck Todd, or even 538, before I really dig in.
(The USAToday/Gallup is a serious and credible poll, but how in the world did they suddenly get to only 4% undecided?)
It would be really notable if McCain really blew past that 45% ceiling he's been suffering for, wel, forever, but I'm going to wait a day or two and get the whole collection of polls and read some of the expert analysis from Charlie Cook, Larry Sabato, Chuck Todd, or even 538, before I really dig in.
(The USAToday/Gallup is a serious and credible poll, but how in the world did they suddenly get to only 4% undecided?)
posted by mikevotes at
7:00 AM
2 Comments:
"Undecided" has been dwindling for the past four days in the tracking polls. Gallup did a poll last Thursday showing the the number of swing voters has dropped dramatically, with 79% now "certain" of who they will vote for. There's a difference between "undecided" and "leaner" in polling terms.
Since tracking polls are three-day averages, we are just now seeing the response to McCain's and Palin's speeches. Any bounce they got from the RNC would be largest right now. While the bounce is larger than I expected, I would think it would fade in a few days - or by next weekend, in polling time.
There haven't really been any significant state polling results since just before Labour Day, so everyone has been fixating on the tracking polls because they are the only game in town. Doing state polling while in a bounce period is not a good idea, especially in a McCain bounce period.
By
Todd Dugdale , at 9:03 AM
That's my hunch. I really want to wait and see the other major polls before wading too far in, but my gut is saying we're about tied in the GOP bounce, so, still not that bad.
And, I was wondering about how to judge the state polling because I figured alot of them would likely be going into the field tight now.
Again, I'm on waiting right now. Yeah, you'd always rather be ahead than behind, but, I don't think where we are is stable.
By
mikevotes, at 10:07 AM
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