Iran
I didn't get to this yesterday because of all the tech trouble, but I do think it's notable that Iran's response to Obama's overture came from Grand Ayatollah Khamenei, not Ahmadinejad.
There are alot of possible reasons why 1) To take the issue out of the Iranian elections/the US overture undermines Ahmadinejad's oppositional strength. 2) Obama's offer to soften the relationship has unwanted traction in Iran, and the leadership wanted the religious authority in rejecting it. 3) The Iranians wanted it clear that the position towards the US was "supra-elections" and has a continuity regardless of who was in the elected leadershhip.
I'm really not sure why, but it feels significant that after all the Bush/Ahmadinejad sparring, this response came so unusually from above the presidential level.
There are alot of possible reasons why 1) To take the issue out of the Iranian elections/the US overture undermines Ahmadinejad's oppositional strength. 2) Obama's offer to soften the relationship has unwanted traction in Iran, and the leadership wanted the religious authority in rejecting it. 3) The Iranians wanted it clear that the position towards the US was "supra-elections" and has a continuity regardless of who was in the elected leadershhip.
I'm really not sure why, but it feels significant that after all the Bush/Ahmadinejad sparring, this response came so unusually from above the presidential level.
"You give the slogan of negotiation and pressure again ... Our nation cannot be talked to like this," Khamenei said.During his televised speech, the crowd chanted: "Death to America. Death to America."
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posted by mikevotes at
6:49 AM
7 Comments:
Very clear message I think. The point is basically to show the US it can't influence Iranian politics with more empty words. Lift the sanctions and stop making threats and we may see some change.
By
Anonymous, at 9:09 AM
Yeah, I mean, that was the topline message, but there's alot of small stuff going on concurrently, contacts, the Afghanistan meeting.
But I think the choice of messenger does carry a message here. Maybe it is, "we're not caving just because it's a new face?"
I don't know. It's just unusual to see the force of Khamenei carrying a foreign policy response.
By
mikevotes, at 10:46 AM
I think the US/Israeli strategy is to get some daylight between Khamenei and the so-called progressives. I can't see ordinary Iranians buying it with a gun to their heads.
By
Anonymous, at 11:12 AM
I actually could. The first step woulod be softening the aggravating language to get the reformist elected president, and with the economic issues dragging Ahmadinejad domestically, that's not a big stretch.
By
mikevotes, at 2:20 PM
But isn't that precisely what Khameinei is saying? What's the point of softer language if the message is the same? Words are fine but they want sanctions lifted and no threat of force. They'd also like to see the US take a less biased attitude towards Israel/Palestine but I think they'll wait a long time for that.
By
Anonymous, at 5:59 PM
Not necessarily. We're both arguing in speculation, so there's likely no winner, but my point is that they may not be waiting for sanctions to be lifted, but they did want a stronger position so that, even in lesser concessions, it looks more like a balance rather than them caving at the first offer.
These statements might be literal, or they might just be tactical.
It's too early to tell.
By
mikevotes, at 10:12 PM
The Obama statements may be tactical too. He could turn around in a few months and say he tried to be reasonable but the Iranians rejected his offer.
By
Anonymous, at 10:33 PM
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