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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Wednesday, October 01, 2008

The polling is the story today.....

Add to the earlier polling posts, this group of CNN/OPR state polls.
Florida 51/47
Minn. 54/43
Nevada 51/47
Virginia 53/44

Even Missouri. Obama 49/48.

"Obama has gained ground among moderates in all five states."

Also, a new AP/Gfk national today, Obama 48/41.

Later, a new CBS/NYTimes national, Obama 49/40.

It's also notable that Obama is near, at, or past 50% in alot of these polls. That would be winning even if almost all the undecideds went the other way.

(Definitely not election day yet, but all the electoral projections and all the polling averages are going to start tilting from this, and that will have a substantial narrative effect.)

Question: How much of this polling was done the night after the Dow dropped 777 points?

6 Comments:

  • To give perspective, my grandfather told my dad over the weekend that he's voting Obama.

    This from a man who was born and raised in Missouri, flew a confederate flag alongside the stars and stripes behind his golf cart, and as recently as Christmas referred to Obama as the other guy.

    When my dad asked him why, he said: "There's no way in hell I'm voting for John McClane. That guy is crazy."

    By Anonymous jeff, at 4:35 PM  

  • My sister's wobbled, and although I don't think either of them will flip, both my mom and dad are talking about it.

    And these are Texas (non-religious) Republicans.

    They're starting to ask, "Why do you like Obama....?"

    I think the narrative is starting to have an impact.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 4:40 PM  

  • How much of this polling was done the night after the Dow dropped 777 points?

    CNN polling was from 9/28 - 9/30, so I'm guessing less than half was post-crash.

    It's great to see some new polling for MN, though. I was getting tired of hearing analysis from people saying MN was a potential flip for McCain.

    In Gallup, though, Obama dropped to +4 today. The states are the more reliable indicator, however.

    On Rasmussen today, Obama's "favourables" are at 58%, with 39% "very favourable" and only 27% "very unfavourable".

    These numbers will make a smear campaign unlikely to gain traction.

    The 27% VU number is probably not coincidentally equal to the number supporting Bush, and probably not undecided voters, either.

    McCain's high-water mark was 50% two weeks ago (Rasmussen) at the crest of his convention bounce. Even then, he was only +3 over Obama. I know that you don't like daily trackers, but the point is comparing trends here. The MOE for Rasmussen is 2 points, so he's barely broken that, and only for three days the entire post-primary season.

    McCain would have to pull off something truly incredible to even get back into the running at this point.

    By Blogger Todd Dugdale, at 8:54 PM  

  • I've always figured that the blue rustbelt/midwesterns were safe, Mich, Pa, Minn, Wis, but like you, I'm glad to hear them taken out of the conversation.

    Also,I always assume the unfavorables constitute the other sides base, first.

    And I would base my version of your last line on the electoral map we were discussing yesterday. McCain has to win every single tossup (7 or so), PLUS steal at least one big from Obama.

    (And alot of those toss ups are looking alot less toss uppy, and alot more Obama.)

    Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if we fell back off this polling a little bit, but the math seems to be firmly on Obama's side with 5 weeks left.

    (Don't I remember talking about "the math on Obama's side a whole lot during the primary? That Obama camp is really good at their math.)

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 9:24 PM  

  • BTW, McCain has dropped to a single digit lead in Texas. Now only M +9 (Rasmussen).

    Deep red states are weakening considerably. Not enough to flip, as I said yesterday, but enough to show fundamental weakness in the GOP. Faith has been shaken.

    Being ahead like this tends to build a momentum of its own, since a fair percentage of voters want to be "on the winning side".

    But it can also breed complacency and dampen turnout, which is why early voting is such a benefit to the Democrats this election. I've read estimates that say 20% of the electorate could potentially vote by the end of next week. That would be a strong barrier against any McCain comeback if it were to happen.

    By Blogger Todd Dugdale, at 10:08 PM  

  • I noticed that today.

    I've got a too long post I wrote today on the power of the perception of losing. It kills voter enthusiasm, kills volunteer effort, lower campaign staff. I probably won't post it because it's too soft and too long, but, yeah, I've been thinkinmg about that, too.

    (And your point is valid, but I'd rather have troubles getting out votes in a perception of a winning candidacy than a losing one.)

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 10:25 PM  

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