My electoral map. Your electoral map.
It's a very slow day, so I thought I'd link in the DailyKos electoral map plaything.
For the life of me, I can't figure out how to embed my version of the electoral map into the blog, but I figured I could link it, and you could play with it yourselves. (Click on "Race calculator" at the top, and then you can fill in the states as you see fit.)
On my map, Obama wins Pa, Wis, Mich, and Colo, which gets him to 269 electoral votes, a tie that would be settled by the House of Representatives (Obama wins.)
To get past 269, Obama could win any one of these states: Fla, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and New Hampshire. (He's leading or tied in several.)
For McCain to win, he has to win all of those states, (Fla, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and New Hampshire plus Nevada, Indiana, Missouri, and all of the other close ones) without a single miss. PLUS he also has to pick off one of those Pa, Mich, or Colo.
Right now, on my map, Obama wins at 269 without Fla, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, or New Hampshire (Nevada, Indiana, Missouri....) That's a pretty large margin for error.
Play with the thingy yourself. You can make up your own mind.
For the life of me, I can't figure out how to embed my version of the electoral map into the blog, but I figured I could link it, and you could play with it yourselves. (Click on "Race calculator" at the top, and then you can fill in the states as you see fit.)
On my map, Obama wins Pa, Wis, Mich, and Colo, which gets him to 269 electoral votes, a tie that would be settled by the House of Representatives (Obama wins.)
To get past 269, Obama could win any one of these states: Fla, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and New Hampshire. (He's leading or tied in several.)
For McCain to win, he has to win all of those states, (Fla, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and New Hampshire plus Nevada, Indiana, Missouri, and all of the other close ones) without a single miss. PLUS he also has to pick off one of those Pa, Mich, or Colo.
Right now, on my map, Obama wins at 269 without Fla, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, or New Hampshire (Nevada, Indiana, Missouri....) That's a pretty large margin for error.
Play with the thingy yourself. You can make up your own mind.
posted by mikevotes at
4:28 PM
8 Comments:
Right now, on my map, Obama wins at 269 without Fla, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, or New Hampshire (Nevada, Indiana, Missouri....)
Tie is not a guarantee. Each state gets only one vote in the House. It's likely to go Obama's way, but I'd hate to count on that.
NV looks as if it could break for Obama. Rasmussen polled it at M+3 a bit less than three weeks ago when McCain was riding high in the national trackers, and Rasmussen uses a likely voter screen that underestimates Obama's support.
NC looks even better, with Rasmussen polling O+2 there last week.
FL is tied on Rasmussen a few days ago, and again, likely voters in those numbers.
IN could really go either way, and OH is too hard to predict.
In any case, If Obama wins any one of these, and he's in the White House. That's five options that all have to break McCain's way, without even including NH.
By
Todd Dugdale , at 12:17 AM
Agreed. The 269 case was a minimum, and I'm pretty sure he'll pick up at least one (or more) of those seven. Some of them are leaning his way in the polling right now.
And Virginia which I don;t think you mentioned is also a pretty good shot. I haven't done all the digging to look at where the turnout historically has been, but it's my sense the Republican parts aren't likely to turn out past '04 while the Dem parts may well be.
Also, I left Indiana out of Obama's map for two reasons. 1) History. I've seen the polling, but my hunch is that it's like Michigan or PA, in a tossup, it'll probably land on its usual side.
2) I don't think Indiana's the likely tipover to a win. If he wins Indiana, he's probably already well across the line. (Pretty much like Missouri.)
However, from the McCain defensive side, Indiana's probably a bigger deal because he can't have a single miss.
,,,,
Bottom line, we have that "big Obama map" with lots of ways to win against McCain who has to be perfect and overturn a couple of poll leads.
To my eyes, the map looks pretty good right now.
By
mikevotes, at 6:44 AM
Yes, I forgot VA, which is also looking as if it will swing Obama's way by a bare margin.
IN is close because McCain has devoted no resources there for a ground game. Even if Obama loses it, it will no longer be a reliable state that the GOP can take for granted.
I think this current situation demonstrates the value of the 50 state strategy. FL and OH are now just two of 7 possible paths to victory, and McCain has to spread himself very thin while Palin is "in training".
Another interesting point is that WY, ID, MT, ND, NE are all polling significantly behind Bush's 2004 numbers. While they will still go for McCain, they are not nearly as solid as everyone expected them to be. These states could also turn out to be "pink" in 2012.
Republican hegemony is crumbling.
By
Todd Dugdale , at 9:09 AM
I saw the RNC was now starting to run ads in Indiana which does reinforce the case that it's in play.
I don't know if those west states will stay that pink in four more years after, but this year that could also have downballot implications.
(Frankly, I shouldn't be commenting because I don't know any of those states well enough.)
By
mikevotes, at 10:46 AM
And I figured Va was just an oversight.
By
mikevotes, at 10:46 AM
Hello. And Bye.
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