Do I believe this?
There's some new Quinnipiac state polling out there showing a huge Obama lift in Ohio (Obama +8,) Florida (Obama +8,) and Penn (Obama +15.)
I'm a little skeptical as this feels out of line to me, (FirstRead seems to say it's not,), but it will unquestionably shape the "McCain sliding" narrative, and it will alter all of those overreported polling averages.
The perception of losing is powerful.
I'm a little skeptical as this feels out of line to me, (FirstRead seems to say it's not,), but it will unquestionably shape the "McCain sliding" narrative, and it will alter all of those overreported polling averages.
The perception of losing is powerful.
posted by mikevotes at
9:07 AM
3 Comments:
I believe it.
Voters' opinions are solidifying. Only 6% are undecided, down from 8% last week, and they are obviously breaking for Obama.
A lot can change in a month, but there aren't very many big opportunities left. The debates are it, barring any kind of manufactured foreign policy crises (e.g. another "naval incident" with Iran).
Any stunt the McCain campaign tries will be viewed sceptically by all but The Faithful.
By
Todd Dugdale , at 8:53 AM
I think the debates brought alot of those wobblies in. The people who liked Obama but harbored doubts.
And the window is definitely closing, and I would repeat that the perception of losing is powerful. It kills enthusiasm, kills volunteers, and gets less done in a day than a fervent campaign.
McCain needs that gamechanger, but now, with the reputation for stunts, he's not going to be given much credibility if he tries one.
(And short of Obama stepping on himself, what could McCain really do in the debates to shift 5 or 6 or more points?
By
mikevotes, at 10:42 AM
The one thing I would add is that these jumps seem to far outpace the national numbers.
That certainly doesn't mean they're not true, especially since Obama is spending crazy money in these states and doing alot of microtargeted advertising below the radar, but that's why I'm hesitant to jump in with two feet.
By
mikevotes, at 10:55 AM
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