Iraq
I just need to take a little stop here in the election stuff to note that there appears to be a major development brewing in Iraq.
The mainstream Shia SIIC and PM Maliki's Dawa party are "rapidly turning into bitter rivals." This has all sorts of implications from the upcoming elections to the dynamics of the US's presence to the legitimacy of Maliki's government.
The overt reason for the split is that Maliki is trying very hard to get the US-Iraq SoFA negotiated and signed, and the SIIC is opposing, but, more deeply, what we're seeing is Iranian/SIIC influence against the Iraqi PM over who will win the elections and whether the US/Maliki or Iran/SIIC will hold long term sway.
The mainstream Shia SIIC and PM Maliki's Dawa party are "rapidly turning into bitter rivals." This has all sorts of implications from the upcoming elections to the dynamics of the US's presence to the legitimacy of Maliki's government.
The overt reason for the split is that Maliki is trying very hard to get the US-Iraq SoFA negotiated and signed, and the SIIC is opposing, but, more deeply, what we're seeing is Iranian/SIIC influence against the Iraqi PM over who will win the elections and whether the US/Maliki or Iran/SIIC will hold long term sway.
posted by mikevotes at
8:16 AM
4 Comments:
Pakistan, too, is getting out of control. I was shocked to hear that over a thousand people have been killed by radical religious extremists (bombings) since the beginning of September.
This region is so f'ed up now. The odds of a good outcome are decreasing rapidly. We're looking at countries in the region becoming either anti-US (western?) nationalist (hmmm.. Iraq circa Saddam) or Talibani-like theocratic extremists states. The odds of pro-US outcomes? I don't know.
After countless dollars and lives have been consumed in the crucible of GOP neo-con imperial conquest, the end result may well be a region MORE unstable and MORE anti-US than when we started. Awesome. I'm sure McCain has the calm, patient temperament and keen cultural intellect to thread that needle. (God help us all if that becomes our reality)
By
-epm, at 9:21 AM
The bombings are very frequent, but most of them are smaller, out odf the capitol, and targeting Pakistanis, so they don't get the coverage of the Marriott bombing.
The US Afghan commander said yesterday that "the enemy" was now 30% bigger than a year ago.
Frankly, I'm hesitant to name an endpoint because it's so chaotic. I can't predict the outcome, but it's probably going to be either a pro-US puppet dictator, or a much more anti-US government of some type.
The main thing that could swing that is if the Pakistanis get worried about India again.
By
mikevotes, at 11:04 AM
Hopefully India has enough sense to stay out of this mess. More pressure will just make Pakistan worse.
By
Anonymous, at 11:17 AM
First thought is yes, plus we've got them on the hook with that nuclear deal.
On the other hand, they do keep having terrorist bombings by Pakistani linked crazies.
I don't think they do anything, though. I think they'd rather let Pakistan tear itself apart, so long as it stays on their side of the border.
(Disclaimer. I really don't know much at all about the India/Pakistani conflicts.)
By
mikevotes, at 11:33 AM
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