Good news for Obama, bad news for McCain
This is from CBS's snap poll(.pdf) from last night, so, judge it for what it is, but some of the economic numbers for Obama coming from that debate should give the McCain folks shivers. (Post debate numbers, just about the debate, among "uncommitted's".)
Who would make the right decisions about the economy? Obama 66, McCain 42.
Understands your needs and problems? Obama 79, McCain 41.
Obama got huge bumps on both of these, and in this economic year, those are important numbers, especially since Obama's "relatability" had been polling kinda low.
I guess it's not surprising off this polling (and the likely similar Obama campaign internal polling,) that Obama is pounding an economic message today and talking lots about the middle class.
(Also, pre-debate presidential preference, Obama +2, post debate, Obama +12. He "closed the deal" with some in this sample.)
Later: Obama's big running a populist economic ad right now. They're hitting this hard. I do think they saw something in their internal focus groups.
If they can find the language or the issues to connect with that middle/lower income rustbelt voter, this thing won't even be close.
Who would make the right decisions about the economy? Obama 66, McCain 42.
Understands your needs and problems? Obama 79, McCain 41.
Obama got huge bumps on both of these, and in this economic year, those are important numbers, especially since Obama's "relatability" had been polling kinda low.
I guess it's not surprising off this polling (and the likely similar Obama campaign internal polling,) that Obama is pounding an economic message today and talking lots about the middle class.
(Also, pre-debate presidential preference, Obama +2, post debate, Obama +12. He "closed the deal" with some in this sample.)
Later: Obama's big running a populist economic ad right now. They're hitting this hard. I do think they saw something in their internal focus groups.
If they can find the language or the issues to connect with that middle/lower income rustbelt voter, this thing won't even be close.
posted by mikevotes at
2:46 PM
8 Comments:
66+42= 108. 79+41= 120.
I'm confused on those numbers.
By
Praguetwin, at 3:51 PM
The effects of snap polls dampen over a few days, as you pointed out, but this is a bad development for McCain in several ways:
His recently-launched offensive against the MSM makes it more unlikely that the debate will be spun in McCain's favour.
The numbers of undecided voters in the polls are declining week by week. This is a bad time for McCain to have people forming solid opinions, and the debates are the last "institutional hurdle" of the election cycle.
Obama provided no ammunition in the debate for McCain to use against him later, other than his agreement with McCain on some points. It's hard to criticise someone for agreeing with you. He said nothing scary, crazy, or belligerent.
McCain said nothing new. Rather, he exposed a large audience to his familiar rhetoric, and it failed to win over large numbers. Very bad for McCain.
The effectiveness of negative ads rely on two things: the implicit credibility of the accuser and unfamiliarity with the accused. McCain gained no credibility by the debate, and Obama became more familiar. Thus, the chances of a big smear campaign in October doing substantial damage to Obama just got reduced considerably.
McCain's emphasis on Iraq is not a strength. Polling shows the majority believe it was a mistake to go into Iraq in the first place, so McCain's belief that we can "win" a mistake is not compelling.
By
Todd Dugdale , at 4:08 PM
Praguetwin, it's not an either or, "vote for the one you like."
It's do you think this guy can do this, yes or no. Do you think that guy can do this, yes or no.
It's like approval ratings, you can approve of them both.
....
Todd, To me the biggest change would be if Obama has found language to get people to think he cares about people like them.
It's not so much the effect from this debate itself, but, rather, if Obama has found a way to really connect with some of those white middle class working folks.
I don't think this debate locked that group, but if Obama can find the language to pull that group in, some of those rustbelt Dems and Dem leaners, this thing's not even close.
We'll have to wait and see, but you know they focusgrouped it, and are coming out with stronger versions of the language that worked today.
(Oh, and they polled almost equally among this focus group, (post-debate) on who was ready to lead on Iraq.)
By
mikevotes, at 4:34 PM
mike wrote:
It's not so much the effect from this debate itself, but, rather, if Obama has found a way to really connect with some of those white middle class working folks.
I'm not disagreeing with you there one bit.
My point was that there were several negative developments for McCain from this debate. For Obama it was more neutral. But Obama is currently ahead, and McCain really needed some good news. He got none of that, IMO.
By
Todd Dugdale , at 5:06 PM
For Obama, it almost always is neutral. That's how he plays the lead.
By
mikevotes, at 5:35 PM
Thanks. It is clear now.
I can't help but to think that Obama may be getting a little complacent. Wasn't Kerry ahead by more than this in the polls at this point?
Does McCain have a swift boat waiting in the harbor? Can Obama really feel secure with this lead?
By
Praguetwin, at 2:22 AM
Yup. Kerry was up here, but his personality negatives were beginning to go the wrong way.
The Obama folks are definitely playing safe. The one thing we don't know is how their new voter/irregular voter effotrt is going in the battleground states.
Frankly, they seem pretty confident with where they are which leads me to believe that they believe they're where they think they need to be.
As for a Swiftboat possibility.... Maybe, but I would think he'd have thrown it before some of the other stunts he's pulled.
But who knows?
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