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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Saturday, September 06, 2008

Why Palin over Lieberman, or maybe the idea of the "respectable loss."

I just want to float this out as a theory.

Let's go back a few weeks and do some imagining on the John McCain vice presidential selection process. The broad picture painted by the press is that McCain had been wanting Joe Lieberman for months, but that he had talked out of it by "advisers" on the Sunday night before the Wednesday when he decided on Palin.

Let's look at the two very different paths we're talking about.

My assumption of John McCain's thinking is that he believed Lieberman might well help him claim more of the center (although I'm a little dubious of that,) and that, despite the anger on the right, enough of those base Republicans would still show up to give him a shot at winning. Again, dubious, but you understand the logic.

However, take just a minute to think what that even slightly depressed evangelical/Republican base turnout could mean on all of those close downballot races.

Many of those "in trouble" and "near trouble" are fairly long term Congressmen and Senators who have a long history of winning 55/45 redistricted districts by staying hard right and relying on the Republican base to pretty much guarantee them through.

While McCain might believe he could pull of "centrist Maverick," all those downballot Republicans who have historically committed themselves to fundamentalist Republicanism certainly could not. Facing the possibility of an increased new voter turnout by the Obama folks, and a depressed Republican turnout by a Lieberman choice, suddenly they're in the stew and left, without national help, to try and drag their voters to the polls.

This, I would argue, was the objection to the McCain-Lieberman ticket. Not so much an ideological block as a "what it could cost the party" block, especially when, even at best estimates, McCain was looking at a 30-35% chance of winning.

On the other hand, Palin pulls out the evangelicals but doesn't help in the center, which likely makes McCain's race harder, but also likely makes all those downballot races in the 55/45 districts more solid for the Republicans (possibly preventing a 60 seat Dem Senate.)

The logical question is then "Why Palin? Why not Romney or Pawlenty or anyone else?

Look at the response she has gotten, even before her speech. Possible illegal use of office as Governor of Alaska, no practical foreign experience whatsoever, a pregnant underaged daughter, and still the right has put itself through ridiculous contortions so that they can still love her.

McCain recognized that he was losing, and not by some small margin, and while Romney and Pawlenty might please the base, and keep the Republican turnout from being depressed, they certainly wouldn't fire that same base and get turnout back up to 2004 levels.

He picked Palin because, in the "respectable loss" scenario forced on him, she was his best slight chance of not destroying the party and still trying to win through he 2004 base plus turnout model.

Frankly, I don't think that 2004 base plus campaign is enough for him to win, but it may be enough to keep him from going down as the man who cost the GOP 40 house seats, and 9 Senate seats.

If he had picked Lieberman, every bit of blame for every lost seat would be dumped onto his legacy. He would be remembered in Republican infamy.

Just a theory I'm chewing on. Feedback?

6 Comments:

  • I'd say it was mostly an image decision. Young, female, Palin projects change (GOP version). Lieberman is just another old white guy.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 9:07 AM  

  • Sounds like a plausible theory.

    I've been thinking that if McCain loses, Palin and the evangelicals are set up to be the scapegoats. The national security and economic wings of the GOP will say "Look, we gave you people everything you wanted and you didn't deliver the votes. We're better off without you. Good-bye."

    That would set up a huge split in the GOP, of course, but it's been coming for a long time. I don't believe for a minute that McCain is really sympathetic to the Palinites. He is using them, and they're falling for it.

    By Blogger Patrick, at 9:10 AM  

  • McCain wanted Lieberman because he likes him. Joe's been whispering hints in his ear for months now.

    The fallacy that so many seem to accept is that McCain is in charge of his own campaign. He isn't.
    The Party has his money and his organisation. They can turn support from fellow Republicans on or off like a faucet. If McCain loses, they can say it was he was too liberal, not because the Party is in serious decline.

    The Party stuck him with Palin. Their strategy is, frankly, ludicrous. It's Palin taking the right, and McCain taking the centre. They think that evangelicals/social conservatives will listen to Palin and ignore McCain, and moderates/independents will listen to McCain and ignore Palin. This might have worked twenty years ago, but not in this age where everything is recorded and put up on YouTube, blogged to death, and spread around the nation within hours. The contradictions will be painfully obvious.

    And to truly energise that evangelical base, Palin is going to have to say a lot of things that sound really crazy. They will have to keep her in closed-door situations and make sure nobody has a camera phone or voice recorder. Good luck with that in this age.

    By Blogger Todd Dugdale , at 9:45 AM  

  • Anon, so you think McCain was dissuaded by advisers from Lieberman because he wasn't "energetic" enough?

    ...

    Patrick, maybe. The only thing is the economic and foreign policy wings really need the evangelicals a bit more than the evangelicals need them.

    I'm working on the assumption that McCain loses until I see something that changes my mind (like maybe one national poll over 44%.) I would guess barring a Congressional bloodbath, they'll be about where they wer after 2006.

    However, I think they'll also blame Bush. Little said in all this is the impact this election will likely have on Republican's views on Bush's legacy.

    .....

    Todd, I'm sure that's the discussion his advisers had with him to talk him out of Lieberman.

    To your thesis, I would also add that McCain has had six months to reach to the center and really hasn't at all.

    (Plus, the policy remedies in his acceptance speech were not reaching to the center policy positions.)

    And, I don't know if Palin will have to be that crazy. They consider themselves a persecuted minority and have gotten really good at reading code passed to them in speeches. They know where she is on pro-life, evolution, etc. Just a few mentions of "purpose driven" governance and god directing our actions, and they'll get it.

    Amplified by CBN and the pastors, that's probably enough.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 11:41 AM  

  • Exactly, Mike, and great post.

    The evidence points to a long, long fight for McCain vs. his advisors to move him off Lieberman. McCain abhors the Pailinites, but not their votes.

    The key problem the Democrats have had is they don't understand how to, or won't, pander to the most invigorated electorate, the rednecks and evangelicals. Obama/Plouffe are counting on new turnout to overwhelm the old base. Dear god I hope they're right, but it seems more doubtful now.

    When I pointed out 28 years of cynical Republican religion-baitings to a devout friend over a few evenings, he finally said, "Well, you might be right. But at least they cared enough to pander."

    Later, this (former) friend, his wife and his kids went down to the state capitol with signs to protest a close gubernatorial election in WA for 3 days. Although Christine Gregoire withstood the recount, no Democrats ever demonstrated at any time. What would it take for Democrats to generate the same level of response?

    By Blogger MarcLord, at 10:49 PM  

  • I'll be really curious how he reacts over time to her being the more popular member of the ticket.

    An,d until McCain breaks 45% in a major (non tracking) poll,I'm not really concerned.

    (PS. the rednecks and evangelicals are shrinking as a part of the pie. Over the next 20 years, the Republican block is going to shrink against the Dem block assuming Dems continue to win minorities and working class.

    And, frankly, women are the biggest Dem advantage. Over half the electorate and the Dems continue to win them by 10-20 points.)

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 6:28 AM  

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