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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Sunday, September 28, 2008

Dodgy data points

It's my impression that the tracking polls aren't hugely accurate, but they do help shape media opinion and the narrative. (Not to mention the "polling averages.")

If you look at the two big trackers, Gallup (Obama +8) and Rasmussen (Obama +6,) the polling since McCain made the decision to "suspend" has been awful to McCain.

On the weight of these tracking results, and that ABC outlier midweek, the much cited RCP now shows Obama +4.8.

Even if the trackers aren't great polling, their impact on the race may be real. "Analysts" shape their opinions and coverage off those numbers, and the McCain surrogates have to answer questions based on these polls. This crap casts a shadow.

(Still waiting to see more formalized polling on the McCain suspension and the debate impacts. Are the major organizations going to run polls within the debates?)

Also, While popping around RCP, their averages currently show Obama +1.8 in Virginia, and tied in North Carolina, (There's a reason Obama/Biden spent the weekend there,) and most of that polling was before McCain's decision to suspend.

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