The meta-narrative on the Palin choice
Everyone's still in shock, so I don't think it's sunk in yet that John McCain told us yesterday that he doesn't think he can win without this massive game changing decision.
I think that's important because now, if the polls bump and slide, or maybe even at any wobbles, the media narrative will be that McCain gambled and lost.
However, it could also work.
The timing on this is very interesting. They announced her right after the Dem convention, possibly Obama's high water polling mark for the month, and right before the Republican convention where you would think they would get some kind of bounce, likely creating the impression of a polling surge.
Part of this play is that it's a "narrative pick" trying to use the likely environmental polling to try and create some saleable narrative of a McCain polling surge. (It also has the effect of energizing a Republican convention by firing up the fundies, a convention that was looking likely to be a pretty dead affair from the floor.)
The more I think about it, the more I think this is the gamble. They're trying to create this energized Republican/McCain surging narrative off the convention bounce, but, if the polling doesn't bear that out, they could be punished and relegated to already loser status months before the election.
66 days.
(PS. Wasn't there a meme going around just last week that VP choices don't win elections, but bad VP choices lose an election?)
I think that's important because now, if the polls bump and slide, or maybe even at any wobbles, the media narrative will be that McCain gambled and lost.
However, it could also work.
The timing on this is very interesting. They announced her right after the Dem convention, possibly Obama's high water polling mark for the month, and right before the Republican convention where you would think they would get some kind of bounce, likely creating the impression of a polling surge.
Part of this play is that it's a "narrative pick" trying to use the likely environmental polling to try and create some saleable narrative of a McCain polling surge. (It also has the effect of energizing a Republican convention by firing up the fundies, a convention that was looking likely to be a pretty dead affair from the floor.)
The more I think about it, the more I think this is the gamble. They're trying to create this energized Republican/McCain surging narrative off the convention bounce, but, if the polling doesn't bear that out, they could be punished and relegated to already loser status months before the election.
66 days.
(PS. Wasn't there a meme going around just last week that VP choices don't win elections, but bad VP choices lose an election?)
posted by mikevotes at
5:45 AM
6 Comments:
"However, it could also work."
If the McCain campaign were the only ones allowed to talk, then a narrative might be able to be made. Even then, I don't know what that narrative would be that somehow turns a politically ambitions, locally focused, young and inexperienced politician from the third least populous state into a credible candidate for the "National Security Party."
Keep in mind the Obama/Biden campaign will be out there selling their ticket and raising "concern" about the Republican ticket. Suddenly, Obama became the more conventional ticket! Will the media wring their hands and report their "concern" for this "gamble"? Will they report the raw politics of the Palin pick (to get over the November hump) at the expense of picking a "presidentially qualified" person?
We will simply have to wait and see. My feeling is that the "concern" ads from the Obama campaign (and friendly groups) will be devastating.... especially in this age of YouTube and Google. Palin is NOT a complete unknown within political circles. She is known, to some degree, and what is known is not flattering for someone who will be a melanoma case away from the Oval Office.
By
-epm, at 10:14 AM
Frankly, I agree with you. My opinion is that this was not a good decision, but I am couching my language as I'm not fully sure.
As a widget, she seems like a bad fit, but, not knowing her, there is that shot that she is electric and catches on. I'm certainly not betting on that, but I don't know her well enough to absolutely rule it out.
That's why I'm including wiggle language and repeating the phrase wait and see.
(I do expect the negative analysis to come out over time. The "electric" is the only hope I see that they might stave that off.
And I think the video from a month ago where she said she didn't know what the VP did all day is just waiting to be exploited. It made her seem completely ignorant of national politics. I haven't linked it yet because I'm looking for a longer version with some context.)
By
mikevotes, at 11:54 AM
I agree with your "wiggle room" language. As I've said before, you should never over estimate the stupidity of the American voter...
By
-epm, at 1:02 PM
And, there's a very short window here.
By
mikevotes, at 1:30 PM
The timing on this is very interesting. They announced her right after the Dem convention,
The RNC is in a few days. He pretty much had to pick someone soon. He could have waited until the very last minute, but that wouldn't leave any time for the base to get a look at her.
By
Todd Dugdale , at 4:13 PM
Definitely true as well, especially since the process seems to have broken down over Lieberman just last Saturday and then been rushed to settle on her.
So, maybe I'm giving the chaotic campaign too much credit there.
By
mikevotes, at 4:19 PM
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