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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Friday, August 29, 2008

The Palin equation

The more I think about this the weirder this is. They traded "experience," their primary, and most effective attack thus far, to defend against "economic out of touch," and to reach for women. (Defend Republican women?) They added a little bit of youth, and some version of Republican "change."

Does that equation work for you?

Also, is it good to have your "first presidential decision" called a gamble?

posted by mikevotes at 12:14 PM

24 Comments:

  • It's not only a gamble, it's a dumb bet. Picking Palin doesn't make McCain any less economically out of touch, any more than picking her makes him less old or own fewer homes. He's out of touch because he's not interested enough to be in touch.

    We're talking about something emotive, not intellectual. If Palin was an economist you could make the argument that it would help McCain with his understanding of the economy. But this is ridiculous; to suggest McCain somehow gains empathy?! Because Sarah Palin pays a mortgage? I know that's not what you're suggesting, but for the McCain campaign to suggest it is patronizing and insulting... Oh, wait. It's the GOP we're talking about.

    By Blogger -epm, at 12:40 PM  

  • My nasty line of the day,

    How does Cindy McCain feel about John surrounding himself once again with an attractive 40-ish woman?

    More seriously, I agree with your point, but I was struck how her "in touchness" was the headline of the McCain introduction, especially after "7 houses" and the repeated invocations in Obama's speech that McCain doesn't "get it."

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 12:58 PM  

  • Palin is McCain's Harriet Miers.

    A deep thought. Any chance that the Rep base will question the choice? If so, since the VP is on a separate ballot at the convention, couldn't they protest? Doubtful I know, but possible.

    By Blogger zen, at 2:01 PM  

  • I don't think so. She's revered by the pro-life people, so I don't think so. They're about the only ones who would be willing to stage a fight.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 2:15 PM  

  • If the Repub base was serious in it's attacks on Obama's "experience" then they'll be going nuts over Palin. But then again partisans of all strips are known for the ease with which they apply double standards.

    Another question regarding attitudes of the Repub base... She has an infant with Downs Syndrome, yet she's put her career above being a full time mom. How does this play? She also has four other kids. So she get's points for makin' babies, but does she lose points for leaving them to go to the office?

    This just gets curiouser and curiouser to me. I'm sure she'll be a tenacious fighter on the campaign trail, but other than that I'm just not able to see the "brilliant!" factor in this pick.

    By Blogger -epm, at 2:19 PM  

  • Does her husband stay home with the kids? Seriously, who takes care of the kids? Five is a LOT!

    By Blogger Ptelea, at 2:30 PM  

  • EPM, the pro-life people love the fact that she decided to have her Downs syndrome child rather than abort. She played this up in her Gubernatorial campaign.

    That's whay she is getting such raves from the pro-life folks.

    ....

    ptelea, add in the fact that one of those children is developmentally disabled.

    I don't know. They're touting him as working too.

    ....

    And, broadly, I, too think this is likely a huge mistake. They're going to try to create a 67 day bubble of popularity around her. We'll see.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 2:41 PM  

  • Good question. He might. Wikipedia says he's on leave from the BP job to avoid the appearance of a conflict of interest. (I'm not sure of his position with BP where this would be required.)

    By Blogger -epm, at 2:44 PM  

  • She said in her speech that he was a "production operator."

    By Blogger zen, at 2:50 PM  

  • "Production operator." What the hell is that? Sounds like a fancy title for "pumping gas."

    By Blogger -epm, at 3:06 PM  

  • I have to admit I'm really surprised. We discussed Palin months ago and agreed that it was a super long-shot. But apparently a lot of people like her.

    Do you think Romney will keep playing attack dog now that he is out? Is he feeling snubbed?

    By Blogger Praguetwin, at 3:26 PM  

  • The scuttlebutt I read said the Romney and Pawlenty feel used by the McCain campaign.

    By Blogger -epm, at 3:41 PM  

  • A production operator is a management line/valve turner. Basically, field management for a section of a facility. So, worked his way up barely outa blue collar.

    The level of what that is depends a whole lot on the size of the project/plant, and what he's responsible for. It could vary widely.

    ......


    PragueTwin, I'm more curious how Romney feels about signing off his huge campaign personal loan. $30 million? I forget how much it was, but it was speculated that he wrote it off so he could effectively be eligible.

    The rumblings I'm hearing are that PAwlenty and Romney are a little disgruntled and feel like they were played.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 3:43 PM  

  • "A production operator is ..."

    All kidding aside, this is cool to know. Thanks for the info.

    My initial reaction was to think of the stay-at-home mom as a "domestic engineer" so I thought it was kinda funny. (BTW, my wife is just such a domestic engineer, so I'm not being condescending in any way.)

    By Blogger -epm, at 3:58 PM  

  • Palin is a really good pick. If this was a desperation pass, it was completed. Steve Schmitt knows neither Pawlenty nor Romney play well to the core Republican base, a base which must be re-invigorated if it's going to turn out.

    Palin is an extremely popular (90 approval rating) governor in the most conservative state in the union. She's likeable, folksy, a Washington outsider, easy on the eyes, and, of course, female.

    The "heartbeat away from the presidency" and "glass ceiling" serenades will be played to Hillary backers. Palin will appeal to right-leaning Independents and gives the turned-off parts of the base a reason to muster.

    By Blogger MarcLord, at 4:05 PM  

  • it give racists an easy excuse to paint themselves and pro-women.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 4:16 PM  

  • Marc, Really?

    I'm not so sure it's a "really good pick." What you're saying about the evangelicals is true, but he pretty much had them anyhow.

    She will appeal to Repubs, but is she going to reach across and draw any significant new support?

    I just don't believe her sexual equipment is enough to draw people diametrically opposed to her politics. We'll call this, "black Republican syndrome."

    And having experience thrown back on you is a pretty big risk.

    .....

    Anon, they we're already excusing themselves on experience and celebrity.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 4:22 PM  

  • But apparently a lot of people like her.

    I think a lot of people are talking themselves into liking her, because they have no other choice.

    Palin is an extremely popular (90 approval rating) governor in the most conservative state in the union.

    Actually, that's an old poll. Her current numbers are 64%, largely due to the scandal. I also don't consider Alaska the most conservative state in the Union, either. McCain currently leads there 44/39, which is almost 'swing state' territory.

    core Republican base, a base which must be re-invigorated if it's going to turn out.

    McCain has the base locked up tight - over 90%. Palin is textbook female GOP base. I actually see her turning off the base as much as she helps. How many Republicans can see her handling two simultaneous wars if McCain dies or is incapacitated while in office?
    I can't really see a VP pick doing anything serious about the lack of enthusiasm in the campaign. It's not about women. It's about an unpopular President and a candidate running on that unpopular President's policies.

    By Blogger Todd Dugdale , at 4:50 PM  

  • The experience repercussions are the wild card. where does it cost McCain, how much....?

    (If you believe the "fundies are excited" it could bring him some volunteers though, of which he has very, very few. )

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 5:45 PM  

  • todd,

    If we lived in Norway, I'd completely agree with you.

    1) Look at all the past presidents except the Nixon/Ford anomalies, and they all were more likeable. I'm aware of the scandal there, and the newer poll numbers. Is America going to get into those details? The point is, she's new and her likeability quotient is sky-high. 5 kids, hockey mom, beauty pageant winner, etc. I remember another likeable, lightweight VP pick who was controversial: Dan Quayle.

    2) As to her experience, sure it's a point analysis can attack. But you know that ten times as many people won't listen or care.

    3) The base poll is absolutely meaningless if a voter has cognitive dissonance, which many, many in the Base have over McCain. They flat-out do not trust him. I'm not saying she's going to net ten million votes for him, just that she effectively shores up his gaps.

    By Blogger MarcLord, at 5:52 PM  

  • Mike,

    yep, really. The Fundies are the most profound political force in our lifetime. If you're Steve Schmitt, wouldn't you want to excite them, even if it alienates Hillary voters? If you look at the battleground states, who offers a better organization for getting out the vote and spreading disinfo? To Rove/Schmitt, energizing the base is precisely how they won in the past.

    Palin's unabashedly, rabidly pro-life, and for a whole lot of people, that's not a bad thing. Dobson has already professed his love for her. As for the non-fundies, it's really easy to overestimate the rational qualities of the Homeland voter. Rove and Schmitt understand this very well, and the media and democrats still don't.

    By Blogger MarcLord, at 6:08 PM  

  • Marc, I think her experience does matter because it's the underpinning of McCain's entire claim to the presidency.

    And second, they can't win with the just fundies plus this year. McCain needs independents which he was getting by spreading fears about Obama's experience, but now he's basically thrown that away.

    Obviously, we disagree, but I just don't see it.

    He gets a little passion from the fundies, but I don't see her pulling many new votes. (The fundies were going to hold their noses and vote anyway.)

    Because she's completely undefined, what's going to matter most is the press coverage.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 6:21 PM  

  • If all that mattered was the fundies-plus, then Huckabee would be the nominee.

    Her lack of experience undermines McCain's entire campaign, and not just his attacks on Obama. In the future, when McCain says, "Vote for me because I have years of experience" people will immediately be confronted by his discordant VP choice. If you vote for McCain because of his experience (and did you know he was a POW forty years ago?) then Palin is a complete turn off.

    And while the GOP base is anti-abortion, even that base is somewhat divided when it comes to rape and incest. Palin holds an extreme position on this that will not play with right-leaning independents, let alone center and left-leaning independents. Same with her reported support of creationism-as-science.

    Superficially, it may seem she would appeal to the soccer mom demo. But in the specifics of political positions -- coupled with her lack of security cred -- she fails with that same demo.

    Her only politically redeming quality for a demo outside the right wing base, is her reputation as a corruption buster. But this could be rendered moot if the cloud of her own investigation results in charges. Even if it simply persists and catches the wave of repetitive media coverage, that could render any purity moot. Also, count on this alleged ethical problem making it's way into a negative political ad.

    From what little I've read, I see a pattern in her corruption busting as a means to clear the way of political "enemies" and to advance her own political ladder-climbing. Most (all?) of her accusations have been against fellow Republicans (it's Alaska after all) and the non-fundi part of the base may be put off by what they see and disloyalty to the party. Republicans don't like pushy women any more than they like uppity blacks.

    We'll have to see if her likability in the third least populated state in America translates to the broader American electorate. Right now I think it will peak in 6 days and go down from there. (And especially as the opposition starts campaigning against the McCain/Palin ticket.) On issues she just doesn't fit anywhere but the right wing of the Republican party and I just don't think the majority of Americans have an appetite for that any more. Indeed, there looking to move away form the far right.

    McCain's great fortune is that people think of him as a known quantity and they didn't need to pay attention. Casual voters were giving him a lazy pass. That just ended. Their ears will perk up and they might say "What the...!?" Palin has NONE of the qualities that got McCain his free pass.

    60+ days is a pretty short time to introduce and sell an unknown, young, wet-behind-the-ears candidate to the American public. Especially, when you've been spending the last 18 months telling them how your much more competent and experienced opponent was such a risk and a bad idea.

    By Blogger -epm, at 10:02 PM  

  • The funniest thing to me is that Bush's entire convention speech was going to be McCain uniquely qualified to be president.

    I think you've got it all in there. Her craziness in positions will come out over time. The stink of scandal over the firing will push against reformer.

    As to her likability, she has that FoxNews bunny quality about her.

    Your 60 days point is right, and I also think we're probably looking at days of all the negatives coming out.

    And, I'm probably going to stop responding in this comment thread, so move up to the the More Palin snowflakes post above.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 10:26 PM  

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