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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Tuesday, June 10, 2008

The US Iraq security deal (SOFA) appears dead for the Bush presidency.

The day after Maliki met with the Iranian leadership....
The Bush administration is conceding for the first time that the United States may not finish a complex security agreement with Iraq before President Bush leaves office.
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posted by mikevotes at 7:47 AM

5 Comments:

  • Well I think this gets back to what I was saying earlier. Essentially, BushCo and the Iraqi government have two, nearly opposite visions of Iraq and the US military. We want a subservient puppet-state and Maliki wants his own "Republican Guard" to secure his hold on power.

    By Blogger -epm, at 8:23 AM  

  • Excellent summary of the situation -epm. Of course Maliki also knows he wouldn't last a week without US protection.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 9:40 AM  

  • Very true, but I think you also have to look at the play for time. It's not only Maliki or the Iraqi power factions that have issues with this. Iran is also putting the brakes on this hard.

    My opinion is that they're stalling for the next president (Obama) who they all think they can really deal with.

    ....

    Anon, True, but even in weakness, Maliki still holds big cards. He can do stuff to destroy George Bush politically, and, so long as he stays right with Iran, he will always have a place to go and protection.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 11:14 AM  

  • My opinion is that they're stalling for the next president (Obama) who they all think they can really deal with.

    You are spot on here, IMHO.

    A gun could simply be held to Maliki's head and he could be made to sign anything, but nobody outside of the Bush Administration would fall for that. The Administration has simply made yet another of their characteristic bad estimations regarding Iraqi public opinion and politics.

    Bush has played the "you owe us" card far too many times with our allies, and he's doubtlessly playing that card with Maliki. For his part, Maliki can stall anything and pretend his hands are tied. And they really are tied in this case.

    By Blogger Todd Dugdale , at 4:58 PM  

  • Yeah, they really are tied. I don't think there's a single major group in Iraq that supports the SoFA as it's being discussed now.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 5:42 PM  

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