Maliki not in on the new coalition?

The Hadley memo, presumably reflective of current US policy, proposed recrafting the Iraqi governing coalition away from Shia sectarian lines by trying to include one major "moderate" Sunni party with the intention of cutting Sadr out of Maliki's ruling block.

But here's what's really weird. Maliki's own party, Dawa, and its leader Allawi, are skeptical and not participating.

Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki and his Shiite party, Islamic Dawa, are hesitant about signing on to the coalition. Dawa members say they are concerned that rival Shiite parties are trying to oust Mr. Maliki. They also suspect the Sunni Arabs’ real goal is to erode Shiite power.

“I think it’s a leap into the unknown,” said Sami al-Askari, a Shiite legislator who advises Mr. Maliki. “The negative things are clear, but no one can explain exactly what the positive things are.”

So, I guess the questions are, does Maliki have enough power to scrub this effort? What are the prospects if he doesn't sign on? Will Maliki turn Mahdi loose to torpedo this deal? If it does break down, will there be any credibility in the next cross sectarian proposal?

And, will Maliki, in fact, be ousted by SCIRI?

The Bush administration is taking gambles right now, and the downside is pretty big.