Iraq's Inertia - Truth no longer matters
Will a new Iraqi "unity government" put an end to the civil war? I don't think so.
Much like a gang war we've reached a situation where the foot soldiers, the on-the-ground militias and partisans in this case, are all calling for revenge, for blood, for war. Their nominal political leaders now find themselves in the position that if were to disavow the revenge killings and other violence, they would no longer be recognized as leaders. The foot soldiers now want war, and it would be a follish leader who would stand in their way.
This is one thing that Sadr has done very well. By straddling the fence between militia violence and political settlement, he has positioned himself to gain influence whether Iraq chooses violence or peace.
The leadership figures, both religious and political, have all had to build their organizations in a relatively short period of time. Certainly in the case of the Shia and the Kurds, there were existing political/religious structures and allegiances before the war, but that is a very different thing from the current working political/military organizations. The people put in various positions down the organizational tree are new to the organization and their roles, and their loyalties and operational command are far from cemented.
So, within these relatively weak structures, when "the street" calls for war, it would be a foolish leader to attempt to stand against it. In order to maintain power over their faction, the leaders of Iraq may have to accept the will of their soldiers and go to war no matter the lip service they may pay to a unity government. This seems to be the current inertia of Iraq.
Also, after the clash at the mosque last night where Iraqis claim US soldiers entered the mosque and killed civilians, a charge the US denies, saying it was Iraqi forces, I have come to the conclusion that the truth no longer matters in Iraq. The line has been crossed.
Iraqis no longer care who is killing their brothers and sons; they no longer care whether US or Iraqi forces conducted the raid. In their defense and desire for vengeance, the various groups have now turned inward, setting up their own checkpoints, managing their own security, conducting their own raids, executing those they see as enemies. In short, carrying out a civil war.
The opinions of the factions appear to have been further hardened by the recent violence. For years, the Sunnis have been conducting operations against the US and Iraqi government forces, but with the bombing of the Askariyah Shrine a month ago, the Shia seem to have fully entered the fray.
The truth of who conducted the raid last night no longer matters. That violence will be met with violence, and no matter what the news is, that is civil war.
(Sorry that I've been doing more editorializing and less article links than usual in the last few days, but that's because I don't think the stories are really capturing the true state of play in Iraq.)
Much like a gang war we've reached a situation where the foot soldiers, the on-the-ground militias and partisans in this case, are all calling for revenge, for blood, for war. Their nominal political leaders now find themselves in the position that if were to disavow the revenge killings and other violence, they would no longer be recognized as leaders. The foot soldiers now want war, and it would be a follish leader who would stand in their way.
This is one thing that Sadr has done very well. By straddling the fence between militia violence and political settlement, he has positioned himself to gain influence whether Iraq chooses violence or peace.
The leadership figures, both religious and political, have all had to build their organizations in a relatively short period of time. Certainly in the case of the Shia and the Kurds, there were existing political/religious structures and allegiances before the war, but that is a very different thing from the current working political/military organizations. The people put in various positions down the organizational tree are new to the organization and their roles, and their loyalties and operational command are far from cemented.
So, within these relatively weak structures, when "the street" calls for war, it would be a foolish leader to attempt to stand against it. In order to maintain power over their faction, the leaders of Iraq may have to accept the will of their soldiers and go to war no matter the lip service they may pay to a unity government. This seems to be the current inertia of Iraq.
Also, after the clash at the mosque last night where Iraqis claim US soldiers entered the mosque and killed civilians, a charge the US denies, saying it was Iraqi forces, I have come to the conclusion that the truth no longer matters in Iraq. The line has been crossed.
Iraqis no longer care who is killing their brothers and sons; they no longer care whether US or Iraqi forces conducted the raid. In their defense and desire for vengeance, the various groups have now turned inward, setting up their own checkpoints, managing their own security, conducting their own raids, executing those they see as enemies. In short, carrying out a civil war.
The opinions of the factions appear to have been further hardened by the recent violence. For years, the Sunnis have been conducting operations against the US and Iraqi government forces, but with the bombing of the Askariyah Shrine a month ago, the Shia seem to have fully entered the fray.
The truth of who conducted the raid last night no longer matters. That violence will be met with violence, and no matter what the news is, that is civil war.
(Sorry that I've been doing more editorializing and less article links than usual in the last few days, but that's because I don't think the stories are really capturing the true state of play in Iraq.)
posted by mikevotes at
7:51 AM
2 Comments:
Interestingly, the attack on al Sadr and this attack, which was on his militia forces, significantly increases the problems in Iraq. Al Sadr alone, can double the size of the insurgency if he chooses to fight against the U.S.
By
Greyhair, at 2:31 PM
I agree that the US attack increases the complexity of Iraq.
Ovr the last month, the main change has been the activation of the SHia militias as a fighting force.
And, I really think Sadr has played this better than anyone else, by having an active militia, he has alot more cards to play on the political front. And you're right, the more violence that is diected towards the Shia, the more powerful he gets.
Mike
By
mikevotes, at 5:10 PM
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