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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Saturday, March 25, 2006

Reporting the "Good News" in Iraq

President Bush told reporters, after criticizing them, to go out and look at the progress in Iraq. The examples he offered were the hopeful signs in Tal Afar, and the schools. They always emphasize the schools. Well, it seems a couple of reporters did just that, and they didn't come back with "good news."

First, on the administration's recent contention that Tal Afar has been a success story, a Reuters reporter actually went to Tal Afar and talked with the residents.

Short answer, not so much. The Al Qaeda elements have indeed been driven out, but there are still killings, seemingly arbitrary arrests, random mortar attacks and gunfire, and one resident referred to it as a "ghost town" as so many legitimate civilians have been driven out by the cycle of violence.

Second, an AP reporter decided to do a story on the schools in Baghdad, as recommended by the war proponents. What she found is that the violence that is taking place all over Iraq is affecting the schools as well, mortar attacks, kidnappings, assassinations, hundreds dead, and 400+ schools closed because of violence and attacks. The article is aptly titled, Schools Also on the Front Lines in Iraq.

And, as for that whole dispute about the application of the term "civil war," the Iraqis themselves seem to be using that phrase more and more, and really, whether the Iraqis think it's a civil war is really all that matters towards the outcome.

The battle between Sunni and Shia Muslims for control of Baghdad has already started, say Iraqi political leaders who predict fierce street fighting will break out as each community takes over districts in which it is strongest.

"The fighting will only stop when a new balance of power has emerged," Fuad Hussein, the chief of staff of Massoud Barzani, the Kurdish leader, said. "Sunni and Shia will each take control of their own area." He said sectarian cleansing had already begun.

This article in the Independent by Patrick Cockburn presents a very different view of the current "state of play" in regards to Iraq's civil war than we've been getting here. If it's accurate, which I think it is, the seams are about to burst into open street fighting and a factionalized use of army units.

2 Comments:

  • "whether the Iraqis think it's a civil war is really all that matters towards the outcome"

    Bingo, that is when they turn to the militias for protection and strongmen make their will the law. Zeyad's had some entries along that line. And Sistani has mobilized his militia.

    Ball game.

    By Blogger Bravo 2-1, at 6:37 PM  

  • That's what I'm thinking. And, really, I don't think it matters all too much what the politicians think either.

    Amidst all this chaos, I think that the politicians have a limited ability to mitigate the growing momentum. A few of them seem to have a real ability to influence, Sadr being an example, because they have people on the ground in the form of militias. But much like street gangs, eventually people lower down in the organizations call for the war, and the leaders are faced with the choice to embrace it, or lose their position.

    The only thing that will decide the fate of Iraq is "the street."

    Mike

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 8:30 PM  

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