The Republican death or a 2010 rally?
Two articles. The first is this much linked Time Magazine piece describing the GOP's "death spiral," more conservative pushes more moderates away giving "conservatives" still more influence.... coupled with the shifting demographics.
On the other hand, CQ asks whether, in a non-Obama turnout year, many of the new Dem Congresspeople can hold their seats if the Obama turnout, black, young, doesn't show up at the same rates.
On the other hand, CQ asks whether, in a non-Obama turnout year, many of the new Dem Congresspeople can hold their seats if the Obama turnout, black, young, doesn't show up at the same rates.
posted by mikevotes at
10:44 AM
3 Comments:
The Time article is pretty good.
I thought this excerpt was very insightful:
"Republicans actually have plenty of ideas.
That's the problem. The party's ideas — about economic issues, social issues and just about everything else — are not popular ideas. They are extremely conservative ideas tarred by association with the extremely unpopular George W. Bush, who helped downsize the party to its extremely conservative base."
The end result is that they will find themselves mostly unable to capitalise on potential failures by the Obama Administration, which is the Party's best path back to relevance.
The other problem, which is deeper, is that the Party has actively driven potential supporters away with their attitudes.
Consider two anecdotal examples from my co-workers. One is a Muslim; anti-abortion, anti-gay, very "moral" and intolerant on moral issues. He would be a "natural" for the GOP, but Republicans have spent years casting his faith as something demonic and his loyalties as suspect. One Party nominates and elects the first Muslim Congressman, while another asks that Congressman to "prove" he isn't working with "the enemy".
Another is a Hindu, who leaned Republican until the whole "Hindu prayer in the Senate" thing broke. He was deeply shocked at the reaction by Republicans. "It was like we are supposed to feel ashamed of our religion", he told me. He immediately aligned with the Democrats, as did the vast majority of his congregation.
Now, the Muslim-American and Hindu-American shares of the electorate may be 'small potatoes', but this same effect is being felt among the AA and Hispanic populations, as well as women, and other ethnic minorities. It's not that they believe all Republicans are vicious, ignorant bigots. It's that nobody within the Party ever seems to take these bigots to task. And the arrogance of the average evangelical is legendary in its cluelessness, offending equally regardless of race or class.
Ignorance is one thing, and people can generally overlook it. Vicious ignorance, however, is offensive and leaves a deep impression that is not easily overcome with a "rebranding" effort.
wrt the CQ article, I expect that you saw JTP has renounced the Republican Party. How many of that base will not show up out of disgust? Once you set the "not conservative enough" purity drive in motion, it often backfires. The major difference in 2010 is that at least Obama's base has been registered and mobilised before. We can pretty much be assured that the Republicans will run scary candidates that will mobilise the Democratic base reasonably well, IMHO.
By
Todd Dugdale , at 3:14 PM
Just letting you know I read this. Will respond in an hour or so.
By
mikevotes, at 4:07 PM
I thought the Time article had alot in it, too, although it was far more committed to the absoluteness than I would be.
To your demographic point, they don't necessarily have to win demographics, just close the gap so that they're not hurt by them, like George Bush and Hispanics. He didn't win them, but he closed the gap enough they didn't hurt him as much.
On the other hand, it's not that they "haven't been talking to these groups," it's that they've been actively demonizing them so it's not just a snap to pick up 10 points.
As for Joe, yeah, I saw that. I think that's the biggest mistake of his life. Right now he's making money running the underground Repub circuit. The Perot folks and Republican rejects don't pay the same.
By
mikevotes, at 5:15 PM
Post a Comment
<< Home