Swine flu
I'm not really posting on the swine flu because there's really not that much new that I can add.
The only two points I would really want to emphasize are that 1) The virus is probably far less virulent than the Mexico statistics indicate at this point. The ratio of deaths to cases is probably overinflated because, especially with something like flu, (especially in a second world country,) there are significant numbers of more minor cases that never made it to detection. Also, early in an outbreak there's a tendency to overattribute deaths before testing is fully done. So, it's very likely not killing at anything near the ratio that is being reported.
2) This thing's already out of the bag. The US has the top preparedness and experts in the world, they parachute into every outbreak anywhere in the world, and notice that none of them are really preaching containment practices or quarantine/isolation at this point. They're preaching spread prevention.
(In the US, there are connective cases we're not seeing, and although there are no reported cases, you've gotta figure it's probably also in Central/South America, but still not detected,)
So my contribution is that it's already in the populations, probably further than we know, but it's also probably far, far less deadly than is being presented.
PS. In ill defined, unfolding threats, there is always a market for fear. Be aware that the news folks cater to that market. (Could going to school kill your kids? Tune in at 11....)
The only two points I would really want to emphasize are that 1) The virus is probably far less virulent than the Mexico statistics indicate at this point. The ratio of deaths to cases is probably overinflated because, especially with something like flu, (especially in a second world country,) there are significant numbers of more minor cases that never made it to detection. Also, early in an outbreak there's a tendency to overattribute deaths before testing is fully done. So, it's very likely not killing at anything near the ratio that is being reported.
2) This thing's already out of the bag. The US has the top preparedness and experts in the world, they parachute into every outbreak anywhere in the world, and notice that none of them are really preaching containment practices or quarantine/isolation at this point. They're preaching spread prevention.
(In the US, there are connective cases we're not seeing, and although there are no reported cases, you've gotta figure it's probably also in Central/South America, but still not detected,)
So my contribution is that it's already in the populations, probably further than we know, but it's also probably far, far less deadly than is being presented.
PS. In ill defined, unfolding threats, there is always a market for fear. Be aware that the news folks cater to that market. (Could going to school kill your kids? Tune in at 11....)
posted by mikevotes at
6:42 AM
4 Comments:
Good summary. We also don't know the demographics of those who died. Were they very young? Very old? Were they already in poor health to begin with?
And you're right, of course, about the media. They really are useless, bordering on dangerous... If you're interested in straight news, you might as well turn off the TV.
By
-epm, at 7:35 AM
The first reports were fatalities among adults 24-40, although I don't know if that's been borne out.
By
mikevotes, at 8:49 AM
I didn't know about the age stats. As you can see, I'm woefully disconnected from the latest "the end is near!" reporting on this subject.
By
-epm, at 10:21 AM
Again, that was off early reporting. I haven't seen anything since.
By
mikevotes, at 10:28 AM
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