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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Monday, November 10, 2008

Quote - Ohio

In the battleground state of Ohio, where Mr. Kerry lost the presidency to George W. Bush, the 2.74 million votes he received almost precisely matched Mr. Obama’s 2008 total. Mr. Obama won because John McCain received 300,000 fewer votes than Mr. Bush did.

That points to a cautionary reminder for Mr. Obama and his team: the election turned partly on what they did right, but also on what Republicans did wrong....


  • I have no doubt Obama and his team are keenly aware of the political realities they face and that they live in. I'm also fairly certain much of the GOP continues to be in denial and to believe their own propaganda.

    Certainly a large number of the rank and file Repubs also live in an echo chamber "reality" of right wing media outlets (FoxNews, Rush, etc.). It will be up to President Obama -- and the congressional Dems -- to demonstrate the lie of these outlets. It's only then that we'll see a firming up of the shift away from fake patriotism, fake conservatism, and the unholy demagoguery of rational intelligence.

    But, never count the Dems out from screwing this up. Especially the Senators...

    By Blogger -epm, at 7:55 AM  

  • What I take away from this is that the Republican base is either smaller or is not interested in voting. Ohio is likely to remain an intractable battleground in 2012. But McCain lost an average of five points compared to Bush in the Deep South, and the West is wide open.

    It's only then that we'll see a firming up of the shift away from fake patriotism, fake conservatism, and the unholy demagoguery of rational intelligence.

    There's not much that can be done to counter the echo chamber, IMHO. It doesn't rely on facts.
    However, when the approach you describe ceases to be effective, it will end on its own.

    By Blogger Todd Dugdale, at 8:47 AM  

  • Look, the echo chamber (FoxNews, et al) exists because it makes money. There's that old quip, "Who are you going to believe? Me or your lying eyes." It's my hope that Obama's administration (and congressional Dems) make it harder and harder for echo-listener to, in effect, deny their lying eyes and ears.

    When profits drop, when audiences drop, when ad space/time is harder and harder to sell... Only then will we see a shrinkage in the echo chamber media. And didn't I read that FoxNews -- or NewsCorp -- had some pretty bad financials this past quarter... Hmm...

    By Blogger -epm, at 9:15 AM  

  • I put this up because it kind of echoes the "high water theory" of the election I hold that I've been trying to put into these discussions in comments. Yes, I think there has been some realignment, but I also think it's a bit naive to think that this marks a complete Dem shift forever.

    However, that being said, what this quote tends to frame, I think wrongly, is that it isn't exactly the same party distribution as it was in 2004. Some of those Repubs who "stayed home" didn't really stay home, but were part of the Dem registration/party switch surge.

    But the bottom line is that Ohio's not blue forever. Those who switched over could switch back.

    (It's like someone told me long ago, if you steal someone's girlfriend, don't be surprised if she's stolen away from you.)



    That's a big order considering that those you're trying to permanently pull away are watching FoxNews. They're sympathetic to that world view. However, also have to say, they are now "available" to Dems.


    Todd, I think that's the real question in these numbers, how much is real, how much is this election, and how much is staying home, because the electorate and party ID are different in 2008 vs. 2004.

    Going forward, I think the two most important points are that the Dems now have the ability to set the national agenda (and you gotta figure that by 2012 the economy swings back,) and that the 2012 election will be largely defined by the opinion of how Obama and the Dems are doing their jobs.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 10:21 AM  

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