Not in the mood.
We can talk about Ayers and Keating and whoever else today, (The Obama campaign launches a Keating website. The McCain camp starts talking about Rashid Khalidi who has featured in so many of those viral emails,) but right now, today and this week, money is all that matters.
Full of doubts and fears, reading about falling markets around the world, people are afraid about their economy, about their futures, and we're getting some signs that those individual fears are bridging into the irrational.
The NYTimes has a mostly anecdotal this morning discussing rapid declines in consumer spending that really lays out where we are in the consumer psyche.
We can talk about Ayers and Keating or whatever, but it's my opinion that we're crossing over from economic worry to economic fear, and that's going to be a more powerful actor this week than anything else.
Full of doubts and fears, reading about falling markets around the world, people are afraid about their economy, about their futures, and we're getting some signs that those individual fears are bridging into the irrational.
The NYTimes has a mostly anecdotal this morning discussing rapid declines in consumer spending that really lays out where we are in the consumer psyche.
We can talk about Ayers and Keating or whatever, but it's my opinion that we're crossing over from economic worry to economic fear, and that's going to be a more powerful actor this week than anything else.
posted by mikevotes at
6:28 AM
7 Comments:
As a campaign strategy, Keating-McCain is relevant to current events. Ayers is not.
This talk of a collapse in consumer confidence -- from exuberance, to worry to fear -- should come as a surprise to no one. My dad and I have been discussing the consumer-debt based economy for some time. If it wasn't the sub-prime/housing it would have been credit cards. Whatever prosperity we had, it was largely built on consumers overextending themselves.
Which brings the question; when will the US Treasury collapse under the same debt burden?
Just some passing thoughts.
By
-epm, at 7:01 AM
I understand the argument about Keating and Ayers and whoever, but honestly, I really don't think that's going to matter.
I really think the attacks risk finding themselves off tone.
As for the consumer driven economy, I'm going to leave that aside. That's a much longer discussion.
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mikevotes, at 7:13 AM
I know that a lot of partisans on the blogosphere strongly feel that Obama should go on the attack, but I don't think that should include smears.
There is a rich vein to be mined on McCain's policy contradictions, his erratic and combustible temperament, his embrace of Bush and neo-con views, etc. Things like that should be the grounds for attack.
I am hearing more and more about undecided voters who like Obama, but don't feel comfortable voting for him because of the smears. While the smears turn off a lot of voters, anyone who is undecided at this point is not an "issues" voter; they are a "gut" voter. Smears do matter to these people, unfortunately. I don't think they can be swayed to McCain by them, but if they stay home they are one vote less for Obama.
In a very real sense, McCain has become little more than the "anti-Obama" rather than standing on his own. I recall seeing polling (Rasmussen?) indicating that around 20% of McCain's "support" consists of people who don't really like him, but really dislike Obama. Consider that the rest is just the Republican base, who will vote for Republican candidate out of duty.
"The economy" is powerful as an issue, but Obama has to avoid the perception that everything will be right and prosperous if he wins. The truth is that it will be bad for some time, but that McCain would only make it worse.
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Todd Dugdale , at 8:42 AM
To me it shows a sense of desperation. I hate to say it but world financial markets are making fools of us all.
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Anonymous, at 9:25 AM
Todd, broadly agreed. Don't fight the last (2004) war. This is a very different fighting terrain. I like the idea of doing the Keating attack "underground viral," but the higher the profile the bigger the risk.
Anti-Obama was the McCain strategy coming out of the summer and that very first round of attacks (celebrity, etc.) That's one of the reasons McCain got pounded over the suspension thing, suddenly the campaign became about his poor judgment.
On the economy, I think he needs it phrased "this is the hole they put us in...."
....
Anon, The attacks are desperation. They already tried Ayers in the late summer and got nothing, so shouting it louder isn't the best bet.
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mikevotes, at 10:05 AM
Mike wrote:
"On the economy, I think he needs it phrased "this is the hole they put us in....""
Yeah. And part of that narrative is McCain's role in the S&L/Keating 5 scandal. That's all I'm saying. It pertinent to the discussion on the economy and the governance/regulation of institutions. Ayers, Wright, etc. is just dissonance.
One problem for McCain in going negative is that they make no pretense of moral high ground. The campaign readily admits it's just going full bore mudfest. They've lost the "honor" claim. They've lost the "straight talk" claim. They're losing the "maverick" claim.
The other problem for McCain going all swift-boaty, is that there are two more "debates." Two more live, side-by-side, opportunities for Obama to directly confront McCain before an audience. Two more opportunities for voters to say "Hey, McCain's been lying to me about that Barack guy. He seems OK to me..."
But, when the public ain't buyin' what you're sellin' all you have left is to piss on the competition and hope they hate them too.
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-epm, at 11:09 AM
Yeah, that's how they're trying to frame the Keating stuff. The can't cleanly tie this mess on him, so they're trying to associate him with it by revisiting Keating.
And as I wrote this weekend, the timing of all these attacks are tough for McCain because they have to work around the debates and the financial news, but really can't afford to wait even one more day to start (supposedly) making up ground.
As for the negatives, the narrative is that the Dems are "hitting back" which is a big thing.
By
mikevotes, at 1:27 PM
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