"State of the race"
Two "state of the race" pieces from the NYTimes and WaPo.
(The NYTimes version is very good, laying out the map, the spending, strategy, and some of Obama's state specific issue targeting.)
(The NYTimes version is very good, laying out the map, the spending, strategy, and some of Obama's state specific issue targeting.)
posted by mikevotes at
7:58 AM
9 Comments:
While the NYT article lays out the formidable challenge McCain faces, it also bolsters the media narrative that the race is still close. McCain is ostensibly campaigning "vigorously" is states (MN, WI, PA) in which he is behind by double-digits in honest polling.
As Obama's lead solidifies, we are going to be seeing a stronger "dichotomy of reality" between Republicans and the rest of the world, and the media is caught in the middle of it. I've mentioned before that the Republican base lives in an artificial bubble world in which they are insulated from views and facts that run counter to the reality portrayed by FNC and talk radio.
The Republican narrative now is that Palin's visit to CA will turn it into a swing state and force Obama to expend his resources defending it. It also maintains that the new effort of recycling Wright/Ayers/Rezko will produce a ten-point turn in McCain's favour - and since they believe that Obama only leads by 5 points, this will supposedly win the election. The passage of the "bailout bill" will also ostensibly mean great things for McCain, now that the economy is "straightened out" and people aren't afraid.
Combined with dishonest manipulation of polling figures, the GOP has created a completely delusional scenario in which a McCain win is not only possible, but inevitable. And the media is now put in the situation of accepting this false reality or of presenting the world in which most of us live and thus proving their "liberal bias" to the Republican base.
It is nothing more or less than a cultural war with the media. The McCain campaign is, in effect, demanding that the media narrative conform to the Republican bubble world or else the media will forfeit credibility among the Republican base. That ship has sailed, IMO, but the media just might be intimidated into such a capitulation.
By
Todd Dugdale , at 11:46 AM
Cultural war is right todd. Not jocks versus nerds exactly but something along those lines.
By
Anonymous, at 11:55 AM
anonymous wrote:
Not jocks versus nerds exactly but something along those lines.
I would say "believers vs. heretics".
The allegiance demanded by the GOP from their base has been remarkably similar to a religion since 2002.
Any dissent is squelched. The leadership is infallible. Setbacks are merely "tests" that distinguish between "real" Republicans and RINOs. Evidence of "magical thinking" abounds. You are either "all in" or "all out".
Those that fail to accept the alternate reality completely and unquestioningly are, at best, "deluded by the liberal media", and at worst actively trying to destroy the nation. In either case, there is no sympathy granted by The Faithful.
By
Todd Dugdale , at 12:15 PM
It's interesting to me how anti-intellectual they are. That line of thinking would have us back living in caves.
By
Anonymous, at 12:25 PM
anonymous wrote:
It's interesting to me how anti-intellectual they are.
Yes, that was a large part of the putative "genius" of Karl Rove in 2000.
You split off the intellectuals from the rest of the country by portraying them as out-of-touch with "common sense", and as "looking down" on the uneducated masses. You provide less-educated people with talking points filled with distorted facts, which they can then rattle off and sound intelligent. You reduce complex issues into compact and highly-simplistic phrases, which those educated people "just don't get". And you allow these uneducated people to "participate" in the national debate by patting them on the head for parroting those talking points (i.e. "mega-dittoes").
It is truly genius (albeit perverse genius) in the way that it capitalises on the less-educated people's feeling that their voice has been ignored and that the media has made them feel stupid and left out of the national debate.
This anti-intellectualism is the fundamental basis of talk radio, and is crucial to the ability of the GOP to maintain their artificial reality.
The downside is that it hampers the ability of the GOP to go into any kind of complex explanations of why the Democrats are wrong. Everything must be kept dead-simple: jingoism, Little Guy vs. the Big Guy, Love It or Leave It, black vs. white, etc.
All of which is perfectly adaptable to the "religious" aspect of their dogma.
By
Todd Dugdale , at 1:12 PM
I guess you guys don't need me to have fun.
Todd, I don't quite hold to your certainty in that first comment. Yes, I thionk Obama is firmly up in those states, but I'd personally put the lead a little lower than double digits. I saw the poll this morning for Minn, but one poll and all that. I think Pa. is probably 10.
As to the braoder point, thus far, it doesn't feel like the media is playing along so far. (I personally believe that many in the media recognize that they were the Swiftboaters, their participation and the credibility they granted, and I think they're very circumspect about taking up that role again.)
....
As to right wing radio and the schism. Long ago (Clinton administration) I came to the idea that the main role of right wing radio was to create ideological "brown shirts." The job was to create a large, brutish group to effectively "stand around the water cooler" and overpower anyone on the other side. The common touchpoint of Limbaugh, for instance, guaranteed that when the thick necked guy made some ridiculous assertion, there were a number of others who would second with virtually the same language.
Your phrase, talking points for the masses or whatever it was, is right on.
(Sorry for the Hitler reference. Not saying they're Hitler, but it's a well known reference point for a fascist thuggish street movement.)
By
mikevotes, at 2:32 PM
Mike wrote:
Todd, I don't quite hold to your certainty in that first comment. Yes, I think Obama is firmly up in those states, but I'd personally put the lead a little lower than double digits.
Fair enough. Quinnipiac only has WI at O +7 (Strat. Vision has O +9), but I still stand by the CNN poll of O +12 in MN, and Quinnipiac's O +15 in PA.
By that standard, WV, MT, and even AZ are states in which Obama is competitive. At this late stage, any state over +5 in honest polling is a lost cause, IMHO.
But honest men can disagree.
Long ago (Clinton administration) I came to the idea that the main role of right wing radio was to create ideological "brown shirts." The job was to create a large, brutish group to effectively "stand around the water cooler" and overpower anyone on the other side.
I had never considered that, but I think you are right. As someone who worked in machine shops for the past decade, I can testify that this "intimidation" was the effect, intended or not.
I personally believe that many in the media recognize that they were the Swiftboaters, their participation and the credibility they granted, and I think they're very circumspect about taking up that role again
I agree completely. My point was only that this was the strategy, not that it would be effective.
I guess you guys don't need me to have fun.
It's never fun unless you weigh in.
By
Todd Dugdale , at 3:02 PM
Again, I think those states are very firm, and I think arguing whether our candidate's ahead by 8 or 12 is a pretty nice problem to have.
Frankly, I think you're generally tighter on the data and I'm generally more hesitant in accepting the swings.
Doesn't really matter, you know?
To add to your numbers, there's a Columbus Morning Dispatch today (local) Obama +7 in Ohio.
....
As for brownshirts. Same deal, I used to sell into Industrial plants down here, working the machine shops and maintenance areas, and that's where I had the observation.
By
mikevotes, at 3:17 PM
Heres teh Ohio poll
http://www.dispatchpolitics.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2008/10/05/copy/POLL05.ART_ART_10-05-08_A1_CLBG3US.html?adsec=politics&sid=101
By
mikevotes, at 3:17 PM
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