OMG!!! McCain is going negative!!!!! (The last Obama fret?)
Of course they're going negative. What did you think was going to happen?
The real trick is in managing the timing and the tone of the effort.They have to make sure they're clear of the bailout bill, and work around the debates. (Don't want your candidate getting blasted at a debate over negativity.) On the other hand, every day they wait is a day that voter opinion concrete-izes.
The WaPo 's "OMG!!! They're going negative" piece suggests that they're going to wait until after Tuesday's debate to launch.
Coupled with this bit from the AFP, the strategy seems to lay itself out.
It seems the clear plan is to let the bailout/economic news wend itself out over the weekend, and then try to "relaunch the campaign" starting with Tuesday night's debate. (The format for the Tuesday debate is a "townhall" format with preselected questions from the audience where the McCain campaign feels their candidate does the best.)
That's alot of pressure on one debate, and if the media catches on to this "big debate" theory, the expectations could work as much against them as for them. It sets up very high expectations for McCain in a format where lots of negative (even if it's framed as "contrast") traditionally doesn't poll very well. (Look at the feedback polls on the first two debates. Attacks polled negatively among undecideds and those in the middle.)
McCain's task is to change the entire narrative in one debate.
Alas, it's one more gamble......
Also, just as a general response to a switch to strong negative. I think they have to be a little careful. With people so worried about jobs and the economy, a jolting switch to negative might well come off as "off tone," you know?
But at the same time, they're running out of space, so they have to get there as quickly as they can.
The questions are, "how does the media cover the negative? Do they cover it as literal or do they frame it as the tactic of a losing and desperate campaign?," "In a time of economic crisis, how do Americans perceive the negative?," and, "How solid is the trend towards Obama?"
We'll have to wait and see. This is pretty much the last swing of the bat, and the McCain camp is pretty far behind.
(PS. ....because the bad economic news is over?)
(I spent way too much time on this post, and I still don't think it's very good. I may rewrite it this afternoon.)
The real trick is in managing the timing and the tone of the effort.They have to make sure they're clear of the bailout bill, and work around the debates. (Don't want your candidate getting blasted at a debate over negativity.) On the other hand, every day they wait is a day that voter opinion concrete-izes.
The WaPo 's "OMG!!! They're going negative" piece suggests that they're going to wait until after Tuesday's debate to launch.
Coupled with this bit from the AFP, the strategy seems to lay itself out.
And with more bad news on the economic front, McCain was to retreat to his Arizona ranch for the weekend, in a highly unusual disappearing act at the height of the campaign.
It seems the clear plan is to let the bailout/economic news wend itself out over the weekend, and then try to "relaunch the campaign" starting with Tuesday night's debate. (The format for the Tuesday debate is a "townhall" format with preselected questions from the audience where the McCain campaign feels their candidate does the best.)
That's alot of pressure on one debate, and if the media catches on to this "big debate" theory, the expectations could work as much against them as for them. It sets up very high expectations for McCain in a format where lots of negative (even if it's framed as "contrast") traditionally doesn't poll very well. (Look at the feedback polls on the first two debates. Attacks polled negatively among undecideds and those in the middle.)
McCain's task is to change the entire narrative in one debate.
Alas, it's one more gamble......
Also, just as a general response to a switch to strong negative. I think they have to be a little careful. With people so worried about jobs and the economy, a jolting switch to negative might well come off as "off tone," you know?
But at the same time, they're running out of space, so they have to get there as quickly as they can.
The questions are, "how does the media cover the negative? Do they cover it as literal or do they frame it as the tactic of a losing and desperate campaign?," "In a time of economic crisis, how do Americans perceive the negative?," and, "How solid is the trend towards Obama?"
We'll have to wait and see. This is pretty much the last swing of the bat, and the McCain camp is pretty far behind.
(PS. ....because the bad economic news is over?)
(I spent way too much time on this post, and I still don't think it's very good. I may rewrite it this afternoon.)
posted by mikevotes at
6:11 AM
6 Comments:
They have to do something, and I expect it might be something really radical. Palin stepping down, McCain stepping out, starting a war, they're all on the table. I cannot imagine them going quietly.
By
MarcLord, at 2:16 PM
I don't think it's Palin stepping down because that would be an admission of failure of judgment too close to the election.
I don't see a war, because the current president doesn't want to take the hit.
I get what you're saying.
Question. Would the media accept the next "stunt" as real, or would they present it the way they did the campaign "suspension?"
By
mikevotes, at 2:27 PM
The media seem to be doing a better job at fact checking. No more Straight Talk Express, no more free pass.
By
-epm, at 5:35 PM
Mike I agree about Palin bowing out or the war, but as it is now, they're toast. The "October Surprise" stunt is now phraseology, with the shock effect having worn off. Possibly a November surprise, maybe, with a 10-fold worse PHLE (Pearl harbor like event) to suspend the election itself. Under the current powers, that would be "legal."
Or, maybe follow the Color Revolutions strategy after losing a vote--taking over buildings, demanding recounts, and resorts to violence. Not that I think these would work, but they've got to be thinking about overturning the chessboard. Meanwhile, the Base has not lost its potency nor found its mind.
By
MarcLord, at 5:49 PM
EPM, Again, it's all about how the media treats in. The reason the Swiftboaters worked was because the media granted them credibility.
They may have burned all of their credibility in the earluier round of attacks when the media chastised them. And, the two "gambits" didn't help either.
Have to wait and see. The McCain camps job is to lure the media in.
....
Marc, the thing to me is the recounts, and alleged voting machine fixing and all that works on a smaller scale, but not if you're way down. It's just too much. You can push one state or a point or two, but not more.
By
mikevotes, at 6:25 PM
Mike... Agreed. Exactly.
By
-epm, at 7:33 PM
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