McCain is laying it all on Minnesota?
I don't know, but with Minnesota close, here's a funfact.
And here's the useful source post on which that claim rests which looks at geographic campaign spending more broadly. (Well worth a read.)
I'd be really curious to know the Obama fundraising status.
Overall, in the week ended 9/30, Obama spent about 2.5x as much as John McCain on advertising..... But in Minnesota, McCain outadvertised Obama better than 3:1. In fact, Minnesota was the only state in the entire country where McCain out-advertised Obama.
And here's the useful source post on which that claim rests which looks at geographic campaign spending more broadly. (Well worth a read.)
I'd be really curious to know the Obama fundraising status.
posted by mikevotes at
10:30 PM
6 Comments:
...and here it comes.
I can't help but to think that there is going to be one more shift of momentum going into the election and in the end, the gap will be quite tight.
By
Praguetwin, at 12:52 AM
Desperate men do desperate things. Look to see a hail storm of anti-Obama ads. New bars of filth will be set, mark my words. Will the corporate media call foul? Or will they continue to equate nukes to slingshots in the name of "balance?"
It's going to get real ugly. There is nothing, and I mean NOTHING, McCain and the GOP won't do or say to try to win this election.
By
-epm, at 1:08 AM
Praguetwin, they're certainly going to try, but the difference is, you're getting into the realm where people are starting to really decide, so flipping them is much harder than it was in August.
The mid information, low information voters kinda know Obama after the convention, debate, and all the attendant water cooler talk, so, whereas it was about defining Obama in August, now it's about redefining him which is a little harder.
That said, yeah, I would expect some pullback from Obama's gains somewhere over the next month, but a campaign perceived to be losing has less credibility when it attacks.
6,7,9 points, wherever we are, is a ton to make up/lose in the last month.
...
EPM, Yeah, and.....?
Im not sure the media really buys. Their opinion of McCain's credibility was shot in August.
I'll be a battle for narrative.
By
mikevotes, at 6:09 AM
Minnesota is not close.
CNN just polled MN O +12 this week.
Rasmussen polled us O +8 two weeks ago.
The polling that does show McCain doing well (M +1) in MN has very odd internals, such as 65+ breaking for Obama by double digits, but 35-49 strongly for McCain.
I've seen a flurry of Republican internal polling in the state showing McCain ahead by 1 or 2 points, but these polls sample the rural areas at 60% or more.
The Twin Cities metro is 60% of the state's population, and it is solid blue, so getting 60% of your polling sample from outside of the metro is ridiculous.
Also, if McCain was doing so well here, the Senate race would be going for the Republican Norm Coleman. It isn't. He's currently behind by nine points to Franken.
If this is supposed to be some kind of "momentum shift", it is a mirage.
By
Todd Dugdale , at 10:27 AM
"EPM, Yeah, and.....?"
Well, I guess I'm most frustrated (angry?) and the devolution of the democratic process and the poisoning of the dialog. Every four years it seems a new line of decency is crossed, which becomes the baseline for the next quadrennial cycle. Maybe I have too Pollyanna a view of elections past. Maybe these aren't really new lows... just the ones I'm emotionally affected by.
McCain has already felt the media sting of going "too negative" with his attack ads around the time of Obama world trip. And now there will really be the stink of desperation in the air so I don't know how the traditional media pundits will "report" on a McCain Dirt Surge. Also, will McCain's Dirt Surge bring any now mud, or will it be all recycled fear and loathing?
By
-epm, at 11:05 AM
Todd, that's more data than I know. I'll certainly take your word on it.
My sense since the beginning is that Minnesota wasn't really in play.
On the other hand, maybe they think it's their best shot. (Not a good shot, but their best shot, you know?) If so, I'm reasonably happy.
(OR, maybe it's the best shot for dollars spent. We're starting to see some signs that their money is getting stretched.)
....
EPM, Looking back at some of the rumors passed in the 17 and 18 hundreds, the allegations now are tamer, however they do receive far more distribution and are given far greater credibility.
If you picked up a yellow journal rag bashing your candidate in the 1800's, you knew what it was.
Now, the neutral media carries that stuff into every home.
As for the negative "surge," it doesn't sound like they have anything new.
By
mikevotes, at 11:47 AM
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