The McCain campaign has just conceded the election.
CNN is quoting McCain advisers saying they believe that Colorado, Iowa, and New Mexico are gone due to the Obama ground game.
They claim their plan for electoral victory requires McCain winning Pennsylvania (with the assumption they'll win NV and Va.... and Fla and Ohio and NC and Mo and.....)
Maybe that's some kind of head fake, I don't know, but, as a plan, that is completely insane. (Pollster, RCP)
(Later: Here's CNN's John King's report.)
Later: For a sense of the Obama campaign's feel on Pa, they have no plans to be in Pa at all for the rest of the campaign.
They claim their plan for electoral victory requires McCain winning Pennsylvania (with the assumption they'll win NV and Va.... and Fla and Ohio and NC and Mo and.....)
Maybe that's some kind of head fake, I don't know, but, as a plan, that is completely insane. (Pollster, RCP)
(Later: Here's CNN's John King's report.)
Later: For a sense of the Obama campaign's feel on Pa, they have no plans to be in Pa at all for the rest of the campaign.
posted by mikevotes at
5:57 PM
9 Comments:
How does a candidate get up every day and do the whole rah-rah campaign thing if they know it's all for naught. Perhaps the candidate really thinks there is a possibly of winning, no matter how slim. And if he can't win, maybe he finds solace in being a character assassin, political suicide bomber of sorts.
Still, it ain't over 'til it's over.
By
-epm, at 8:49 PM
First off, they're pros.
But, second, yeah.
Third, he does still have a duty to the rest of his party. His stance (positive or not) could affect turnout, and thus, downballot results.
By
mikevotes, at 9:00 PM
Yeah, I know. I guess that's why it takes a certain kind of individual who'll put themselves through the meat grinder of national politics.
By
-epm, at 9:14 PM
Yeah.
By
mikevotes, at 9:23 PM
Wow.
The scenario for PA is that MOE goes in McCain's favour, Bradley Effect reduces Obama's lead, and he gains "a few" points and squeaks by.
All the plan needs is a leprechaun to be a first-class fantasy.
VA polled O +10 today on Rasmussen, NV O +5 four days ago. We discussed MO yesterday, and NC is O +3.
Even if Obama lost PA, he would still only need 18 EV to win. Even MT and ND could come into play.
And GA is looking shaky, too. M +2 today.
Even if he had two months to make a major move like this, it would be a bad bet. But with two weeks left, and counting on Joe the Plumber...it's completely insane.
By
Todd Dugdale , at 10:23 PM
The one thing I can say is that the "winning Pa." strategy might allow them to lose one more of the smaller tossups than they plan, unlike if they targeted Minn or Wis or whatever.
On the other hand, PA is much more expensive than Wis or Minn to try and win, so either you're hoping for fairy dust luck or you're committing a whole bunch of money that you won't be able to use for defense elsewhere.
(And, I'm not really sold on Georgia being available yet, but the early turnout numbers are pretty crazy.)
By
mikevotes, at 6:08 AM
Oh, and the fact that the analysts will likely find this improbable to impossible, does not help it as a strategy either.
By
mikevotes, at 6:09 AM
Mike wrote:
The one thing I can say is that the "winning Pa." strategy might allow them to lose one more of the smaller tossups than they plan, unlike if they targeted Minn or Wis or whatever.
Right. They have to do something, and this plan is something. PA would, as you say, make up for several of the smaller-EV states, which means they can ostensibly cut their losses in those states.
It's just so incredibly desperate, like relying on a lottery ticket winning to pay your bills this month.
I wonder, though, if it might be better if McCain pulled out of most of these states anyway, His campaign has been dismal and criticised by the state GOP almost uniformly. MI hasn't really changed much since he abandoned that state. His leads are strongest in states where he hasn't really campaigned much at all. The more he campaigns, the worse he seems to do.
By
Todd Dugdale , at 8:47 AM
Yup. Maybe we should call it the Vilsack. (Remember when he bought the lottery ticket with campaign funds right before he shut it down?
And, to reverse your logic, maybe his campaign has his appearances chasing the states they see sliding away.
By
mikevotes, at 10:38 AM
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