Pardon me for a moment....... (Polling porn)
Don't put anything in this poll result, it's obviously a ridiculous outlier, but as a clear Obama partisan, it still feels good to write:
ABC/WaPo, Obama 52, McCain 43 among likely voters.
(Lots of dubious, but gratifying, internals, too.)
It's getting lots of coverage (Reuters, MSNBC) and it will move those semi-worthless polling averages, but it's still a clear outlier.
Okay, now back to serious analysis.
(Later: The ABC poll seems to seriously over represent Dem over Repub. NBC poll due out late afternoon.)
ABC/WaPo, Obama 52, McCain 43 among likely voters.
(Lots of dubious, but gratifying, internals, too.)
It's getting lots of coverage (Reuters, MSNBC) and it will move those semi-worthless polling averages, but it's still a clear outlier.
Okay, now back to serious analysis.
(Later: The ABC poll seems to seriously over represent Dem over Repub. NBC poll due out late afternoon.)
posted by mikevotes at
6:09 AM
5 Comments:
As we've seen with America's perversion of democracy, known as the Electoral College, national polls are not necessarily indicative of actual electoral results.... And we all now how skilled the GOP is with manipulating a perversion.
By
-epm, at 7:44 AM
Except that this time it looks like the Dems have the electoral college advantage over national polling.
By
mikevotes, at 10:41 AM
Really? I'll admit I'm not a poll hound, but I thought things were "neck-and-neck" in the swing states. Is this just more media spinning a horse race that isn't really a horse race?
By
-epm, at 10:48 AM
Well, it's close, but if the polls today are the election, he wins through Colorado. (Losing both Ohio and Florida.)
However, if you go to the next tier, you've got McCain barely hanging on (+1 or +2) in Florida, Ohio, and Virginia, and that's grounds for a blowout.
(I'm operating on the assumption that the Obama machine will more likely turnout ahead of the polls than the McCain campiagn. So, I see that if there's a miss on the state polls, you're far more likely to see that breaking towards Obama.)
By
mikevotes, at 11:00 AM
Sorry, I wasn't exact. Colorado gets him to 269, a tie, which he then wins in the House.
So, an ugly win. NH or any of the others would put him officially over the top.
By
mikevotes, at 11:15 AM
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