The Obama fallback, the "Base Plus" campaign
Everybody's freaking out over the Obama campaign. Calm down. He's winning by 5 points with the fundamentals on his side.
However, even in a "worst case" scenario where the polls close (which they haven't,) the Obama campaign still has one more bulwark, the "Base Plus" campaign, and they're doing all the legwork to leave that option open.
In 2000 and 2004, George Bush outperformed the pre-election polling by energizing their "base" and got them to turn out at historically irregular levels.
The Obama campaign is putting all the pieces in place to allow a similar "Base Plus" strategy. Building volunteers, establishing contact lists, registering voters in key states.... Even if the polls close (which they haven't) they will have the elements in place to win the strategic numbers game.
Remember, these are the same guys who "stole" the primary delegate count by targeting the math and applying their resources accordingly.
Without some major interceding event, I find it impossible to imagine a scenario in which the GOP turns out bigger than 2000/2004. Do you think the Dem turnout will be lower than 2000/2004?
"Base Plus" is not how these guys would like to win, but it's certainly there if they need it.
(Side Note: the Obama camp has smartly decided not to press the enthusiasm right now, avoiding one of the all too typical mistakes of populist campaigns. It's impossible to maintain high enthusiasm for an extended period, so they've kind of let it fall slack through the summer. I would expect the Convention to mark something of a relaunch for 60 days of Obama fervor.)
However, even in a "worst case" scenario where the polls close (which they haven't,) the Obama campaign still has one more bulwark, the "Base Plus" campaign, and they're doing all the legwork to leave that option open.
In 2000 and 2004, George Bush outperformed the pre-election polling by energizing their "base" and got them to turn out at historically irregular levels.
The Obama campaign is putting all the pieces in place to allow a similar "Base Plus" strategy. Building volunteers, establishing contact lists, registering voters in key states.... Even if the polls close (which they haven't) they will have the elements in place to win the strategic numbers game.
Remember, these are the same guys who "stole" the primary delegate count by targeting the math and applying their resources accordingly.
Without some major interceding event, I find it impossible to imagine a scenario in which the GOP turns out bigger than 2000/2004. Do you think the Dem turnout will be lower than 2000/2004?
"Base Plus" is not how these guys would like to win, but it's certainly there if they need it.
(Side Note: the Obama camp has smartly decided not to press the enthusiasm right now, avoiding one of the all too typical mistakes of populist campaigns. It's impossible to maintain high enthusiasm for an extended period, so they've kind of let it fall slack through the summer. I would expect the Convention to mark something of a relaunch for 60 days of Obama fervor.)
posted by mikevotes at
7:51 AM
4 Comments:
5 points is still a small margin. Anything can happen to that.
Just wait until after the conventions, and after the convention "bumps" settle. That will give a much clearer picture of "poll results that will be pretty close to actual election results".
By
realist, at 8:22 AM
Yeah, 5 points is not huge, definitely not unassailable, but at the same time, a 5 point popular vote margin works out to about 310-230 electoral college votes.
And more importantly, I think, that 5 point margin hasn't wobbled at all for two months. The voters who have decided seem to have completely decided. Obama high 40's, McCain low 40's with neither braking that next barrier.
This polling seems pretty remarkably calcified, so it will likely take something big to break it. Definitely possible, but....
(And if your thought is the Republican convention is going to generate more excitement than the Dem convention, I find that pretty unlikely. Again, barring something big or unforseen.)
By
mikevotes, at 8:31 AM
I am guessing that Obama will get a bigger bump than McCain will. Unless Hillary does the "it's not my party, so I am going to spoil it!" thing in Denver.
By
realist, at 8:44 AM
And that Hillary thing will be tricky because the media will be hunting for it.
(I wonder how she feels about being the setup for the keynote speaker.)
By
mikevotes, at 10:50 AM
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