The "Sunni Awakening" extorts
Frankly, this has been going on since the beginning of the "Sunni Awakening," but I thought it was a good example,
I'm definitely not against the policy, firing money (at Iraqi rates) is alot cheaper than firing weapons, and I don't think this guy is flipping back to "Al Qaeda," but this does highlight a bit about the Iraqi "success" that doesn't get too much coverage.
The Iraqis are "on board" so long as it fits their interests, and right now it takes significant cash incentives to tip the Sunni balance to make it in their interests.
The Iraqi officer leading a U.S.-financed anti-jihadist group is in no mood for small talk -- either the military gives him more money or he will pack his bags and rejoin the ranks of al-Qaeda.
"I'll go back to al-Qaeda if you stop backing the Sahwa (Awakening) groups,"
I'm definitely not against the policy, firing money (at Iraqi rates) is alot cheaper than firing weapons, and I don't think this guy is flipping back to "Al Qaeda," but this does highlight a bit about the Iraqi "success" that doesn't get too much coverage.
The Iraqis are "on board" so long as it fits their interests, and right now it takes significant cash incentives to tip the Sunni balance to make it in their interests.
posted by mikevotes at
6:38 AM
4 Comments:
If the Kurds get control of Kirkuk every Sunni in Iraq will be joining 'Al Quaida'.
By
Anonymous, at 8:10 AM
My concern with our approach to the Sahwa is that I find it strikingly similar to how we "managed" the Mujahideen. And we all know how that turned out. It birthed the very terror network we are now using using the Sahwa to defeat.
Will the Sahwa become the next generation's al Qaeda?
By
-epm, at 10:09 AM
These Sahwa ("Awakening") militias are on shaky ground. Since the Sunnis boycotted the elections, the Shia are the government even in predominantly Sunni provinces. The Shia governments do not make it easy on these militias, and there are numerous anecdotal reports of extortion, arrests, and bureaucratic red tape. On top of this, there has been a serious and escalating bombing campaign against the Sahwa leadership over the past three months.
As far as "rejoining Al-Qaeda", it's obvious to me that AQ has become a generic catch-all term for "bad guys" throughout Iraq. I suspect the Sahwa would be tempted to engage in the lucrative kidnapping, extortion/protection rackets, and black market trade, since they already have an armed and trained organisation in place. With the (Shia) police force essentially already arrayed against them, they would have nothing to lose and much to gain by going to the "dark side".
IMO, the Sahwa concept was a short-term fix. We are seeing it run to the end of its viability, as the pressures created by the warped elections inevitably mount.
By
Todd Dugdale , at 10:26 AM
Anon, keep 'al qaeda' in quotes as you did. I think that'll be a real Iraqi Sunni affair.
They might even fight under their new "awakening" troop names.
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EPM, Fair and floating point. That's always been among the top few concerns (along with equipping one side of a civil war, and their possibility of turning on the US again.)
Probably not an Al Qaeda like movement because they're not really ever going to be able to claim any victory the way the Afghans claimed victory over the Soviets, but, definitely fighters. definitely a movement.
There are already Iraq trained Iraqi Sunnis ready and floating around out there.
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Todd, I agree on the Al Qaeda terminology. Hell, they didn't really come from Al Qaeda, mostly local militia/warlords, so, yeah, that's where they're going.
And, I'm not sure we've hit the end of its viability. The two stressors I see are 1) They will keep asking for more money, adding more cousins and "ghosts," and 2) External events like Kirkuk mentioned above or the Shia stress that you talk about.
I think the most likely outcome isn't really an abandonment by the Sunnis, but instead something like the Shia militias were doing within the armed forces, holding their "day jobs" and being militia at night.
It'll be much harder to deal with if it's not a clear cut "we quit." It puts all the pressure on the US to draw a line that they would be loathe to draw.
......
Obviously I'm not alone in thinking this article was an interesting conversation starter.
By
mikevotes, at 1:54 PM
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