Obama is winning by Karl Rove's analysis

Karl Rove & co has another electoral estimate out (.pdf), and as of right now, they estimate Obama with 272 electoral votes. If he lost every Rove designated tossup (Florida, Ohio, Missouri) and just held the states he's leading by +5% or more, Obama still wins in this estimation.

As Larry Sabato said the other day,

"While no election outcome is guaranteed and McCain's prospects could improve over the next three and a half months, virtually all of the evidence that we have reviewed -- historical patterns, structural features of this election cycle, and national and state polls conducted over the last several months -- point to a comfortable Obama/Democratic party victory in November. Trumpeting this race as a toss-up, almost certain to produce another nail-biter finish, distorts the evidence and does a disservice to readers and viewers who rely upon such punditry. Again, maybe conditions will change in McCain's favor, and if they do, they should also be accurately described by the media. But current data do not justify calling this election a toss-up."

And none of this accounts for the estimated differential in turnout.

(Here's the Rove map in .pdf or FirstRead's totals as a blog post.)

Also, Here's the Pollster Map. Obama 284, McCain 147.