A remarkable stability in the polls
Has anyone else noticed that we're almost two months on from Obama clinching the nomination, and that, in those seven weeks, the national polls haven't moved at all? Obama +5 to +8. Not really even a wobble.
I'm definitely not saying it's over, one thing happens and it could all change, but I find myself amazed at how calcified the numbers seem to be thus far. Can you think of another political race where the numbers have remained frozen for two months?
Maybe Obama's trip or McCain's new "attacking" stance will move the numbers.
Also, I haven't watched all the state polling that closely because it tends to be more volatile and less accurate, but I think it's also notable that Obama is now handily winning everybody's current set of electoral projections. (Pollster, CNN, RealClearPolitics, Rove's math(.pdf)
I'm definitely not saying it's over, one thing happens and it could all change, but I find myself amazed at how calcified the numbers seem to be thus far. Can you think of another political race where the numbers have remained frozen for two months?
Maybe Obama's trip or McCain's new "attacking" stance will move the numbers.
Also, I haven't watched all the state polling that closely because it tends to be more volatile and less accurate, but I think it's also notable that Obama is now handily winning everybody's current set of electoral projections. (Pollster, CNN, RealClearPolitics, Rove's math(.pdf)
posted by mikevotes at
6:14 AM
3 Comments:
Gallup now has Obama with a nine point lead.
I prefer Gallup because it uses registered voters. The "likely voter" screen is widely believed to over-represent older voters.
Even right-leaning Rasmussen is giving Obama a five point lead nationally.
As for the electoral votes, all that Obama really has to do is hold on to the "Kerry states" and win a few more. He's definitely holding on to the states Kerry won, and he has several options to push past 270.
I'd also note that McCain is holding only single digit leads in five Deep South states. Not that Obama will win those states, but it's a dramatic cultural shift in states where residents tend to assume that "everybody" is a Republican.
In AK, TX, SC, and GA, McCain is not even above 50%, but still leads. Wow.
By
Todd Dugdale , at 12:55 PM
Todd, I'm not a huge fan of the daily tracking polls. They serve a purpose in determining momentum, but I'm always a little skeptical about their absolute numbers.
The most striking thing to me in those electoral assessments is that generally they only grant the electors if the candidate leads +5 or more which means that Obama is at or near the 270 with a five point margin (generally outside MoE) in those states.
And we've had the discussion on poll modeling. I think alot of Republicans are going to show up pinching their noses, but there's a very open question on the Dem and independent turnout, and not only in pure numbers, but in how those segments are made up. (ie "libertarian" independents vs left leaning independents, or centrist Dems vs. single women.)
Everything still looks well on track, barring something unexpected.
I'm just amazed how little it's moving. That's probably why McCain is attacking.
By
mikevotes, at 2:51 PM
One more word on the daily trackings. I try not to post them out of context. If I'm not posting it every few days, I think it loses something.
That +9 is pretty impressive and may show real momentum, I just don't like to post it.
But even the tracking polls have been pretty steady.
By
mikevotes, at 2:54 PM
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