This is where the election is fought
There's a new ABC/WaPo poll out. This group says this, that group says that, Obama + 6, blah-de-blah-blah-blah.
BUT, here's something that never gets enough coverage. Here is the demographic that usually decides the elections.
Now, by election time, that number will be much lower, but it will still be healthy double digits. A sizable number of voters vote, not on issues, but on some vague feelings and half informed opinions. By election time, they'll vaguely know that McCain favors tax cuts (but not for who or how much) and that Obama is against the war (again not specifics of how or what he's going to do.)
This is where presidential elections are decided, in a hazy confluence of impressions, branding, and partial information, and how those half opinions resonate among certain demographic groups. (That's why "Bush's third term" or "scary black man" are more likely to decide this election than healthcare plans.)
It's that 20% of America who vote on "truthiness....."
You don't hear too much of that dissection from "the experts." I guess it's an image we don't want to hold about ourselves.
BUT, here's something that never gets enough coverage. Here is the demographic that usually decides the elections.
One point of uncertainty for both men in the poll is that despite more than a year of campaigning in primaries, neither candidate's positions on important concerns are widely familiar to voters. About half of those surveyed said they knew "only some" or "little or none" about Obama's and McCain's stands on specific issues.
Now, by election time, that number will be much lower, but it will still be healthy double digits. A sizable number of voters vote, not on issues, but on some vague feelings and half informed opinions. By election time, they'll vaguely know that McCain favors tax cuts (but not for who or how much) and that Obama is against the war (again not specifics of how or what he's going to do.)
This is where presidential elections are decided, in a hazy confluence of impressions, branding, and partial information, and how those half opinions resonate among certain demographic groups. (That's why "Bush's third term" or "scary black man" are more likely to decide this election than healthcare plans.)
It's that 20% of America who vote on "truthiness....."
You don't hear too much of that dissection from "the experts." I guess it's an image we don't want to hold about ourselves.
posted by mikevotes at
7:45 AM
4 Comments:
You're so right about the truthiness vote... I wonder if it isn't more like 33% than 20%.
It's all marketing and charisma... Making the voter feel secure in their decision.
By
-epm, at 10:34 AM
I dunno. It's not a clean division, more of a spectrum, but I would rate it at roughly 20 %.
But, I think importantly, a good part of that is marginal and occasional/presidential only voters.
They're a block not reached through traditional outreach. Comedy shows, word of mouth. They're affected mostly by other people's presentations.
By
mikevotes, at 11:06 AM
I've got a sister and brother-in-law like that. In spite of 8 years of malfeasance and mismanagement by Bush and co., they are mesmerized by the flag image that the Republicans have co-opted, and say they will be voting McCain. Aaaaaaaagh!
By
Anonymous, at 1:59 PM
Yup. They're out there, but on both sides. I would bet we could find some Obama supporters who back him with no idea of his stances on issues other than guesses.
He has that brand of "non-Bush" that is pretty powerful, too.
I think that's what the whole "defining candidates" section has become about, setting the groundwork for winning these voters.
By
mikevotes, at 4:01 PM
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