Stray political thoughts
I find myself wondering about the politics of Barack Obama lecturing "the black community" on fatherhood, education, and other social ills. It played well to the audience yesterday, and the message seems to be well received among his African American support, but I find myself wondering if part of this message is not intended as some part of a coded Obama identity play towards white "values voters." I guess I'll have to watch where they propagate the mentions of the message.
If Clinton were the candidate, would the Dem Convention be having the same problems finding large corporate donors?
This article bugged the crud out of me. It started with the title, "Cindy McCain and Michelle Obama: polar opposites," and got worse from there.
Amidst all the talk of Obama/McCain polling, to what degree are those polls still modeling on a Bush "base" 2004 turnout model?
And, is Bobby Jindal's path to the VP slot saying he "supports teaching intelligent design in schools along with evolution?"
If Clinton were the candidate, would the Dem Convention be having the same problems finding large corporate donors?
This article bugged the crud out of me. It started with the title, "Cindy McCain and Michelle Obama: polar opposites," and got worse from there.
Amidst all the talk of Obama/McCain polling, to what degree are those polls still modeling on a Bush "base" 2004 turnout model?
And, is Bobby Jindal's path to the VP slot saying he "supports teaching intelligent design in schools along with evolution?"
posted by mikevotes at
6:40 AM
11 Comments:
Obama and fatherhood: This is something I've heard him mention on the campaign trail, but rarely and matter of factly, not as a "policy" speech. This isn't a newly discovered issue for him, but, yes, I'm sure it was intended for the ears of white "values" voters as much the more direct audience.
If Obama can counter the RWSM (Right Wing Smear Machine) that he's a radical, muslim, anti-white, Marxist, would-be dictator.... Well, I think in a room free of lies and distortions, "values" voters would find much to like about Obama. If fact, for some percentage of that demographic, the tipping point is to just get past the fear engendered by the RWSM.
The AFP, Cindy/Michelle article: Disgusting, chauvinistic and bordering on racist. Very low rent stuff.
By
-epm, at 8:31 AM
My own stray political thought/question:
In recent statements, British PM Brown seems to have come out as Poodle II, with regard to Iraq/Iran/Afghanistan; parroting Bush lines and running counter to press accounts (unnamed sources) as to where the British foreign office stood on these issues.
A) Is this true? is Gordon Brown really just Poodle II?
B) Has Gordon Brown's apparent preference to support Bush over his own constituency the final blow to the Labor Party's lock on power?
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-epm, at 8:39 AM
EPM, It's definitely not new, but I can't help but be cynical about the intended audience.
And on the Michelle/Cindy article, I almost subtitled it, "so different, like black and white."
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And to answer yours, I haven't really watched Gordon Brown that closely. There's very little he could do now that would have a big impact on either the policy or politics of the US, however I have seen some of those reports of his eroding position at home.
What's the hook that Bush has on these guys. Is it post office business offers? Where's Tony Blair making his money now?
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mikevotes, at 1:13 PM
I don't think many people in the UK think they're 'winning' but the lads have a good time and it's hands on experience with the whizzbangs. At least Brown doesn't talk about a mission.
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Anonymous, at 1:14 PM
Amidst all the talk of Obama/McCain polling, to what degree are those polls still modeling on a Bush "base" 2004 turnout model?
Interesting question. The MSM is definitely still working with that 2004 "battleground" mindset, as was Hillary's campaign. AFAICT, the GOP is doing the same.
Kerry was a completely different candidate with a completely different strategy, running before most of the country realised that Iraq was a mistake.
Obama and Dean are working from a much broader view, and have created electoral scenarios in which Obama can win the jackpot even though losing Ohio, for example.
For an example of this kind of analysis, check out fivethirtyeight.com.
Rather than going up against the Maginot Line, there is an alternative, but everyone is still stuck in the paradigm of the past.
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Todd Dugdale , at 3:16 PM
The article made poor Cindy McCain out to be more of a victim than Michelle Obama.
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Unknown, at 3:18 PM
Anon, I just don't know. I'm not up on UK politics.
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Todd, As I've been saying since January, the Obama map is a bigger gamble than the traditional.
There are certainly reasons to believe that the Obama map works, especially in this environment, but as it's new, and probably involves giving some things away, it's got a cost to it.
(And I'm still not convinced that Clinton could have won on the traditional map. I live in Texas, the land of the anti-Clinton sentiment, and I gotta tell you it's still out there and would bring GOP to the polls. To my mind, Clinton had a pretty hard ceiling. She would have had to win it thin.)
Personally, though, I think Dem and new turnout trumps it all this year.
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Kevin, I could see that, but something in the read seemed to paint Cindy McCain's quiet, smiling, doting, "politics is boy stuff" more positively than I would have.
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mikevotes, at 3:58 PM
Well there are similarities with the US. A lot of people think the Taliban are coming to cut their heads off, we must support the troops, stop the drug trade, free the Muslim women etc. Trouble is Britain has been in the Empire business a long time. They even tried it on Afghanistan. People have gotten cynical.
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Anonymous, at 4:38 PM
I should add I think the whole War on Terror thing has become basically a question of Western prestige. (I'm a Brit living in North America in case you were wondering.)
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Anonymous, at 4:53 PM
Yeah, but the IQ of the people that works for is getting lower and lower.
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mikevotes, at 5:27 PM
I'm actually becoming pleasantly surprised by the level of awareness in America. There is still hope.
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Anonymous, at 6:02 PM
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