Political bits
(CNN) Pa. Rep John Murtha endorses Clinton. (A good anti-war endorsement. A good Pa. endorsement. A good "white male" endorsement. +1 superdelegate.)
(Politico) Democratic leaning groups (Unions, Moveon, etc) pledged $425 million for voter registration and mobilization.
(CNN) Clinton is going to Michigan to try and press the image of a revote and blame Obama.
(WSJBlog) However, the only polling I've seen on Michigan shows Clinton and Obama "in a dead heat."
Later: (TPM) A second Mich poll from Rasmussen, 41/41.
(FirstRead) The Clinton camp has hired another poller. (Mark Penn has previously been guiding all that business to his own firm. (A shift in power?))
(AP) Clinton's First Lady schedules are being released today minus 32 days they are trying to locate. (Will the Clinton camp try to use this to diffuse all the "disclosure" attacks? --- Halperin says "no smoking guns.")
And, "the speech", Day 2. The growing analysis theme seems to be that Obama's speech worked on liberals, but the effect on everyone else is still in question.
One more thought. The media's gauge of Obama is now how he does with white male voters in Pennsylvania, a Clinton bastion where she has the support of almost all the state and local officials. (How he does against Clinton in the primary does not reflect how he will do in the general? The polling right now shows him beating McCain in Pa. --- The Clinton camp must be pleased. - Another expectations win.)
(Politico) Democratic leaning groups (Unions, Moveon, etc) pledged $425 million for voter registration and mobilization.
(CNN) Clinton is going to Michigan to try and press the image of a revote and blame Obama.
(WSJBlog) However, the only polling I've seen on Michigan shows Clinton and Obama "in a dead heat."
Later: (TPM) A second Mich poll from Rasmussen, 41/41.
(FirstRead) The Clinton camp has hired another poller. (Mark Penn has previously been guiding all that business to his own firm. (A shift in power?))
(AP) Clinton's First Lady schedules are being released today minus 32 days they are trying to locate. (Will the Clinton camp try to use this to diffuse all the "disclosure" attacks? --- Halperin says "no smoking guns.")
And, "the speech", Day 2. The growing analysis theme seems to be that Obama's speech worked on liberals, but the effect on everyone else is still in question.
One more thought. The media's gauge of Obama is now how he does with white male voters in Pennsylvania, a Clinton bastion where she has the support of almost all the state and local officials. (How he does against Clinton in the primary does not reflect how he will do in the general? The polling right now shows him beating McCain in Pa. --- The Clinton camp must be pleased. - Another expectations win.)
posted by mikevotes at
7:53 AM
9 Comments:
Speech, Day 2:
I think pundits of the Fox News ilk have no problem with wearing their racial prejudices right out in the open. They're unaffected by this speech and will be perfectly happy to twist it into a negative.
As for local news outlets, I think that's going to vary widely. My general sense is these are pretty much low brow organizations across the country, with little interest in journalism but a huge interest in "ratings." Three of the four local Boston stations completely missed the point of the speech; I don't even know if the talking heads watched it or just got their info from the Intertoobs. The fourth station actually did a pretty good job, for a local station.
The print media seems to be where the content of Obama's speech -- as well as the man himself -- was most positively received. This is good, of course, but if it's not read to them by a big-haired, Botoxed blond in a push-up bra, surrounded by twirling background graphic, well.. Americans just won't hear about it.
NPR is usually me go-to station for news and analysis. Today they had Juan Williams giving his analysis. All I have to say is NPR would be doing themselves a great service to let this guy go. He's really gone smug-and-cynical mainstream with bad analogies and off the mark "observations." Maybe Cokie Roberts can go with them. They can share a cab.
Clinton:
I think Hillary's been standing on the sidelines hoping Barack simply implodes... maybe with a little help from the broadcast/cable media and the talk radio echo chamber. This isn't a knock. She and her campaign haven't been trying to make hay out of this "controversy." In the one snip I saw from her, she was actually pretty supportive of Obama's sentiments -- she wasn't in campaign mode. Cool.
By
-epm, at 8:47 AM
Yeah, but Juan Williams (like David Brooks in the afternoon) is their protection of their governmental financing.
I think one of the key factors will be the amount of coverage Obama gets on his speeches today and tomorow.
The meta here appears to be rising above, acting presidential, whatever.
(Clinton is definitely hoping for an implosion. That's her only way through.
And with the floating charges of using racism, how else could she respond to that speech?)
By
mikevotes, at 8:59 AM
It's just that Juan Williams is soooo lame... so damn pedestrian compared to the other NPR voices (Ann Garrels, Nita Totenberg, Sylvia Poggioli etc. not to mention Daniel Schorr). *sigh*
I picked up on the "presidential" angle you mentioned yesterday. Also as you pointed out, if Obama moves on to other "presidential" themes this will help him build that mindset in the media and public. It can't just be about race and religion.
By
-epm, at 9:27 AM
Thoughts on first lady records:
It's not that anyone is expecting a "smoking gun" per se, that's old '90s Repub stuff. On the contrary, its that the records will prove to be largely mundane, thus undercutting the "experience for day-1" claims.
The Clinton's financial records and donor lists... now that will (potentially) be smoking gun stuff. Or, if not smoking, at least gunshot residue stuff. (I watch too much CSI).
By
-epm, at 9:59 AM
Yeah, but the tax records (or Clinton library donors) will likely be far more complicated. I belive they're working to release the safest stuff first so they can diffuse the "disclosure issue."
By
mikevotes, at 10:46 AM
Are there new polls I haven't seen? Real Clear's average of polls shows McCain beating Obama in PA by 2.2%.
Though I have to say, after the "Al Qaeda in Iran" comments I'm a lot less worried about McCain than I used to be.
By
Anonymous, at 12:49 PM
TG, you may well be right.
I'd seen, I think, two polls that showed both Dems beating McCain, but that's just what's crossed my radar so that may not be accurate.
And, I'm still not too worried about McCain. He's a pretty flawed candidate tied closely to a very unpopular president. That doesn't by any means mean it's a lock, but the environment is/will be very friendly towards the Dem nominee.
Plus all he's got is nat'l security and "straight talk"/reform, neither of which have been very rigorously examined. He has holes, too, and right now, he's completely unchallenged.
By
mikevotes, at 1:18 PM
remember - HRC is expected to win PA by 19-20 points. We can not allow the goal posts to be moved once we get to within 2 weeks of the election. The Wright nonsense will fade in 2 weeks and maybe we'll have something else to talk about ... say accepting reality that most PA dems will vote for the dem nominee regardless of if it is HRC of OB...
By
Anonymous, at 7:48 PM
I was thinking that tonight, that the long Pa window does allow Obama to recover.
By
mikevotes, at 10:08 PM
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