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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Monday, February 11, 2008

A body blow assessment of the Clinton campaign from the NYTimes.

A Drudge flash says the NYTimes is running a story tomorrow on concern and disquiet around the Clinton campaign that it might be slipping away.

Later: Here's the NYTimes piece. It sounds like an effort by the Clinton campaign to try and "freeze" the situation as it is today. They feel the tide and want to hold back the ocean.
Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton and her advisers increasingly believe that, after a series of losses, she has been boxed into a must-win position in the Ohio and Texas primaries on March 4, and she has begun reassuring anxious donors and superdelegates that the nomination is not slipping away from her, aides said on Monday.

Mrs. Clinton held a buck-up-the-troops conference call on Monday with donors, superdelegates and other supporters; several said afterward that she had sounded tired and a little down, but determined about Ohio and Texas.

They also said that they had not been especially soothed, and that they believed she might be on a losing streak that could jeopardize her competitiveness in those states.


But I think the most significant thing in the article is this,
Several Clinton superdelegates, whose votes could help decide the nomination, said Monday that they were wavering in the face of Mr. Obama’s momentum after victories in Washington State, Nebraska, Louisiana and Maine last weekend.

Some said that they, like the hundreds of uncommitted superdelegates still at stake, might ultimately “go with the flow,” in the words of one, and support the candidate who appears to show the most strength in the primaries to come.

That's the key. I doubt if any of these people would come forward and publicly defect, but as I've been saying for awhile, in the end, the superdelegates will end up ratifying the popular vote.

(This revelation will also have the effect of pressuring the networks to start pulling superdelegates out of their published horse race tallies making Obama look further ahead.)

More: The money woes continue, "Obama fund-raisers say he is taking in roughly $1 million a day, while Clinton fund-raisers say she is taking in about half of that, mostly online."

And, "In a sign of Texas’s importance, she plans to fly there Tuesday, even though Wisconsin votes next week." (She's going to the Valley and El Paso, all incredibly Hispanic areas.)

And, among outside supporters, it sounds like a hard line is being drawn at Texas/Ohio, and it's a pretty high bar.
“They are looking way too much at Florida, Michigan and McCain, because all three won’t matter if she doesn’t blow Obama away in Texas and Ohio,” said a Democrat who is both a Clinton superdelegate and major donor, and who spoke on condition of anonymity to offer a candid assessment of campaign strategy. “Obama has momentum that has to be stopped by March 4.”

She has to "blow Obama away in Texas and Ohio" to satisfy?

This is a hell of an article to get on a big primary day. While the talking heads are filling airtime waiting on results, this is all they will be talking about.

She needs some good news badly.

11 Comments:

  • I think we're going to see the Clinton camp try to work a victim angle... real or imagined. We'll start hearing about the hostile press. We might even hear gender tinged comments that indirectly raise questions about boys network and the outsider woman.

    Got to a) get the media to fear/second-guess their publishing critical Clinton stories, b) bolster her base not to abandon her. (Your either with me or with the woman haters.) I'm being harsh, but I think that's the gist of it. It's just politics and this stuff works.

    By Blogger -epm, at 7:04 PM  

  • epm - I hope you are wrong about the victim card but I will be watching closely and may have to change some of my beliefs on the subject if this comes to pass.

    By Blogger Ptelea, at 8:36 PM  

  • Victim is such a loaded word. I think they will try to play up their weakened state. (The cards they're dealt, right?) We saw the beginnings of this when Mark Penn tried to paint Obama as the "establishment candidate" last week.

    Right now, they're talking out both sides of the mouth, claiming underdog and "most votes/most delegates."

    I think that that weakened/victim/underdog/whatever label might be their key and only lever is they really want to try and win this thing through superdelegates.

    If they're going to try and pull off the superdelegate coup, they will need some sort of cover, and that's about the only one available.

    So, look for laying the groundwork for both buying time and explaining how winning through superdelegates is actually right.

    The NYTimes piece is up now, so I'm probably going to rewrite the post.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 9:06 PM  

  • that preordained feeling...check
    Iowa win....ooops
    tears...check
    NH win....check
    Lose the weekend but lower expectations...check
    play the victim...check
    more tears....on the way

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 9:19 PM  

  • Tactics lose their effectiveness the more they're used.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 9:37 PM  

  • Clinton tear-ups/misty eyes work everytime with the right-base...she knows it's the ONE thing that will strengthen a big voter base to the full effect..."I'm being picked on/sad/down (take your pick)...I need your protection"...it has worked practically her entire career...

    How much did she make on that one investment (cattle?)??? Down and need a quick buck...her protectors come in and get her a quick payoff...just to cite one NON-political example. She did nothing to earn it...just followed insider advise.

    Tears won't work on the Latino base...but look for code words to be effective there. Fairly strong "anti-black man" flow in that group.

    The middle age to senior white woman crowd (and senior men)...water works will get them every time. I'm hoping most of MSM will either ignore it (doubtful) or raise some question to its genuine-ness.

    The MSM needs to look at her history of being a first lady or even recent senator-life...did she tear-up often? When? Why didn't she tear up about Bill and Monica on camera? Because it wouldn't work! Wouldn't gain anything except more abuse!

    Clintons learn fast - don't see big-bill very often anymore...altho look to see him in Ohio as they still love him everywhere outside of Cincy...(and downtown Cleveland thanks to Bill's recent foot-in-mouth-disease).

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:15 PM  

  • I dunno, that article seemed kind of short on facts and long on innuendo. Clearly, she needs to win Ohio and Texas... we knew that. A couple of anonymous sources say it's rougher than that.... do you wonder how many other quotes--ones that didn't fit the chosen storyline--were gathered but not used?

    It certainly doesn't help Clinton, but given what we've learned in recent years about the quality of NYT reporting, I'm not sure it hurts so much either.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:07 AM  

  • Anon, I get your point, but no one else seems that worked up over tears, and she hasn't really gone down the "victim" road yet.

    ......

    TG,

    Agreed. Short on facts, long on impressions. The question is, did they write this to reflect a broad feeling, the thoughts of just a few exceptions, or made it out of whole cloth.

    And, I don't think this article in itself is particularly damaging. The danger for the Clinton campaign is that this sets the topic of discussion, precisely because it is so negative.

    I think we're going to hear alot of these points tonight in the primary coverage, and, if the primaries go the way they're expected, it will be a key signpost in the discussion for the next few days.

    I think it will act as a reference point for the discussions, and that's not the frame the Clinton campaign needs right now.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 8:40 AM  

  • Victim is a loaded word. When I said:

    "the Clinton camp try to work a victim angle"

    I meant that Clinton may cast herself as being the "target" of aggressive and/or negative reporting... as being "picked on" (a phrase they've used before) or "piled on" or as a "target." I meant victim in that sense, not as a helpless, powerless waif.

    But I was suggesting something more than being the underdog. Something that implied being under attack or treated unfairly.

    It's just something they've done in the past.

    By Blogger -epm, at 10:21 AM  

  • Oh, I got your point.

    It's just that that word has become so loaded used in isolation that I wanted to shy away from it while discussing exactly what you were saying, but I couldn't come up with a better one that hit it with precision.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 10:56 AM  

  • Cool. I just wanted to clear up any confusion I may have left. I'm not in the "Hillary fakes tears" camp.

    Although I think she'd fake a sprained ankle to get sympathy for losing a race. LOL. I'm kidding... mostly.

    By Blogger -epm, at 11:18 AM  

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