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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Monday, February 11, 2008

If Iowa was a primary rather than a caucus.......

Caucuses are funny things. They tend to select the candidate with the more passionate support not necessarily the broadest support, hence the strength of Obama and Huckabee in caucuses.

This morning I'm wondering where we would be today if Iowa had held primaries rather than caucuses. Would Obama be where he is today? Huckabee? It could've been a very different world.

posted by mikevotes at 7:13 AM

3 Comments:

  • It's not just that people show up to caucuses more fired up for Obama. It's at that he's an easier sell to uncommitted voters. Where a casual voter may very will vote for Clinton in a primary (name recognition, nostalgic, pre-Bush, "Clinton" vibe), that same voter could be "campaigned" into vote for Obama in a caucus.

    As I said, I think Hillary's base are Hillary constituents. They aren't moving. That's about 40% They aren't interested in anyone else and they aren't going anywhere. Another 15% comes from the aforementioned casual voter (name rec; nostalgia; general vibe). Obama's success has been in swaying that 15%. I think the election results show that.

    By Blogger -epm, at 10:47 AM  

  • Really good point. It echoes the Obama campaign's claim that they do well if they're "introduced" to voters.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 11:02 AM  

  • "If"'s are for losers!

    If my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle...

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 6:10 PM  

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