Our allies
Beneath the radar, the British are in real trouble in Basra.
Since their slight drawdown and change in mission, their bases in Basra have been under multiple daily mortar and rocket attacks. The Mahdi and Badr are conducting a war over the city, and security forces in the area are so infiltrated, they can no longer really be called government forces.
The British soldiers are pretty much sitting ducks, stuck there in unchanging numbers and in an unchanging situation by US domestic and US-British politics.
Since their slight drawdown and change in mission, their bases in Basra have been under multiple daily mortar and rocket attacks. The Mahdi and Badr are conducting a war over the city, and security forces in the area are so infiltrated, they can no longer really be called government forces.
The British soldiers are pretty much sitting ducks, stuck there in unchanging numbers and in an unchanging situation by US domestic and US-British politics.
posted by mikevotes at
8:18 AM
4 Comments:
Interesting to note: British troops tried the surge strategy before and it failed. Operation Sinbad ended in 2/07, and it brought only short-term stability which soon eroded as soon as the surge ended.
The MOD also has had the good sense to see the sectarian violence and political stalemate as the primary issue, rather than Al-Qaeda.
Britain is having even bigger problems maintaining troop levels than the U.S.
MOD sources, on condition of anonymity, have recently said that Iraq is a "lost cause".
By
Todd Dugdale , at 9:03 AM
Only cursorily related but came across this on BBC web site:
"US 'ignored' UK rendition protest...
[The intelligence report] said America's "lack of regard" for UK concerns had "serious implications" for future intelligence relations."
By
-epm, at 11:27 AM
My correspondent friend who just got back said that Shia v. Shia violence will be the key issue of the future.
I wonder when CNN will even mention it as an issue.
By
Praguetwin, at 12:20 PM
One general point before I go on to specifics, if the goal of Iran is to dislodge the US from Iraq, these British troops in Basra are a good way to go about it.
As Todd notes, they are having trouble maintaining their presence both for practical and political reasons.
If the British are forced to pull back, it would have a political ripple effect on the US, so, as it's all Shia militia in Basra with very little Iraqi government, Sunni, or US interference, the British are by far the easiest and highest return target.
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Todd, they tried it in a somewhat softer way, but you're definitely right. If you're looking at parallels, the direct Shia v Shia violence was lower and the troops to population ratio was also lower.
I would also argue that because the major Shia parties (Fadhila is in Basra, too) also have elements within the fracturing government it's a little different than the US in Baghdad or Baquba.
But in the large, you're right. The thing I'd note is that Basra really underlines that the conflict is more about power and economics than religion.
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EPM, I think the British statement is mostly frustrated bluster, but the failure to cooperate with the British does show the assymetric relationship.
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Praguetwin, I think it will be a factor, especially as the US is exacerbating it trying to split Sadr from SIIC, but I'm not sure when the Shia power struggle really breaks out of the southern Shia strongholds.
It seems fairly inevitable that the more upperclass, in the government SIIC and the outsider poor Sadr movement will eventually come into a larger conflict, the question, I guess, is whether that happens before the Sunni subjugation or after.
The spoils are so big for the victor.
By
mikevotes, at 1:44 PM
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