Political bits - The First Primary
With the first '08 presidential fundraising deadline tomorrow, '08 politics have rocketed to the surface again. You have all of the campaigns scrambling to lower expectations and raise money.
On the Dem side, the Clinton camp looks set to blow out everyone else. There's even talk of them "lapping" the field. Everyone's expecting a huge number, and the Clinton camp isn't even bothering to lower expectations. (although I love Terry McAuliffe's tongue in cheek $10 trillion in the first quarter.)
Obama on the other hand, knowing that he can't compete with Clinton head to head, is trying to emphasize the number of donors (targeted at 75,000) to portray himself as the man of the people.
On the Republican side, the stuff I've been reading seems filled with the McCain campaign lowering expectations claiming they got a "late start." (like August 2004 is a late start?) I think they're going to turn in a number that reflects their floundering campaign.
Romney is expected to turn in a big number, although in the big picture, he is spending tons and falling in the polls. (He has even taken the unprecedented step of allowing his college volunteers to take 10% of all the money they raise.)
And, I would guess that Giuliani is probably doing very well. He's held a ton of fundraisers, but it's all the negative hit pieces in the last two days that tells me he must be doing well. (Giuliani faces questions about 9/11, Testimony by Giuliani Indicates He Was Briefed on Kerik in ’00, and more.) Somebody's trying to tar him right before the reporting deadline.
None of this should really matter all that much this far out, but it does, not because fundraising 10 months before the first primary substantially affects the race, but because the media will use this to determine the characterizations of their coverage.
The unstoppable Clinton machine, McCain's floundering campaign, Romney's inability to gain traction despite money, Obama, man of the people. Before the candidates begin national advertising, these characterizations will define them.
This far out, it has little to do with actual votes. With the media's collusion, the weathy get to hold the first and arguably most important US primary. We should know the results in a day or two.
(PS. No early word on the Dodd behemoth.)
On the Dem side, the Clinton camp looks set to blow out everyone else. There's even talk of them "lapping" the field. Everyone's expecting a huge number, and the Clinton camp isn't even bothering to lower expectations. (although I love Terry McAuliffe's tongue in cheek $10 trillion in the first quarter.)
Obama on the other hand, knowing that he can't compete with Clinton head to head, is trying to emphasize the number of donors (targeted at 75,000) to portray himself as the man of the people.
On the Republican side, the stuff I've been reading seems filled with the McCain campaign lowering expectations claiming they got a "late start." (like August 2004 is a late start?) I think they're going to turn in a number that reflects their floundering campaign.
Romney is expected to turn in a big number, although in the big picture, he is spending tons and falling in the polls. (He has even taken the unprecedented step of allowing his college volunteers to take 10% of all the money they raise.)
And, I would guess that Giuliani is probably doing very well. He's held a ton of fundraisers, but it's all the negative hit pieces in the last two days that tells me he must be doing well. (Giuliani faces questions about 9/11, Testimony by Giuliani Indicates He Was Briefed on Kerik in ’00, and more.) Somebody's trying to tar him right before the reporting deadline.
None of this should really matter all that much this far out, but it does, not because fundraising 10 months before the first primary substantially affects the race, but because the media will use this to determine the characterizations of their coverage.
The unstoppable Clinton machine, McCain's floundering campaign, Romney's inability to gain traction despite money, Obama, man of the people. Before the candidates begin national advertising, these characterizations will define them.
This far out, it has little to do with actual votes. With the media's collusion, the weathy get to hold the first and arguably most important US primary. We should know the results in a day or two.
(PS. No early word on the Dodd behemoth.)
posted by mikevotes at
7:52 AM
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