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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Monday, November 06, 2006

In poker, they call it a "tell"

I think this is very interesting.
The RNC just sent out detailed talking points about how unreliable exit polls have been over the past several elections. The key arguments are that exits polls typically have a Democratic bias and have wrongly predicted Democratic victories in recent years.

According to a source, the RNC expects leaked exit polls to show Democratic victories and do not want the news to discourage Republican voters from going to the polls late in the day.

So, they're trying to set up a pre-response to big losses in the eastern time zone to keep turnout up in the west.

Despite all their words, what does that tell you about the confidence level at the RNC?

5 Comments:

  • I think it shows they know that it's hard to cover up vote theft when you have exit polls show a different winner than the Republican candidate. just look at the states from 2004 where there was massive vote fraud going on (Ohio, New Mexico) and you'll find that these were the only states where the exit polling didn't match up the outcome.

    By Blogger Lew Scannon, at 9:29 PM  

  • I agree with Lew. They're going to try and steal this baby.

    By Blogger Reality-Based Educator, at 5:57 AM  

  • Yeah. Uh-huh. It has nothing to do with over-representation of Democrats in most major media polls taken in the last month.

    How else do you explain this sudden 'tightening' of the race in the final hours?

    The media has been trying to supress the Republican turnout by predicting disaster (just like in 2004) and then have to 'tighten' it up a bit as they get closer to the election to reflect what will actually happen so they don't look like idiots as they did in 04. Remember the exit polling data---it was grossly overstated in favor of the Democrats.

    But, it's on script of 'reality-based educator' to start throwing 'they stole the election' excues around.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 7:32 AM  

  • Wow,

    Kool-aid drinker believes in conspriracy theories that are so complicated that they couldn't even be pulled off for logistical reasons.

    I think he ought to adjust his tin-foil hat because the reception is a little fuzzy here.

    By Blogger Praguetwin, at 7:51 AM  

  • Lew/Reality, that's always been my theory. If the House comes down to two districts, cheating is in play. If it comes down to 15, it's not worth the risk.

    .....

    Kool aid, Wow. Two points. First, it depends on which poll, now, doesn't it? There's been some tightening, but different polls are showing widely different results. Do you believe Webb up by 8? that's one poll from yesterday, and it's as much crap as the one that shows Cardin-Steele even. Look at the averages, look at the trends. Don't cherry pick.

    And, frankly, before you point to Reality's tin foil hat, take a look at your own. For god sakes, the entire media has been conducting a carefully coordinated effort to supress Republican turnout by hewing to a tightly guided narrative? Tens of thousands of reporters of all political stripes sitting on the biggest story of the century, and not one of them calls Fox news, human events, the Wash Times to break it? C'mon now.

    ...

    Praguetwin, I responded to his before I read yours, but exactly.

    Mike

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 8:41 AM  

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