It's all about turnout now.
I'm more or less throwing out individual polls at this point. Trying to make sense out of the wobbles now is more or less crazy.
There was a ton of press yesterday about closing figures on the generic ballot question, but it was a poll or two. CNN has the last five from different organizations collected and the average is 53-41. (registered voters as far as I can tell.)
So, take a deep breath, step back, and don't freak out.
(CNN's latest poll, Bush approval 35/61. Generic ballot 58/38 likely voters. So, don't freak out over one poll and don't rejoice over this one. Look at the averages, look at the trends.)
There was a ton of press yesterday about closing figures on the generic ballot question, but it was a poll or two. CNN has the last five from different organizations collected and the average is 53-41. (registered voters as far as I can tell.)
So, take a deep breath, step back, and don't freak out.
(CNN's latest poll, Bush approval 35/61. Generic ballot 58/38 likely voters. So, don't freak out over one poll and don't rejoice over this one. Look at the averages, look at the trends.)
posted by mikevotes at
9:34 AM
4 Comments:
I thought it was all about cheating with electronic voting machines.
By
Mike, at 12:23 PM
Well, it may well be.
But, towards that, I'm taking the attitude that there's really nothing we can do about it at this point. There may be specific problems, but since the only record is actually in the machines there's really nothing to do at this point.
So, I accept it as a possibility but since there's nothing to do......
Mike
By
mikevotes, at 1:13 PM
The pundit consensus seems to be 15-25 seat gain in the House, a few (but not enough) in the Senate. I don't know enough about the particular races to disagree with that general assessment...
so I'll go with a number of specific predictions instead.
-Joe Negron will pull an upset and hold Foley's seat.
-Dan Rather will crawl out of the woodwork and compare the races to a toaster, a beach ball and really nasty gum that someone stuck underneath a table.
-Obama will receive a plurality of votes in at least 7 different house districts.
-Once taking the House, the Democrats will actually take some relevant action.
---
le-enfant-terrible.blogspot.com
By
mephi, at 3:51 PM
Don't make fun of "go get Emma from the kitchen" Dan Rather. Sure he stayed on too long, but like football announcer Keith Jackson, he added color through his dementia.
And, I agree with the 18-25, 4-5 estimates. For the Dems to take the Senate, they need all the breaks and that's just tough.
I think Negron has a shot. The Foley name has lost some of it's sting,so I could definitely see it happening.
And, I don't know how effective the Dems will be, but their first 100 days agenda, renegotiate drug prices, minimum wage, enacting9-11 recommendations, stem cell all have popular support.
Mike
By
mikevotes, at 4:21 PM
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