Hmmmm... Who to believe?
A new AP poll says Bush approval is back down to 33%, and that 19% of Bush 2004 voters are ready to vote Dem in 2006. "More sobering for the GOP are the number of voters who backed Bush in 2004 who are ready to vote Democratic in the fall's congressional elections 19 percent."(55 Dem/37 Repub on generic congressman)
(NYTimes) "A senior Republican consultant with ties to the White House.... said he had recently conducted a focus group in a highly contested Congressional district in the Philadelphia suburbs. He was shocked, he said, at the degree of hostility among Republicans toward the war..."
Or maybe you believe the "leaked" GOP "internal" poll results in USNews Washington Whispers. "Many Democrats may hate the war in Iraq and itch to dump the president, but a new GOP survey shows that Republican base voters stand ready to jam the November polls to return their team to Congress."
So, let's see.... AP/Ipsos public polling which confirms the general trend, a Republican off the record confirming the general trend, or polling produced without backing data by the Republican party promoted on Drudge. I'm just not sure who to believe.
(Related: CQ politics has moved a number of Republican races one notch towards the Dems.)
(NYTimes) "A senior Republican consultant with ties to the White House.... said he had recently conducted a focus group in a highly contested Congressional district in the Philadelphia suburbs. He was shocked, he said, at the degree of hostility among Republicans toward the war..."
Or maybe you believe the "leaked" GOP "internal" poll results in USNews Washington Whispers. "Many Democrats may hate the war in Iraq and itch to dump the president, but a new GOP survey shows that Republican base voters stand ready to jam the November polls to return their team to Congress."
So, let's see.... AP/Ipsos public polling which confirms the general trend, a Republican off the record confirming the general trend, or polling produced without backing data by the Republican party promoted on Drudge. I'm just not sure who to believe.
(Related: CQ politics has moved a number of Republican races one notch towards the Dems.)
posted by mikevotes at
7:50 AM
5 Comments:
A FOX NEWS poll had Dems with an 18 point lead over the GOP in a generic Congressional ballot. Presumably some of that lead is from Republicans ready to vote Democratic too.
But let's see what happens now post-London terror arrests. Obviously terrorism is the ONLY card Rove/Mehlman/Bush have left to play, but I bet it still brings home some of those Republicans debating about voting for a Democrat. Will it be enough? I dunno, but I bet we do see a temporary uptick in the polls for the GOP and for Bush. And I bet Rove/Mehlman/Bush have a few other terrorism tricks up their sleeve to keep that issue front and center all the way through November.
We'll see. With Dems actually arguing back that a) the iraq war has undermined the war on terror and taken a lot of money away from homeland security and b) we're actually creating more terrorists with our current policies than capturing/killing, I think some of the advantage the GOP enjoys on the issue can be nullified.
By
Reality-Based Educator, at 8:56 AM
I agree with your last point. I really don't think the terrorism card plays as well for the Republicans with the shifting perception of the Iraq war.
Also, notice how quickly the coverage of this has lost alot of the fear element. Yesterday's coverage was shock and "what if?" Today's seems to be details and then is followed by Israel news building a connection there. Just an impression.
Mike
By
mikevotes, at 10:42 AM
Oh, and, remember that everyone said Israel attacking Lebanon would help Bush, but if you look at his numbers that doesn't hold up.
Mike
By
mikevotes, at 10:46 AM
I'm surprisd the Repubs would be releasing that kind of story so early. They should, under normal stratehies, be pushing themselves as the underdog.
Either devilishly cunning or stupid.
By
Cartledge, at 2:57 PM
I think they're trying to change the story line during the August recess and vacation. Nobody's in Washington to make statements right now, so I think they're trying to use this to influence the coverage.
Mike
By
mikevotes, at 3:06 PM
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