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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Sunday, April 16, 2006

If you liked the assault on Fallujah and Tal Afar....

This may be a necessary step, but I don't see how it goes down without alot of blood on all sides being shed. So many questions on this. Notice the inclusion of political considerations later in the article.
THE American military is planning a “second liberation of Baghdad” to be carried out with the Iraqi army when a new government is installed.

Pacifying the lawless capital is regarded as essential to establishing the authority of the incoming government and preparing for a significant withdrawal of American troops.



Strategic and tactical plans are being laid by US commanders in Iraq and at the US army base in Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, under Lieutenant- General David Petraeus. He is regarded as an innovative officer and was formerly responsible for training Iraqi troops....


President George W Bush and Donald Rumsfeld, the defence secretary, are under intense pressure to prove to the American public that Iraq is not slipping into anarchy and civil war. An effective military campaign could provide the White House with a bounce in the polls before the mid-term congressional elections in November. With Bush’s approval ratings below 40%, the vote is shaping up to be a Republican rout. .....

The operation is likely to take place towards the end of the summer, giving the newly appointed government time to establish itself. If all goes to plan, US troop withdrawals could take place before the end of the year. In the absence of progress by then, the war may come to be seen by the American public as a lost cause.


So many questions on this. At the same moment that Rumsfeld is being criticized for "micromanaging" and taking decision making away from the generals in the field, this is being planned by one of Rumsfeld's darlings in Leavenworth, Kansas. Also, I would question how "highly regarded" Petraeus should be if his claim to fame is the training of Iraqi forces.

The plan supposedly calls for lots of US close air support including F-16's and AC130s FIRING INTO BAGHDAD. Petraeus's theory is that it will be possible to cordon off areas and fight small battles comprising only a few blocks, that the fight will be containable. The intent is to let the Iraqis do the fighting.

I really don't know of a better solution, but in the mire of Baghdad, just how are they supposed to determine who is a combatant and who isn't? If this is a real effort, I don't know how there will not be massive civilian casualties. I don't see how this doesn't create a backlash.

I'll leave the domestic politics to you, but this may a battle we win to lose the war.

There's alot in this article, it's worth a read.

6 Comments:

  • Mike, it's just the latest and greatest "plan" to win the war. It's doomed to failure because it's a plan dependent on the use of military force to "secure" an area.

    The fact remains that there are many more of "them" there than "us". There'll be a lot of dead people and we'll be no further down the road.

    The parallels to Vietnam are uncanny ......

    By Blogger Greyhair, at 12:38 PM  

  • That's a very, very, very good point.

    The answer is "hearts and minds", providing a competent government, security and a sense of future, of hope, but we're gonna try to bomb our way to peace.

    And, my experience with Vietnam is purely historical, I'm 37, so I was just too young to know what was going on, but I do find the constant rotation through tactical metaphors reminiscent. "Clear and Hold" etc.

    But the answer is getting out of the territorial model into a cultural one.

    Great comment. I'm going to be chewing on it for awhile.

    Mike

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 2:49 PM  

  • This has disaster written all over it. They going to target the Sunnis first to "test" whether the Shia militias are a national army or a sectarian one? And leave troops behind to rebuild in a week what they haven't been able to do in three years?

    Clueless.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 4:38 PM  

  • greyhair beat me to the punch on this. Vietnam again, sure sounds like it.
    To add to the analogy, just watch now as Iraq vets return to be treated as pariahs.
    The failure to learn from history is not just a disaster for Iraq, but for the US and coalition countries as well.

    By Blogger Cartledge, at 5:08 PM  

  • Libby, both sides think we're favoring the other side, so whatever we do, it's going to engender dislike, distrust, and further and deeper resistance.

    And, the "Clear, hold and rebuild" strategy didn't work in the small towns with low density. I can't imagine that in the midst of a civil war it's going to work. If I were guessing, I would bet that we "clear" areas (a great euphemism for killing) the Iraqi troops hold them as long as their quiet, but following on the US departure, the different factions will try to claim that area as theirs thus bringing more violence.

    In other words, we'll probably free the area of control then leaving it to be contested over.

    And, Cartledge, I don't see that happening at this point. I think that the blame has been largely planted on the politicians even for some of the more egregious crimes like Abu Ghraib and some of the trigger happy killings. It's not being attached to the front line soldiers the way it was in Vietnam. I would really expect their return to be met with a rueful smile and a "well you tried; it wasn't your fault."

    But the Vietnam parallels are there.

    Mike

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 5:50 PM  

  • I have to agree with everyone on this. It sounds like going fishing with a case of dynamite. They're bound to get a couple of big ones and a lot of minnows innocently swimming around.

    Imagine the number of refugees who will be created by this operation. They can't be serious. Can they?

    By Blogger Lynn, at 10:26 PM  

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